Atmospheric rivers and winter sea ice drive recent reversal in Antarctic ice mass loss

Atmospheric rivers and winter sea ice drive recent reversal in Antarctic ice mass loss | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Atmospheric rivers and winter sea ice drive recent reversal in Antarctic ice mass loss Marlen Kolbe, Abraham Torres Alavez, Ruth Mottram, Marwan Katurji, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7643825/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 03 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Since about 2000, the total mass of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has declined at a near-linear rate, increasing global sea levels. Since 2016 however, satellite gravimetry data reveal a slowdown in net AIS mass loss and a net mass gain since 2020, despite increases in dynamically-driven ice loss by discharge from outlet glaciers. Here we use a suite of reanalyses and regional climate models to show that this reversal is caused by increased precipitation and positive surface mass balance anomalies linked to increased atmospheric river (AR) activity, strengthening westerlies and loss of sea ice. ARs have become more frequent and intense since 2020, particularly over the Antarctic Peninsula, Queen Maud Land, and Wilkes Land, resulting in strong regional positive mass balance anomalies. High-resolution regional climate model simulations with modified sea ice extent show that the effect of sea ice on enhancing precipitation through increased evaporation accounts for around 10% of the winter increase, but is overall minor compared to remote large-scale processes. Combined, these factors result in accumulation increases that currently offset the mass loss from accelerated ice discharge in Antarctica and point to processes important for future projections. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files nrreportingsummarySILAMB.pdf Reporting Summary Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 03 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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