COL11A1 as a potential prognostic target for oral squamous cell carcinoma Short title：Prognostic target for oral squamous cell carcinoma

Background: Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is a malignant tumor of epithelial origin. Explore correlation between COL11A1 and prognosis of OSCC, provide a new direction for treatment and prognosis of patients. Methods Bioinformatics was used to screen and identify role of COL11A1 on OSCC. 200 patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma were recruited. Clinical and follow-up data were recorded and COL11A1 expression levels were tested. Pearson chi-square test and Spearman correlation coefficient were used to analyze relationship between prognosis and related parameters in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression, univariate and multivariate Cox proportional risk regression were used for further analysis, survival curve was drawn. Results Through bioinformatics analysis, OSCC patients with higher expression of COL11A1 have poor overall survival compare with OSCC patients with lower expression of COL11A1 (HR = 1.32, P = 0.047). Pearson chi-square test showed that age (P = 0.011), tumor grade (P = 0.023), COL11A1 (P < 0.001) was significantly correlated with prognosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma. Spearman correlation coefficient analysis showed that age (ρ = 0.179, P = 0.011), tumor grade (ρ = 0.161, P = 0.023), COL11A1 (ρ = 0.561, P < 0.001) were significantly correlated with prognosis of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma. Univariate Logistic regression analysis showed age (OR = 2.102, 95%CI: 1.180–3.746, P = 0.012), tumor grade (OR = 1.919, 95%CI: 1.093–3.372, P = 0.023) and COL11A1 (OR = 12.775, 95%CI: 6.509–25.071, P < 0.001). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that COL11A1 (OR = 12.066, 95%CI: 6.042–24.096, P < 0.001) was significantly associated with prognosis of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that age (HR = 1.592, 95%CI: 1.150–2.205, P = 0.005), tumor grade (HR = 1.460, 95%CI: 1.067–1.999, P = 0.018) and COL11A1 (HR = 1.848, 95%CI: 1.340–2.548, P < 0.001) were significantly correlated with survival time of oral squamous cell carcinoma patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that tumor grade (HR = 1.466, 95%CI: 1.064–2.020, P = 0.019) and COL11A1 (HR = 1.645, 95%CI: 1.164–2.325, P = 0.005) were significantly correlated with survival time of oral squamous cell carcinoma patients. Conclusion COL11A1 is significantly correlated with occurrence of oral squamous cell carcinoma.