Evaluation of the performance of NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 data in representing the climate of the Poro region (northern Côte d’Ivoire)

Evaluation of the performance of NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 data in representing the climate of the Poro region (northern Côte d’Ivoire) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Evaluation of the performance of NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 data in representing the climate of the Poro region (northern Côte d’Ivoire) FERELAHA SORO, YAO Blaise Koffi This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9465826/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Reliable climate information is essential for analysing hydroclimatic risks and climate-change impacts in northern Côte d’Ivoire, where water availability and livelihoods remain strongly dependent on rainfall seasonality and thermal conditions. This study evaluates the ability of historical daily NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 data to represent the climate of the Poro region over 1981–2014. The assessment combines three components: selection of a regional precipitation reference dataset, evaluation of 15 individual NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models, and comparison between a full multimodel ensemble (MME_FULL) and a reduced performance-based ensemble (MME_TOP3). For precipitation, five gridded products were compared with station observations; for temperature, ERA5-Land was evaluated against the Korhogo synoptic record. Model skill was then examined at multiple temporal scales using complementary statistical, distributional, and climatological diagnostics. CHIRPS emerged as the most robust precipitation reference, whereas ERA5-Land provided a credible thermal benchmark. Overall, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 reproduced the seasonal structure of climate more successfully than interannual variability, especially for precipitation. Ensemble reduction improved performance across most diagnostics, with MME_TOP3 outperforming MME_FULL for both rainfall and temperature. Residual precipitation biases nevertheless remained, notably excessive wet-day frequency, insufficient rainfall intensity, and imperfect representation of dry-spell persistence. These results indicate that NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 provides a useful basis for climate-impact studies in the Poro region, but that additional region-specific bias adjustment remains advisable before detailed hydrological and agroclimatic applications. NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate evaluation Poro region northern Côte d’Ivoire precipitation temperature multi-model ensemble bias correction Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 22 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 22 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 21 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 19 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9465826","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":629257863,"identity":"c06d26fc-0da0-4d0c-9304-257bd2e71513","order_by":0,"name":"FERELAHA SORO","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA2ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBAC9gYg8YBBQo4fxEsoIEILzwGQSgYbY0mQ3gQD4rWkJRqAGAxEaWHvffggoeZwgvH51YkfHhgwyPOLHSCghee4sUHCscN5ZjfebpYAOsxw5uwE/FrsJdLYJBLYDheb3Ti7AaQlweA2AS088s/YfyT8O5y4ecbZzT+I0yLBxsaQ2JaWuIG/dxuRtvCkMUsk9tkYS9zg3WaRYCBB2C887McYP3z4BozK/rObb/6osJHnlyagBQEkwColiFUOAvwHSFE9CkbBKBgFIwkAAAZHQ9Imt8VrAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Université Félix Houphouët Boigny","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"FERELAHA","middleName":"","lastName":"SORO","suffix":""},{"id":629257864,"identity":"9b023041-3362-4dab-adcf-579c54f755c0","order_by":1,"name":"YAO Blaise Koffi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Université Félix Houphouët Boigny","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"YAO","middleName":"Blaise","lastName":"Koffi","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-20 02:38:28","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9465826/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9465826/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108232437,"identity":"2b1a4d5a-6788-483a-9a32-14638df3a831","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-30 17:54:18","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":719174,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"MainManuscriptTACSoroYao.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9465826/v1_covered_1f188aa7-4e0e-4384-bebf-11cc0fb2b917.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Evaluation of the performance of NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 data in representing the climate of the Poro region (northern Côte d’Ivoire)","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"theoretical-and-applied-climatology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"taac","sideBox":"Learn more about [Theoretical and Applied Climatology](https://www.springer.com/journal/704)","snPcode":"704","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/704/3","title":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, climate evaluation, Poro region, northern Côte d’Ivoire, precipitation, temperature, multi-model ensemble, bias correction","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9465826/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9465826/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eReliable climate information is essential for analysing hydroclimatic risks and climate-change impacts in northern C\u0026ocirc;te d\u0026rsquo;Ivoire, where water availability and livelihoods remain strongly dependent on rainfall seasonality and thermal conditions. 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