Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5°C

Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5°C | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5°C Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, David Rounce, Lizz Ultee, Patrick Schmitt, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5045894/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 19 May, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Due to past climate inaction, exceeding a global mean temperature level of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels has become a distinct possibility. Yet the consequences of such an overshoot are not well understood, including mountain glaciers' contribution to rising sea levels and regional water availability. Here we show that exceeding and then returning to the 1.5°C Paris Agreement limit has irreversible consequences for glacier mass and runoff over centuries. Novel global climate and glacier simulations project that a 3.0°C peak and decline scenario leads to 11% additional loss in global glacier mass by 2500 compared to limiting warming to 1.5°C without overshoot. In basins where glaciers regrow after peak temperature, glacier runoff reduces further than if the glaciers would stabilise, a newly documented phenomenon we call ″trough water″. Half of the studied glaciated basins show a lower glacier contribution to runoff with overshoot than without for decades to centuries post peak warming. These previously undocumented risks to glacier mass loss and runoff underscore the urgency of near-term emission reductions and limiting any potential climate overshoot. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Hydrology Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files 20240906Schusteretalsupplements.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 19 May, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5045894","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":358079268,"identity":"b6c3fc52-17fa-4c34-abf5-5cedf2beccc9","order_by":0,"name":"Lilian 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