New reproduction numbers for the visible and real epidemic dynamics

New reproduction numbers for the visible and real epidemic dynamics | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article New reproduction numbers for the visible and real epidemic dynamics Igor Nesteruk This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5911971/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Known basic and effective reproduction numbers are based on registered (visible) cases despite that asymptomatic and unregistered patients are characteristic of almost all infection diseases. New reproduction numbers - the ratios of the real numbers of infectious persons (symptomatic and asymptomatic) at different moments of time and a simple method of their estimation with the use of visible (registered) cases only were proposed. The novel general SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) model was used and the results of calculations for the pertussis epidemic in England are presented. New approach could help to control different epidemics, in particular new waves of COVID-19. Health sciences/Diseases/Infectious diseases Health sciences/Medical research/Epidemiology reproduction numbers mathematical modeling of infection diseases SIR model parameter identification pertussis epidemic in England COVID-19 pandemic epidemic waves Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5911971","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":410620848,"identity":"9d1e054e-0ac9-4ac3-a307-09e1f3099f24","order_by":0,"name":"Igor Nesteruk","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAz0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACNhhDgr2BgZl4LQdAWngOEKmFAa5FIoFILXzSzYc/f6i4lzhz5hvDzwUVNgz87d0J+B0mcyxN4sCZ4sTZ0jnG0jPOpDFInDm7Ab8WiRwzhoNtCYnzpHMMpHnbDjMYSOQS0pL/+cPBf0AtkmeMfxOpJYdB4mBDQuJsCR4zYm1JM5M4cyzBeGZPWpk1z5k0HoJ+kZ+R/PhDRU2C7Izjhzff5qmwkeNv78WvBQlwGIBIHmKVgwD7A1JUj4JRMApGwQgCAJuMRIBHzmZEAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7250-2729","institution":"National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Igor","middleName":"","lastName":"Nesteruk","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-01-27 11:50:11","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5911971/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5911971/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":79265516,"identity":"7b3998a5-82f1-4c29-a3ef-640fb11edf12","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-03-26 10:02:06","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":254025,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"rep2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5911971/v1_covered_2ab27468-33cd-4cf6-b84b-cdc67cea7ac6.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cp\u003eThere is \u003cstrong\u003eNO\u003c/strong\u003e Competing Interest.\u003c/p\u003e","formattedTitle":"New reproduction numbers for the visible and real epidemic dynamics","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":" reproduction numbers, mathematical modeling of infection diseases, SIR model, parameter identification, pertussis epidemic in England, COVID-19 pandemic, epidemic waves","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5911971/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5911971/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Known basic and effective reproduction numbers are based on registered (visible) cases despite that asymptomatic and unregistered patients are characteristic of almost all infection diseases. 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