Copeptin combined with National Early Warning Score for predicting survival in elderly patients with acute and critical illness

Abstract Purpose Copeptin, reflecting vasopressin release, as well as the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), reflecting the severity of critical illness, might qualify for survival prediction in elderly patients with acute and critical illness. This prospective observational study aimed at assessing the predictive value of copeptin combined with NEWS on the prognosis of elderly patients with acute and critical illness. Methods We analyzed serum copeptin levels and the NEWS at admission to the emergency department (ED) in a prospective, single-center and observational study comprising 205 elderly patients with acute and critical illness. Death within 30 days after admission to the ED was the primary end point. Results The serum copeptin levels and the NEWS in the non-survivor patients group were higher than those in the survivor group [30.35 (14.20, 38.91) vs 17.53 (13.01, 25.20), P = 0.001 and 9.0 (7.0–10.0) vs 7.0 (6.0–8.0), P = 0.001]. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that Copeptin, NEWS and copeptin combined with NEWS were all independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in elderly patients with acute and critical illness. Copeptin, NEWS and copeptin combined with NEWS all performed well in predicting 30-day survival, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.766 (95%CI, 0.702–0.822), 0.797 (95%CI, 0.744–0.877) and 0.854 (95%CI, 0.798–0.899) respectively. Using the Z test to compare the areas under the above three curves, copeptin combined with NEWS showed a higher predictive value for 30-day survival (P < 0.05). As we calculated, the optimal cut-off value of copeptin and NEWS using the Youden index were 19.78 pg/ml and 8.5 points respectively. Risk stratification analysis showed that patients with both higher copeptin levels and higher NEWS had the highest risk of death. Conclusions Copeptin combined with NEWS have a stronger predictive power on the prognosis of elderly patients with acute and critical illness, comparing to either factor individually.