Predicting Risk Areas of Cattle, Sheep and Goat Tuberculosis in China Based on Air Pollutants and Meteorological Factors

not-yet-known not-yet-known not-yet-known unknown Tuberculosis is a zoonotic chronic respiratory infectious disease caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex. Domestic animals such as cattle, sheep, and goats are important but neglected hosts of tuberculosis. The outbreak and epidemic of tuberculosis can seriously threaten human and veterinary health. To investigate the effects of air pollutants and meteorological factors on cattle, sheep, and goat tuberculosis, we obtained the incidence rates of M. tuberculosis infection in cattle, buffaloes, sheep, and goats in China from the published literature. We identified key risk factors among 6 major air pollutants (particulate matter 2.5, particulate matter 10, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and ozone) and 19 bioclimatic variables; simulated the risk distribution of cattle, sheep, and goat tuberculosis in China using the maximum entropy niche model; and evaluated the effects of environmental factors. The area under the curve of the model was 0.873 (95% confidence interval, 0.0851–0.0895). The risk factors that most significantly influenced the incidence of tuberculosis included NO2 level, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, cattle distribution density, sheep distribution density, O3 level, and precipitation of the driest month. The predicted risk map indicated that the high-risk regions were Guangxi Province; the northern Taklimakan Desert in Xinjiang, Guangdong Province; Hainan Province; Eastern Qinghai Province; parts of Shandong Province; Gansu Province; Eastern Sichuan Province; Central Shaanxi Province; Central Inner Mongolia; Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region; Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region; Northern Henan Province; the border area between Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai; and Taiwan Island. Improved surveillance is needed in these high-risk areas, and early preventive measures must be implemented based on the risk factors identified to reduce future incidence of cattle, sheep, and goat tuberculosis.