Policy Uncertainty and Investment-Driven Growth: Implications of Renewable Energy and Infrastructure Development

Policy Uncertainty and Investment-Driven Growth: Implications of Renewable Energy and Infrastructure Development | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Policy Uncertainty and Investment-Driven Growth: Implications of Renewable Energy and Infrastructure Development Yusuf Bala Zaria This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9344623/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study investigates the long-run relationship between economic growth, renewable energy investment, infrastructure investment, and economic policy uncertainty over the period 2005 to 2024, motivated by the growing importance of sustainable development and the need to understand how policy volatility influences investment-driven growth. The primary objective is to examine whether renewable energy and infrastructure investments can sustain economic growth despite uncertainty in the policy environment. To achieve this, the study adopts a quantitative research design, employing correlation analysis and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique to explore both short- and long-run dynamics among the variables. The empirical findings confirm the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship, indicating that economic systems possess inherent self-correcting mechanisms that restore balance following short-term shocks. The estimated error correction coefficient of 40.63% per period reflects a moderate speed of adjustment, underscoring the role of investment-induced multiplier effects in stabilising output. The study contributes to theoretical discourse by integrating the Economic Policy Uncertainty framework, multiplier effect theory, and the constant returns to scale model, thereby offering a comprehensive explanation of the interaction between renewable energy investment and economic growth. From a policy perspective, the results highlight the critical importance of sustained investment in renewable energy and infrastructure as drivers of long-term growth, particularly in economies characterised by institutional instability. The study advocates for transparent and consistent policy frameworks to encourage technological adoption and attract long-term investment. However, limitations related to aggregate data and time scope suggest the need for more granular and longitudinal analyses in future research. JEL classification : Q42, O31, E61 Renewable energy Technological adoption Economic policy uncertainty Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 13 May, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 08 May, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 07 May, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 06 May, 2026 First submitted to journal 06 May, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9344623","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":639750999,"identity":"93fa0e53-47e4-458d-a8ed-7a126fb0742f","order_by":0,"name":"Yusuf Bala Zaria","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABE0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLCCygYGGTAjgcGGx0ACxGIjoOVsAwMPVEsaqVoYGA4zENRicCP9mcTBHXY8/P2Hn314UHNexly6x4DhQ9lhBnP+BTi05JhJHDyTzCNx4JjxjIRjt3ks55wxYJxx7jCD5YwHuLSwSX9sY+ZhONhgzJDAdpsHKGLAzNsGdOGNA3gc1lbPI3+Y/TNDwr9zEC1/8WpJADqs7TCPwTEeY4bEtgMQLYwgLecbsGqRPPPG2OLgmeM8hmd4ihkS+5KBfjlWcLDnXDpQL/YQ4zue/vDGwR3VcnLnj29m/PHNzt5cunnjgx9l1nIG57E7TAGrMEiQh0EiAasWeezuBQN+7LaMglEwCkbBiAMAfSlm1hws9mAAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yusuf","middleName":"Bala","lastName":"Zaria","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-07 11:53:52","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9344623/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9344623/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":109760223,"identity":"c4be7e0e-9897-491b-bb82-239243cec13e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-22 07:28:19","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":801175,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ENRUNCER2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9344623/v1_covered_e74be685-625b-48ec-b4fb-2d96dcb53074.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Policy Uncertainty and Investment-Driven Growth: Implications of Renewable Energy and Infrastructure Development","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-sustainability","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"disu","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Sustainability](https://www.springer.com/43621)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Sustainability","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Renewable energy, Technological adoption, Economic policy uncertainty","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9344623/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9344623/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study investigates the long-run relationship between economic growth, renewable energy investment, infrastructure investment, and economic policy uncertainty over the period 2005 to 2024, motivated by the growing importance of sustainable development and the need to understand how policy volatility influences investment-driven growth. 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