Evaluating climate extremes and their association with floods in the Baro Akobo River basin using CMIP6 and Hydrological Modelling

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This study evaluates climate extremes and their association with floods in the Baro Akobo River Basin, Ethiopia, using CMIP6 climate models and HEC-HMS hydrological modeling. We use daily precipitation and temperature from 30 meteorological stations, and 12 CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The GCMs are evaluated at the daily time scale with observed data over the period from 1985 to 2014, resulting in MPI-ESM1-2-HR, INM-CM4-8, FGOALS-g3, and GFDL-ESM4 the top four best-performing models in the basin. We utilize the Expert Team Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI) to assess climate extremes in the basin, focusing on five precipitation-based and four temperature-based indices due to their anticipated correlation with flood events. We then simulate peak discharge at the basin’s outlet using the HEC-HMS hydrological model to correlate annual maximum peak flow (Q max ) with climate extreme indices. The results show that during the mid-century (2041–2070), all precipitation extremes, except for Consecutive Wet Days (CWD), demonstrate a strong correlation with Q max , characterized by correlation coefficients ranging from 0.54 to 0.87 under both scenarios. In contrast, by the end of the century (2071–2100), CWD and the Maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1day) exhibit a weak correlation; however, Total Precipitation (PRCPTOT), Maximum 5-day precipitation (Rx5day), and Numbers of Heavy Precipitation Days (R10mm) display strong correlations, ranging from 0.55 to 0.85 for both scenarios. All temperature extremes have a relatively strong positive correlation with Q max except for the coldest night temperature (TNn) during the mid-century in both scenarios. During the end-century, except for the Warmest Night Temperature (TNx), all temperature extremes negatively correlate with Q max . The results further reveal an increasing trend in PRCPTOT, Rx5day, and R10mm during the mid and end of the century, suggesting a greater likelihood of heavy precipitation events that may elevate the flooding risk in the basin. ,. Therefore, further research is recommended to evaluate the extent and impact of the anticipated flooding in the basin, which will help devise appropriate mitigation strategies. Climate Change CMIP6 ETCCDI Flood HEC HMS Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 29 May, 2025 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Accept 30 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Apr, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 12 Apr, 2025 Editor invited by journal 12 Apr, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 27 Mar, 2025 First submitted to journal 24 Mar, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5409263","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":442148813,"identity":"ae8d3fc3-2d37-4581-8584-c54e67be4f79","order_by":0,"name":"sintayehu Abera Wondimu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZjB5gIGNvf/hAyCLh48ILYwNIC18PGeYDUBa2IiwB6JFTiKHTQLEJahFvp33+GOemjtybAy5xyq/5tjJsDEwP3x0A48Wg8N8ic08x54ZszGcS7stuy0Z6DA2Y+McfFqYeQybedgOJ7YxNpjdltzGDNTCwyaNT4t8M0jLv8P1bcwMZsWS2+oJa2E4DNTC23Y4gY2Nx4zx47bDhLUYALXMnNv3zLCNhy1ZmnHbcR42ZgJ+ke8/Y/Dhzbc78vLzHx/8+HNbtT0/e/PDx3gdhgyYecAkscpBgPEHKapHwSgYBaNgxAAAqQdDbX8cKXIAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-8591-2763","institution":"Ethiopia Meteorological Institute, Addis Ababa","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"sintayehu","middleName":"Abera","lastName":"Wondimu","suffix":""},{"id":442148814,"identity":"eaffba02-5110-4de2-96e3-b71176e2853e","order_by":1,"name":"Tadesse Tujuba Kenea","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Arba Minch Water Technology Institute: Arba Minch University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tadesse","middleName":"Tujuba","lastName":"Kenea","suffix":""},{"id":442148815,"identity":"2ef83865-9d6c-431a-a975-c7924ce2db79","order_by":2,"name":"Kumneger Elias Tafesse","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Arba Minch Water Technology Institute: Arba Minch University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kumneger","middleName":"Elias","lastName":"Tafesse","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-11-07 10:53:32","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5409263/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5409263/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07349-2","type":"published","date":"2025-05-29T15:57:39+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":83783064,"identity":"2bbdde7a-3258-4daf-8029-d7e4e55a1c1b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-02 16:10:26","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":3228871,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SintayehuManscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5409263/v1_covered_462816b5-429b-42ba-94b4-4032efac3d65.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Evaluating climate extremes and their association with floods in the Baro Akobo River basin using CMIP6 and Hydrological Modelling","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"natural-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nhaz","sideBox":"Learn more about [Natural Hazards](https://www.springer.com/journal/11069)","snPcode":"11069","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11069/3","title":"Natural Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Climate Change, CMIP6, ETCCDI, Flood, HEC HMS","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5409263/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5409263/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eRecent studies indicate climate change-driven extreme weather events have led to frequent flooding in many East African countries, including Ethiopia. This study evaluates climate extremes and their association with floods in the Baro Akobo River Basin, Ethiopia, using CMIP6 climate models and HEC-HMS hydrological modeling. We use daily precipitation and temperature from 30 meteorological stations, and 12 CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The GCMs are evaluated at the daily time scale with observed data over the period from 1985 to 2014, resulting in MPI-ESM1-2-HR, INM-CM4-8, FGOALS-g3, and GFDL-ESM4 the top four best-performing models in the basin. We utilize the Expert Team Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI) to assess climate extremes in the basin, focusing on five precipitation-based and four temperature-based indices due to their anticipated correlation with flood events. We then simulate peak discharge at the basin\u0026rsquo;s outlet using the HEC-HMS hydrological model to correlate annual maximum peak flow (Q\u003csub\u003emax\u003c/sub\u003e) with climate extreme indices. The results show that during the mid-century (2041\u0026ndash;2070), all precipitation extremes, except for Consecutive Wet Days (CWD), demonstrate a strong correlation with Q\u003csub\u003emax\u003c/sub\u003e, characterized by correlation coefficients ranging from 0.54 to 0.87 under both scenarios. In contrast, by the end of the century (2071\u0026ndash;2100), CWD and the Maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1day) exhibit a weak correlation; however, Total Precipitation (PRCPTOT), Maximum 5-day precipitation (Rx5day), and Numbers of Heavy Precipitation Days (R10mm) display strong correlations, ranging from 0.55 to 0.85 for both scenarios. All temperature extremes have a relatively strong positive correlation with Q\u003csub\u003emax\u003c/sub\u003e except for the coldest night temperature (TNn) during the mid-century in both scenarios. During the end-century, except for the Warmest Night Temperature (TNx), all temperature extremes negatively correlate with Q\u003csub\u003emax\u003c/sub\u003e. The results further reveal an increasing trend in PRCPTOT, Rx5day, and R10mm during the mid and end of the century, suggesting a greater likelihood of heavy precipitation events that may elevate the flooding risk in the basin. ,. Therefore, further research is recommended to evaluate the extent and impact of the anticipated flooding in the basin, which will help devise appropriate mitigation strategies.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Evaluating climate extremes and their association with floods in the Baro Akobo River basin using CMIP6 and Hydrological Modelling","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-04-15 03:29:53","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5409263/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Accept","date":"2025-04-30T05:30:45+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2025-04-13T08:13:09+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-04-13T00:33:43+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"Natural Hazards","date":"2025-04-12T14:57:26+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-03-27T06:16:55+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Natural Hazards","date":"2025-03-24T04:08:29+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"natural-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nhaz","sideBox":"Learn more about [Natural Hazards](https://www.springer.com/journal/11069)","snPcode":"11069","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11069/3","title":"Natural Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"8923c5ac-2543-4dc9-b33d-e62986072201","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 15th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-06-02T16:05:58+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-5409263","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07349-2","journal":{"identity":"natural-hazards","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Natural Hazards"},"publishedOn":"2025-05-29 15:57:39","publishedOnDateReadable":"May 29th, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-04-15 03:29:53","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s11069-025-07349-2","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07349-2","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-5409263","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5409263","identity":"rs-5409263","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}