Forecast Scenarios for Climate Change in the Northern Hemisphere

Forecast Scenarios for Climate Change in the Northern Hemisphere | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Method Article Forecast Scenarios for Climate Change in the Northern Hemisphere Marco Morando This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8319654/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Anthropogenic Global Warming is most probably the main cause of Climate Change. Nevertheless, several authors indicated the solar activity and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation variation as potential additional forcing. This article considers the amplification due to the solar radiation and to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation’s variation, via sea ice cover albedo feedback in the Arctic regions, as forcing Climate Change in complement to the Anthropogenic Global Warming. A physical model, using the sunspot number count and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index as inputs, simulates the average global temperature anomaly and the Arctic Sea Ice Extension for the past twelve centuries. This model represents an innovative progress in understanding how existing studies on Arctic Sea ice’s albedo feedback can help complement the Anthropogenic Global Warming models, thus helping in defining more precise models for future Climate Change. In addition, the North Atlantic Oscillation index across 1,200 years is determined and, through its correlation with temperature anomaly, the climatic history of Europe, North America, Arctic and Mediterranean regions is modelled. The results are then compared with benchmarks from literature, to evaluate their level of accuracy in simulating the historical data. Forecast up to 2160 is provided, according to four different scenarios for the solar activity. Indeed, the main scope of this article is, more than benchmarking the model versus historical records, to provide a climatic and meteorological overview of the weather patterns which should prevail in the next decades. Therefore, a specific focus is paid to the “hidden” aspects which can, nevertheless, be inferred indirectly from the graphics, especially the effects of negative North Atlantic Oscillation on jet stream’s waviness and, consequently on storminess and on alternance of cold spells with heat waves, especially over the Mediterranean region. For purpose of simplicity, the model does not consider the Anthropogenic Global Warming. Nevertheless, the natural forcing described in this article shall be considered complementary to the Anthropogenic Global Warming effects. Manmade forcing will be included in a future model to be developed by the author. Climatology climate change sea ice extension NAO AMO jet stream Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8319654","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Method Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":557768238,"identity":"9d58eace-248e-433e-a692-b0eb23efaccc","order_by":0,"name":"Marco 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Nevertheless, several authors indicated the solar activity and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation variation as potential additional forcing. This article considers the amplification due to the solar radiation and to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation\u0026rsquo;s variation, via sea ice cover albedo feedback in the Arctic regions, as forcing Climate Change in complement to the Anthropogenic Global Warming.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA physical model, using the sunspot number count and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index as inputs, simulates the average global temperature anomaly and the Arctic Sea Ice Extension for the past twelve centuries. This model represents an innovative progress in understanding how existing studies on Arctic Sea ice\u0026rsquo;s albedo feedback can help complement the Anthropogenic Global Warming models, thus helping in defining more precise models for future Climate Change.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn addition, the North Atlantic Oscillation index across 1,200 years is determined and, through its correlation with temperature anomaly, the climatic history of Europe, North America, Arctic and Mediterranean regions is modelled. The results are then compared with benchmarks from literature, to evaluate their level of accuracy in simulating the historical data.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eForecast up to 2160 is provided, according to four different scenarios for the solar activity. 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