Defining variation in pre-human ecosystems can guide conservation: An example from a Caribbean coral reef

There is a consensus that Caribbean coral reefs are a pale shadow of what they once were, yet a reef’s pre-human state is typically assumed or estimated using space-for-time substitution approaches. These approaches may fail to account for past variation before human impact which could mislead conservation priorities and actions. In this study we use a suite of fossilised mid-Holocene (7.2-5.6 ka) fringing reefs in Caribbean Panama to define the Historical Range of Variation (HRV) in coral community structure before human-impact to provide context for the states of modern reefs in the same area. Using the abundances of coral taxa to quantify communities, we found that most of the modern coral communities exist in novel ecosystem states with no fossil precedence. We do however identify one modern reef that is indistinguishable in coral community structure from the mid-Holocene reefs. Reef-matrix cores show that the community on this reef has remained in a stable state for over 760 years, suggesting long-term resistance to the region-wide shift to novel states. Without historical context this robust and stable reef would be overlooked since it does not fulfil expectations of what a “pristine” coral reef should look like. This example illustrates how defining past variation using the fossil record can place modern degradation in historical context and improve conservation recommendations.