Impact Analysis of Ice Throw from Wind Turbines on Electrical Substation and Transmission Infrastructure.

In cold-climate wind farms, a hazard of growing concern is ice throw, where ice fragments formed on turbine blades are dislodged and projected at high velocity. These fragments pose significant risks to electrical substations and transmission infrastructure, typically sited near wind farms to facilitate power evacuation. This study quantifies spatial reach and impact energy of thrown ice fragments and evaluates whether the industry-standard safety buffer adequately protects grid assets. A validated 3D MATLAB model was developed to compute fragment trajectories under varying structural, operational and environmental parameters (blade length, wind speed, temperature). A case study of Kilbraur Wind Farm is presented, integrating site-specific layout, meteorological data and Monte Carlo sampling. Results indicate that the industry-standard safety buffer underestimates maximum throw distances at Kilbraur, as occasional outliers exceed the 240 m radius. Approximately 50% of fragments land within 100 m of the parent turbine, with impact energies averaging 410 J and peaks exceeding 2000 J. Results also show that ice formed at higher sub-zero temperatures exhibits greater spatial dispersion and yields higher impact energies. Based on these findings, mitigation strategies are proposed including structural and operational adjustments.