The COVID-19 Pandemic, the Great Lockdown and Fertility Trends

The novel COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a massive uncertainty in several dimensions, leading to disruptive economic and social changes that could affect trends in fertility rates in more than 170 countries. Exploiting the variations in total fertility rates and changes in real GDP observed in recent years, as well as the economic growth projections by the Monetary Fund International, we suggest that this pandemic will accelerate downward fertility trends in several high- and middle income countries, perhaps to unprecedented levels, thus uncovering major flaws in motherhood policies and institutions. In low-income countries, the effects of the pandemic would be less. Total fertility rates in the world could be below the replacement level of 2.1 by 2040. Portugal, Spain, Greece, Finland, Italy, Ireland, and the United States could even have total fertility rates below 1. The possible patterns of fertility convergence observed in recent years could also be significantly altered. Unlike other lethal plagues in history, in which high mortality rates determined subsequent birth behaviors, we suggest that uncertainty triggered by the COVID-19 would play a central role in explaining future fertility patterns, as the economic and social consequences of the pandemic extend for several years. Given their consequences for the future population, governments should place fertility policies as part of their core concerns and strategies for recovery from the pandemic.