Resolving Transboundary Water Conflicts: Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis Using an Improved GMCR Model

Abstract Accurately and objectively simulating the dynamic evolution of the behaviors of different decision-makers (DMs) is essential for identifying solutions to transboundary water conflicts. This research proposes an improved Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) based on the benefits of DMs’ behaviors to model the dynamic evolution of transboundary water conflicts. Additionally, the influence of third-party intervention on conflicts is investigated in depth. A demonstration area in the Yangtze River Delta on ecologically friendly development (DAYRD) in China is taken as the case study area. The results indicate that the improved GMCR model based on the benefit function can not only clearly identify the dynamic evolution path of transboundary water conflicts into cooperation, but also effectively avoid the influence of the subjective factors of researchers or experts in traditional methods. In addition, a third party with higher powers is the key to resolving transboundary water conflicts in the DAYRD. The implementation of punishment measures by a third party can change the status quo of water conflicts and boost effective cooperation among governments. The punishment amount should be greater than the protection costs shared by local governments. These findings provide experience for the resolution of transboundary water conflicts and enhance our understanding of the role of third parties in transforming conflict into cooperation.