Vulnerability Assessment of Dams and Reservoirs to Climate Change in the Mediterranean Region: The case of Almopeos Dam in Northern Greece

Dam and Reservoir (D&R) systems during their long history suffered from hundreds of failures, whose mechanisms are accelerated by climate change. To assess the vulnerability of D&R systems to climate change a methodology is presented based on literature that is consistent with the EC technical guidelines. This methodology includes (i) the typologization of the groups of the potential climate hazards, the components of the D&R systems, and the impacts of the groups of hazards on D&R systems, and (ii) the presentation of climate indicators that are usually employed in D&R systems. The typologization of the methodology facilitates its fast application and its comparison with other methodologies. The methodology is applied to the Almopeos D&R system in Greece. Three General Circulation Model and Regional Climate Model combinations from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble are selected, bias-corrected against ERA5Land and used to estimate the values of the selected indicators and thus to quantify the potential climate impacts. The vulnerability analysis identified three groups of climate hazards that are (i) temperature increase and extreme heat, (ii) precipitation decrease, aridity and droughts and (iii) extreme precipitation and flooding, as potential significant hazards, for which a detailed risk assessment is required to propose the required adaptation strategies.