Functional diversity among crop models reveals contrasting resilience of soybean and maize to heatwaves and CO2 enrichment

Functional diversity among crop models reveals contrasting resilience of soybean and maize to heatwaves and CO2 enrichment | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Functional diversity among crop models reveals contrasting resilience of soybean and maize to heatwaves and CO 2 enrichment Fedor Egorov, Yaron Michael, David Helman This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8088531/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Sustaining food production under increasing heat extremes requires models that accurately capture crop responses to multiple interacting stresses. We compared three process-based crop models—WOFOST, BioCro, and DSSAT (CROPGRO-Soybean, CERES-Maize)—to assess how structural differences influence simulated resilience of irrigated soybean ( Glycine max ) and maize ( Zea mays ) in the U.S. Midwest. Scenarios included uniform warming, elevated atmospheric CO₂, and reproductive-stage heatwaves. All models reproduced historical yields, yet projected sharply different sensitivities. WOFOST showed strong CO₂ fertilization responses but moderate warming effects; DSSAT produced steep heat-induced declines linked to explicit grain-fill temperature functions; BioCro displayed intermediate behavior driven by biochemical canopy photosynthesis. Across models, maize yields declined by 25–46% at + 4°C, while soybean losses (8–25%) were partially offset by CO₂ gains (+ 18 to + 44%). Short heatwaves reduced yields by 1–5%, especially during flowering and seed filling. These consistent structural “fingerprints” demonstrate that model divergence reflects underlying physiological formulations rather than random uncertainty. Advancing functionally transparent and physiologically consistent crop models will improve the credibility of climate impact assessments and support sustainable intensification and adaptation planning in a warming world. Agronomy Agricultural Engineering Climate Analysis and Modeling Crop modeling process-based models heat stress CO₂ fertilization warming scenarios maize (Zea mays) soybean (Glycine max) climate resilience sustainable intensification mechanistic transparency Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files SupplementofEgorovetal.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8088531","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":543433164,"identity":"2f854e29-4bcf-4a08-8710-7daf5544ecd3","order_by":0,"name":"Fedor Egorov","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, Hebrew University of Jerusalem","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fedor","middleName":"","lastName":"Egorov","suffix":""},{"id":543433454,"identity":"4fdf98e8-f1ff-4674-b942-324e45114eed","order_by":1,"name":"Yaron Michael","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, Hebrew University of Jerusalem","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yaron","middleName":"","lastName":"Michael","suffix":""},{"id":543433455,"identity":"a90d4601-6501-44bf-aa67-edd8368f3519","order_by":2,"name":"David Helman","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0571-8161","institution":"Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, Hebrew University of Jerusalem","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"David","middleName":"","lastName":"Helman","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-11-11 15:41:06","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8088531/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8088531/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":95714645,"identity":"aa4865a6-3280-494e-b8e6-ecb12425c290","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:58","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":16794637,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"msEgorovfunctionalcropmodeling.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/a4b46c210691409aaf91db60.docx"},{"id":95800569,"identity":"02e2d18d-7d0e-4401-ae6a-94f86825fc5f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-13 08:22:54","extension":"json","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":342,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"rs8088531.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/ad7aa2685b599b1394863c16.json"},{"id":95714637,"identity":"d95af1bd-398e-4a72-8809-a30f76f0a10a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:58","extension":"xml","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":236935,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"rs80885310enriched.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/3d57e3dcc871a3985dafedb8.xml"},{"id":95714634,"identity":"f77db79f-b088-4b12-9c7b-4226ee4dbd32","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:58","extension":"eps","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":207,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"drawingimage1.eps","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/25ad7253c68a72ed55e82edd.eps"},{"id":95714635,"identity":"fe3bec01-43f8-4d63-a575-b01a06186aec","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:58","extension":"eps","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":207,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"drawingimage1.eps","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/63250c1a6d774895da3962ac.eps"},{"id":95714636,"identity":"9580c9f7-35f2-42ad-b240-206c10808724","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:58","extension":"emf","order_by":5,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1581364,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.emf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/371facdc398ba0bad14f472f.emf"},{"id":95800612,"identity":"8d4b8f66-0ed3-463c-81df-3ef3c8eb9775","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-13 08:23:01","extension":"emf","order_by":6,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1157312,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage10.emf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/e8814a88a7c35af141c87f3a.emf"},{"id":95801129,"identity":"bc962471-a026-4faa-855a-a39c12544f6f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-13 08:24:31","extension":"emf","order_by":7,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":3122920,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage11.emf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/e4297c5b1c45df4c60cecb12.emf"},{"id":95801179,"identity":"7088b7f4-435a-40cf-a442-46a7f6448870","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-13 08:24:39","extension":"emf","order_by":8,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1948296,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage12.emf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/886ba7bd4d90525fa23d39ac.emf"},{"id":95714640,"identity":"6b66c8c8-40cc-4237-8da7-539b4330a9cc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:58","extension":"emf","order_by":9,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1887528,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage13.emf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/2cbac72d586442b46fdcb5a6.emf"},{"id":95800210,"identity":"6b7337ff-bd12-4c3c-9ec9-162eb28aa3d5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-13 08:21:52","extension":"emf","order_by":10,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1092568,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage2.emf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/ac4ab2154cb220855e5f6dc4.emf"},{"id":95800683,"identity":"3458dcc9-556a-4e1b-b61c-e034be634f9a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-13 08:23:10","extension":"emf","order_by":11,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":3048352,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage3.emf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/3928a8caf955b375ae49910e.emf"},{"id":95714657,"identity":"c690324d-877f-4cda-ba8d-981857bed34a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:59","extension":"emf","order_by":12,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":3558784,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage4.emf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/2b7c83fff6fc9e60b13d43a6.emf"},{"id":95714659,"identity":"0f244d3c-aab8-4576-8abb-b960a695bfa3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:59","extension":"emf","order_by":13,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":3503020,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage5.emf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/73f1ae9467c682df0a8c4151.emf"},{"id":95800027,"identity":"c5527cf8-0429-489a-bcbd-2f293cf689ac","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-13 08:21:24","extension":"emf","order_by":14,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":2497288,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage6.emf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/5d6378cdba9d75cf36a79e92.emf"},{"id":95714658,"identity":"8138bbf0-872f-45e9-9d57-a165f8233c3f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:59","extension":"emf","order_by":15,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":3134840,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage7.emf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/5838e63c765581e28799651d.emf"},{"id":95714664,"identity":"f8e28a8b-583f-4816-bf9b-fe3425695def","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:59","extension":"emf","order_by":16,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":3202860,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage8.emf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/33d6f0a6776de03c1389f1db.emf"},{"id":95714662,"identity":"a83d4758-522a-4b1c-9e89-abb781b2163d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:59","extension":"emf","order_by":17,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":3184988,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage9.emf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/96e1141af42974ee09cbfde2.emf"},{"id":95714647,"identity":"0908e4cf-9e80-4f6c-9ef2-247512a951d3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:58","extension":"png","order_by":18,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":63753,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/54808f3bdba683e40af4be9e.png"},{"id":95800087,"identity":"1eb0d6fd-667a-4795-af41-5a3dac2ec086","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-13 08:21:34","extension":"png","order_by":19,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":15689,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage10.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/24854fe64734ca8fc10e1489.png"},{"id":95714649,"identity":"d0c8db15-d093-446c-9b72-18540b5b9ca1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:58","extension":"png","order_by":20,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":65008,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage11.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/eaa3b4afca77dbd15531bb4a.png"},{"id":95714643,"identity":"9f5de9fa-c692-47d3-bc69-22043a814be7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:58","extension":"png","order_by":21,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":26402,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage12.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/e5e4651f4451373804e35445.png"},{"id":95800639,"identity":"25c4117e-c0f7-429d-ae9b-a3729ae0aa35","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-13 08:23:02","extension":"png","order_by":22,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":12945,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage13.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/c610219a7ba338d1d59f6042.png"},{"id":95800440,"identity":"d5469288-f8f8-4109-a06a-d0d4c926621c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-13 08:22:38","extension":"png","order_by":23,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":23529,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/e9098497d43066ed8639476f.png"},{"id":95714656,"identity":"31f10bc1-5d5a-492f-81cd-8c3efdf32754","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:59","extension":"png","order_by":24,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":33017,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/49070eb99a3613a39395f26d.png"},{"id":95714651,"identity":"fa423def-2da1-4433-9bd7-a5027ec2d60d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:58","extension":"png","order_by":25,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":88781,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/040cdfef515bbc42f6b8d2fa.png"},{"id":95714667,"identity":"859d74ff-ee2d-41ff-926c-99ab8bc0a730","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:59","extension":"png","order_by":26,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":71334,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/0069939992c514d8c39b44d7.png"},{"id":95714663,"identity":"506612a8-ad3d-491d-a0c7-895718fda63b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:59","extension":"png","order_by":27,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":44096,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/a37a41dbeeb1b5fcc0c1c8e6.png"},{"id":95800374,"identity":"c655bee0-6158-48f6-98e9-c6e8c35713f5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-13 08:22:30","extension":"png","order_by":28,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":58266,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/51042c48f4e39f269412b6ff.png"},{"id":95714655,"identity":"5ba0de63-c3ce-42bc-8884-6b6d3c0e415f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:59","extension":"png","order_by":29,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":61968,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/640f940f82349a1b17a384b3.png"},{"id":95798684,"identity":"9e0e39d8-7cd2-484f-958c-1cb0680e3c39","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-13 08:17:35","extension":"png","order_by":30,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":60065,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage9.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/4ca9eead976c4d30d5022072.png"},{"id":95714661,"identity":"730a43a7-bac0-4bf0-9413-35f8e5e46dba","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:59","extension":"xml","order_by":31,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":235526,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"rs80885310structuring.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/1e982b1aa1fec06385c74c79.xml"},{"id":95714654,"identity":"01f4999b-6183-4968-a6ae-907c3bd62822","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-12 08:37:59","extension":"html","order_by":32,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":244854,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"earlyproof.html","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/1bca1c0c700da0aa114f563f.html"},{"id":95805279,"identity":"ce2a5cda-c878-4364-b768-33a956be7dd2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-13 08:40:32","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1338926,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"msEgorovfunctionalcropmodeling.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1_covered_807498a1-5797-4fa6-b627-2f9d5ddbeb31.pdf"},{"id":95798771,"identity":"d4a3fa81-309e-488c-bfa4-5da9878dc633","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-13 08:17:46","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":8931539,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementofEgorovetal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8088531/v1/f583fbc18c64c5be71d4a32b.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFunctional diversity among crop models reveals contrasting resilience of soybean and maize to heatwaves and CO\u003c/strong\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e2\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e enrichment\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Department of Soil \u0026 Water Sciences, Institute of Environmental Sciences, The Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot 7610001, Israel","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Crop modeling, process-based models, heat stress, CO₂ fertilization, warming scenarios, maize (Zea mays), soybean (Glycine max), climate resilience, sustainable intensification, mechanistic transparency","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8088531/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8088531/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eSustaining food production under increasing heat extremes requires models that accurately capture crop responses to multiple interacting stresses. We compared three process-based crop models\u0026mdash;WOFOST, BioCro, and DSSAT (CROPGRO-Soybean, CERES-Maize)\u0026mdash;to assess how structural differences influence simulated resilience of irrigated soybean (\u003cem\u003eGlycine max\u003c/em\u003e) and maize (\u003cem\u003eZea mays\u003c/em\u003e) in the U.S. Midwest. Scenarios included uniform warming, elevated atmospheric CO₂, and reproductive-stage heatwaves. All models reproduced historical yields, yet projected sharply different sensitivities. WOFOST showed strong CO₂ fertilization responses but moderate warming effects; DSSAT produced steep heat-induced declines linked to explicit grain-fill temperature functions; BioCro displayed intermediate behavior driven by biochemical canopy photosynthesis. Across models, maize yields declined by 25\u0026ndash;46% at +\u0026thinsp;4\u0026deg;C, while soybean losses (8\u0026ndash;25%) were partially offset by CO₂ gains (+\u0026thinsp;18 to +\u0026thinsp;44%). Short heatwaves reduced yields by 1\u0026ndash;5%, especially during flowering and seed filling. These consistent structural \u0026ldquo;fingerprints\u0026rdquo; demonstrate that model divergence reflects underlying physiological formulations rather than random uncertainty. Advancing functionally transparent and physiologically consistent crop models will improve the credibility of climate impact assessments and support sustainable intensification and adaptation planning in a warming world.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Functional diversity among crop models reveals contrasting resilience of soybean and maize to heatwaves and CO2 enrichment","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-11-12 08:37:53","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8088531/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"52932309-1227-4fbe-8eb5-94557a61fd37","owner":[],"postedDate":"November 12th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":57813182,"name":"Agronomy"},{"id":57813183,"name":"Agricultural Engineering"},{"id":57813184,"name":"Climate Analysis and Modeling"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-12T08:37:53+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-11-12 08:37:53","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8088531","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8088531","identity":"rs-8088531","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}