Elements Shaping Zambia’s GDP-CO2 Nexus: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach to Cointegration

Elements Shaping Zambia’s GDP-CO2 Nexus: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach to Cointegration | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Elements Shaping Zambia’s GDP-CO 2 Nexus: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach to Cointegration Joseph C Mulenga This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6626897/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract As the world grapples with the effects of climate change, central to this problem is the increased rate of greenhouse emissions. Inquiries globally have examined climate change's impacts on health, economy, and wildlife, among other areas. In this study, we investigate the relationship between greenhouse gases (GHG) emission per capita and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and how inflation, urban population growth rate and unemployment influence this nexus in Zambia using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration. Results reveal that in addition to having a long-run relationship, greenhouse emission per capita Granger cause GDP per capita which in turn Granger causes a number of other macroeconomic variables. Therefore, analysing greenhouse gas emissions allows for GDP forecasting, which in turn can be used to predict other macroeconomic variables thereby revealing climate change's substantial economic threats particularly for a developing country like Zambia. Climate change greenhouse emission GDP Zambia ARDL Cointegration Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6626897","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":469960206,"identity":"cceddb74-4265-4437-b921-4c93526fda4d","order_by":0,"name":"Joseph C Mulenga","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Copperbelt University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Joseph","middleName":"C","lastName":"Mulenga","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-09 08:53:15","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6626897/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6626897/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":84458946,"identity":"d40b5124-39d9-4e69-9564-fe39f7589f81","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-12 08:29:37","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":348715,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ElementsShapingZambiasGDPCO2NexusAnARDLApproach.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6626897/v1_covered_b8a6f635-e49d-4342-bd55-af9e1fa50143.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eElements Shaping Zambia’s GDP-CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e Nexus: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach to Cointegration\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Climate change, greenhouse emission, GDP, Zambia, ARDL, Cointegration","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6626897/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6626897/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eAs the world grapples with the effects of climate change, central to this problem is the increased rate of greenhouse emissions. 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