Mathematical Modeling of Coronavirus Reproduction Rate with Policy and Behavioral Effects

In this paper a modified mathematical model based on the SIR model used which can predict the spreading of the corona virus disease (COVID-19) and its effects on people in the days ahead. This model considers all the death, infected and recovered characteristics of this disease. To determine the extent of the risk posed by this novel coronavirus; the transmission rate ( R 0 ) is utilized for a time period from the beginning of spreading virus. Particularly it includes a novel policy to capture the Ro response in the virus spreading over time. The model estimates the vulnerability of the pandemic according to John H. Cochrane’s method with a prediction of new cases by estimating a time-varying R 0 to capture changes in the behavior of SIR model implies to new policy taken at different times and different locations of the world. This modified SIR model with the different values of R 0 can be applied to different country scenario using the real time data report provided by the authorities during this pandemic. The effective evaluation of R 0 can forecast the necessity of lockdown as well as reopening the economy.