Critical Sustainability Transitions: Relaunching local agriculture after decline

Critical Sustainability Transitions: Relaunching local agriculture after decline | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Critical Sustainability Transitions: Relaunching local agriculture after decline Pedro Lopez-Merino, Paolo Zeppini, Nathalie Lazaric This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5317338/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract After decades of agricultural modernization that globalized production , distribution and consumption of food, the beginning of the XXI century has witnessed growing demand for locally-sourced food. This paper presents a stylized model of land-use to explore the potential for reterrito-rialization of food systems, inspired by trends observed in different territories. Using a framework based on phase transitions of collective behaviors, our simulations show the existence of two equilibria and a double transition pattern: an initial critical shift leading to the near-total decline of agriculture, mirroring current local situations (decline), followed by a subsequent opposite transition toward a new equilibrium where agriculture regains significance (relaunch). We extend the model by incorporating network effects, which considerably bolster the dynamics of the relaunch equilibrium. Our findings highlight that sustainability transitions involving collective action are not gradual, but exhibit the non-linear patterns of phase transitions in statistical mechanics. Key model parameters are analyzed as policy levers for a ‘reterritorialization’ of agriculture, aiming to enhance the resilience of local food systems. complexity land-use models phase transitions resilience sustainability territorial agriculture network effects Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5317338","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":377420493,"identity":"4ac66996-400f-42eb-a8de-30943eb08e8e","order_by":0,"name":"Pedro Lopez-Merino","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Université Côte d’Azur/CNRS","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Pedro","middleName":"","lastName":"Lopez-Merino","suffix":""},{"id":377420494,"identity":"c838d3e8-7500-4268-9e0d-1992ad216514","order_by":1,"name":"Paolo Zeppini","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Université Côte d’Azur/CNRS","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Paolo","middleName":"","lastName":"Zeppini","suffix":""},{"id":377420495,"identity":"c71dead9-4c06-4643-95b9-99dcd3dc8a37","order_by":2,"name":"Nathalie Lazaric","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Université Côte d’Azur/CNRS","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nathalie","middleName":"","lastName":"Lazaric","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-10-23 08:53:29","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5317338/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5317338/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":88060907,"identity":"d4aae99a-7d14-4026-a9f3-e43df9d33f57","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-01 01:46:39","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1113100,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"LaTeXArticleEMA2024.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5317338/v1_covered_f813bfab-c873-4a75-9f3a-f85f3ca36cdc.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Critical Sustainability Transitions: Relaunching local agriculture after decline","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"complexity, land-use models, phase transitions, resilience, sustainability, territorial agriculture, network effects","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5317338/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5317338/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"After decades of agricultural modernization that globalized production , distribution and consumption of food, the beginning of the XXI century has witnessed growing demand for locally-sourced food. 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