Attributing child undernutrition in Burkina Faso to climate change-induced crop yield losses

Attributing child undernutrition in Burkina Faso to climate change-induced crop yield losses | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Attributing child undernutrition in Burkina Faso to climate change-induced crop yield losses Asya Dimitrova, Rahel Laudien, Anna Dimitrova, Sabine Undorf, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8563300/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change threatens food security in low-income countries dependent on rainfed, smallholder agriculture; however, its historical impact on undernutrition remains unknown. We integrate a machine learning crop model with an epidemiological model to estimate the contribution of historical climate change to child undernutrition in Burkina Faso. We find that between 1993 and 2021, 2.7% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1.2–4.2%) of stunting and 6.2% (95% UI: 3.5–9.2%) of underweight cases in children can be attributed to climate change-induced reductions in maize, millet, and sorghum yields. Attributable burdens are higher for severe forms of undernutrition, amounting to 4.8% (95% UI: 2.0–7.3) of severe stunting and 8.0% (95% UI: 2.5–13.1) of severe underweight. These findings add to the growing evidence on the health impacts of climate change and underscore the need for mitigation and adaptation to protect child health and wellbeing. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Attribution Scientific community and society/Agriculture Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementrayInformationANON.docx Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8563300","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":577886088,"identity":"52d9049f-5fef-482a-adf8-ea14c9052e38","order_by":0,"name":"Asya Dimitrova","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7499-9588","institution":"Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Asya","middleName":"","lastName":"Dimitrova","suffix":""},{"id":577886089,"identity":"c0073812-72e3-4523-ac18-91ddc469cdfc","order_by":1,"name":"Rahel Laudien","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rahel","middleName":"","lastName":"Laudien","suffix":""},{"id":577886090,"identity":"099995f8-b439-4dbf-81ee-c17eaf349a34","order_by":2,"name":"Anna Dimitrova","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Barcelona Institute for Global Health","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anna","middleName":"","lastName":"Dimitrova","suffix":""},{"id":577886091,"identity":"aca6d885-95ef-48d2-8711-ea9291a53529","order_by":3,"name":"Sabine Undorf","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7026-080X","institution":"Research Department for Climate Resilience - 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