Tracing Structural Urbanisation in Ghana: Evidence from Urban Population Share and Transition Dynamics, 1990–2024

Tracing Structural Urbanisation in Ghana: Evidence from Urban Population Share and Transition Dynamics, 1990–2024 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Tracing Structural Urbanisation in Ghana: Evidence from Urban Population Share and Transition Dynamics, 1990–2024 Charles Aaron Adams Ekuban This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8895982/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper examines Ghana’s urbanization as a time-series process by jointly analyzing the level of urbanization and the pace at which it changes. Using annual urban share data spanning 1960–2024, we define urban share as the percentage of the population living in urban areas and urban transition speed as the year-on-year change in urban share measured in percentage points per year. Ghana’s urban share rises from about 23 percent in the early 1960s to about 59 percent by the end of the period, but the pace of change is not constant over time. Estimating both linear and quadratic relationships between transition speed and lagged urban share, the paper finds evidence of a nonlinear, inverted U pattern consistent with an “S curve” transition: urbanization speeds up through the middle of the transition and slows at higher levels of urbanization. The analysis points to multiple breakpoints, implying that Ghana’s urbanisation pace changed across sub-periods. A 10-year forecast (2025–2035) based on an ARIMA (2,1,0) with drift suggests continued increases in the urban share, reaching roughly 59 percent by 2035, subject to uncertainty bands. The results underscore the need to time infrastructure, housing, land governance, and climate adaptation investments to phases of the urban transition. Policy implications focus on adaptive spatial planning, infrastructure finance, housing delivery, and metropolitan governance. Urban Studies Urban share Time series Urban Transition speed urbanisation urban planning Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8895982","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":592371117,"identity":"7c37f8af-66b5-4f85-93fd-b1a61b0b2abb","order_by":0,"name":"Charles Aaron Adams Ekuban","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0009-3219-4683","institution":"University Of Ghana","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Charles","middleName":"Aaron Adams","lastName":"Ekuban","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-16 20:13:17","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":true,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":true},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8895982/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8895982/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":102964474,"identity":"fbd10494-9c9e-4704-908e-af2d4dd994ef","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-19 04:22:25","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":570527,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"PaperUrbantimeseries.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8895982/v1_covered_754a38b4-b6c9-4e7a-ae52-4191d556e6a4.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eTracing Structural Urbanisation in Ghana: Evidence from Urban Population Share and Transition Dynamics, 1990–2024\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Urban share, Time series, Urban Transition speed, urbanisation, urban planning","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8895982/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8895982/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis paper examines Ghana’s urbanization as a time-series process by jointly analyzing the level of urbanization and the pace at which it changes. 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A 10-year forecast (2025–2035) based on an ARIMA (2,1,0) with drift suggests continued increases in the urban share, reaching roughly 59 percent by 2035, subject to uncertainty bands. The results underscore the need to time infrastructure, housing, land governance, and climate adaptation investments to phases of the urban transition. 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