The dynamic relationship between COVID-19 cases and SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations across time and space: considerations for model training data sets

During the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater-based surveillance has been used alongside diagnostic testing to monitor infection rates. With the decline in cases reported to public health departments due to at-home testing, wastewater data may serve as the primary input for epidemiological models, but training these models is not straightforward. We explored factors affecting noise and bias in the ratio between wastewater and case data collected in 26 sewersheds in California from October 2020 to March 2022. The strength of the relationship between wastewater and case data appeared dependent on sampling frequency and population size, but was not increased by wastewater normalization to flow rate or case count normalization to testing rates. Additionally, the lead and lag times between wastewater and case data varied over time and space, and the ratio of log-transformed individual cases to wastewater concentrations changed over time. This ratio increased sequentially in the Epsilon/Alpha, Delta, and Omicron BA.1 variant surges of COVID-19 and was also related to the diagnostic testing rate. Based on this analysis, we present a framework of scenarios describing the dynamics of the case to wastewater ratio to aid in data handling decisions for ongoing modeling efforts.