Projected changes in the global precipitation area by CMIP6 models

Projected changes in the global precipitation area by CMIP6 models | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Projected changes in the global precipitation area by CMIP6 models Andreas Dobler, Rasmus Benestad, Cristian Lussana, Oskar Landgren This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4546090/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 08 Oct, 2024 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Reanalysis and satellite data indicate a decreasing precipitation area in recent decades, affecting local water resources and precipitation intensities. We have used CMIP6 simulations to test the hypothesis of a shrinking precipitation area in a warming climate. Our analyses reveal that SSP5-8.5 projections show a robust decrease in the precipitation area towards the end of the 21st century. The decrease is most pronounced between 50 °S and 50 °N. We find a poleward shift of precipitation, increasing the daily precipitation area in the Arctic from 18 % to 28 %. The new findings support the observed relationship, although to a lesser extent than earlier found for reanalysis and satellite data. An explanation is provided by the expansion of low relative humidity zones in the lower-to-mid troposphere poleward of the subtropics. The expansion locally decreases the occurrence of precipitation and pushes precipitation events poleward, ultimately leading to a reduced global precipitation area. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Global hydrological cycle global warming rainfall patterns precipitation intensity CMIP6 Full Text Additional Declarations (Not answered) Supplementary Files CMIP6rainareaSI.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 08 Oct, 2024 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: revise 22 Jul, 2024 Review # 1 received at journal 11 Jul, 2024 Review # 2 received at journal 10 Jul, 2024 Reviewer # 3 agreed at journal 19 Jun, 2024 Reviewer # 2 agreed at journal 18 Jun, 2024 Reviewer # 1 agreed at journal 17 Jun, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 17 Jun, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 16 Jun, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 14 Jun, 2024 First submitted to journal 12 Jun, 2024 Unknown event 10 Jun, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4546090","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":315479344,"identity":"3675ec1c-bbfe-409c-b0b6-20b8e25f4218","order_by":0,"name":"Andreas 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