Regime Shift in Global Mean Sea Level and Its Components in the Early 2010s

Regime Shift in Global Mean Sea Level and Its Components in the Early 2010s | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Regime Shift in Global Mean Sea Level and Its Components in the Early 2010s A. Cazenave, Lancelot Leclercq, Julius Oelsmann, Marcello Passaro, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6647897/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 12 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Abrupt changes at decadal time scale are recurrent events in the modern climate system. These events are generally attributed to internal climate variability, although external forcing factors are also invoked. Using multiple trend-change detection methods, this study reports such a regime shift early the 2010s in the altimetry-based global mean sea level record, as well as in its thermosteric and barystatic (i.e., thermal and mass) components. Shift in the latter is mostly due to the terrestrial water storage contribution. The rate of rise of the global mean sea level increases abruptly from 2.6 +/- 0.3 mm/yr over the 2002-2011 decade to 4.1 +/- 0.3 mm/yr over 2012-2021. Regime shifts in numerous climate parameters have also been reported at this epoch, suggesting a global coherent phenomenon. Both internal climate variability and increased radiative forcing are potential drivers of the early 2010s climate shift observed in sea level and other climate parameters. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 12 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6647897","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":459238212,"identity":"fde0260a-831c-4157-b09b-cf559054f02a","order_by":0,"name":"A. 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