Seasonal temperature fluctuation and snail adaptive behaviors yield insights into the dynamics and distribution of schistosomiasis in Africa

Seasonal temperature fluctuation and snail adaptive behaviors yield insights into the dynamics and distribution of schistosomiasis in Africa | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Seasonal temperature fluctuation and snail adaptive behaviors yield insights into the dynamics and distribution of schistosomiasis in Africa IBRAHIM ASLAN, Julie Pourtois, Veronica Frans, Meghan Forstchen, and 17 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6264426/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The complex relationship between temperature and schistosomiasis, an environmentally mediated neglected tropical disease affecting 250 million people globally, with hyperendemicity mostly in Africa, is poorly characterized. Here, we explored how seasonal temperature fluctuation affects the persistence, dynamics, and geographic distribution of schistosomiasis in Africa. We used a temperature-sensitive, mechanistic model of schistosomiasis dynamics that accounts for the adaptive behaviors of intermediate snail hosts and derived the disease’s thermal response curve for different patterns of seasonal temperature fluctuations. Changing the amplitude of seasonal temperature fluctuations can influence both the thermal optimum and critical thermal thresholds which imply accurately drawing the thermal response curves requires accounting for seasonality in addition to mean annual temperature. Moreover, our simulations can reproduce the documented persistence of schistosomiasis at locations with strong seasonal temperature fluctuations and mean annual temperatures near or above the critical thermal maxima for snail hosts only when snail adaptive behavior (e.g., aestivation, movement into cooler depths or shade) is included in the model. These results suggest that future climate change impacting the amplitude and timing of these fluctuations will likely alter the future geographic distribution of schistosomiasis in African regions. Our work demonstrates that a comprehensive understanding of schistosomiasis and, potentially, other environmentally mediated diseases in Africa, necessitates the inclusion of seasonal temperature fluctuations and host behavioral adaptations in process-based mechanistic models. Health sciences/Diseases/Infectious diseases/Parasitic infection Health sciences/Health care/Public health/Epidemiology Health sciences/Pathogenesis/Infection Health sciences/Health care/Health policy Biological sciences/Computational biology and bioinformatics/Computational models Schistosomiasis Infectious Diseases Ecology Seasonal temperature fluctuation Climate change Parasitic infection Ectotherms Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files supplementarymaterial.pdf Supplementary material Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6264426","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":433838393,"identity":"001fc8db-47af-4825-8427-3b5143c1d9af","order_by":0,"name":"IBRAHIM 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