Projected Health Impacts of Wildfire Smoke Exposure in Canada Under Future Climate

2025 · doi:10.22541/au.173921585.55756606/v1
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Abstract

The Canadian wildfires of 2023 highlight the severe threat to public health from smoke exposure. This study investigates the future distribution of wildfires and their smoke impacts under the SSP585 climate scenario. Utilizing the Canadian National Fire Database, we analyze historical wildfire ignition frequency and size distribution. We correlate wildfire with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), using historical and projected VPD data derived from CMIP6. We simulate about 1 million synthetic events, each with calculated smoke impacts. Our preliminary findings indicate a significant increase (35%-78%) in public exposure to wildfire smoke (PM > 50 μg/m³), with Eastern Canada being particularly affected as well as a few major cities in the US. This intensifies the public health threat from future wildfire smoke, necessitating urgent mitigation and adaptation strategies.
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Abstract

The Canadian wildfires of 2023 highlight the severe threat to public health from smoke exposure. This study investigates the future distribution of wildfires and their smoke impacts under the SSP585 climate scenario. Utilizing the Canadian National Fire Database, we analyze historical wildfire ignition frequency and size distribution. We correlate wildfire with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), using historical and projected VPD data derived from CMIP6. We simulate about 1 million synthetic events, each with calculated smoke impacts. Our preliminary findings indicate a significant increase (35%-78%) in public exposure to wildfire smoke (PM > 50 μg/m³), with Eastern Canada being particularly affected as well as a few major cities in the US. This intensifies the public health threat from future wildfire smoke, necessitating urgent mitigation and adaptation strategies. Supplementary Material File (projected health impacts of wildfire smoke exposure in canada under future climate.pdf) - Download - 707.90 KB Information & Authors Information Version history Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License.

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Authors Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 1547views 126downloads Citations Download citation Yanrui (Kevin) Li, Jianxiong Sheng. Projected Health Impacts of Wildfire Smoke Exposure in Canada Under Future Climate. Authorea. 10 February 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173921585.55756606/v1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173921585.55756606/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu.

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