Assessing the drivers of connectivity declines for jaguars in the Atlantic Forest

Abstract Context.Habitat loss is a major factor influencing declines in landscape connectivity for many species, but forest patch configuration and changes in matrix permeability can also represent important drivers. To evaluate which of these factors are predominant is key to guiding landscape planning at a regional scale. Objectives.We aimed to quantify the loss of jaguar (Panthera onca) habitat connectivity throughout 42 years and to analyse the drivers behind this process.Methods.We selected the jaguar as a focal species to 1) analyse trends in connectivity between 1973 and 2015 at the Upper Paraná Atlantic Forest eco-region; 2) compare trends in habitat connectivity considering only forest area, considering forest patch configuration, and also considering matrix permeability; and 3) compare trends in connectivity at the scale of each of the three countries of the eco-region over the same period. Results.The connectivity trend for jaguars was negative throughout the entire period, losing up to 93% of connectivity. The forest patch configuration was the main driver of this trend, and the effect of decreased matrix permeability was also significant. Both effects had a larger impact on jaguar habitat connectivity compared to the effect of habitat area declines itself. Habitat connectivity trends for the three countries were negative, with the highest loss rates found in Paraguay and Brazil compared to Argentina.Conclusions.Analysing landscape dynamics using metrics that go beyond measuring net forest area is key when assessing landscape connectivity. Habitat patch configuration and matrix permeability are important components to evaluate after the habitat loss and fragmentation process.