Institutions as Switching Circuits: Decision Synchrony under Rising Connectedness

Institutions as Switching Circuits: Decision Synchrony under Rising Connectedness | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Institutions as Switching Circuits: Decision Synchrony under Rising Connectedness Ingo Piepers This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7707870/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Institutions reduce uncertainty, but by compressing decision latency and manufacturing common knowledge they can also couple decisions. We show that European systemic wars follow a behavioural mechanism: cadence converges on a shared terminal window (T_c ≈ mid-1940s), severity scales to the same T_c, and cabinet “latency ladders” (1914) reveal hours-to-days synchrony. A frozen connectedness carrier (κ) leads pre-whitened early-warning texture by ~25 years. A fixed-rule agent model - thresholds, topology, and update held constant, with only a post-event actuation ratchet (ΔJ) - suffices to generate accelerating onsets; its J read-out maps to observed severity via S\ =\rho\bullet Population\bullet(J_0+J), with a single historical uplift for WWII. Together these results expose an unintended war trap: rails that improve coordination also raise the probability of synchronized activation under load. We test institutional levers - safe leakage, reverse-ratchet, and decorrelation - that lengthen intervals and lower mapped severity without abandoning sovereignty. Social science/Politics and international relations Social science/Complex networks institutions decision synchrony war trap international order early-warning signals agent-based model Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Piepers2025EDInstitutionsSwitchingCircuitsNHB.zip Extended Data Piepers2025SIInstitutionsSwitchingCircuitsNHB.pdf Institutions as Switching Circuits: Decision Synchrony under Rising Connectedness Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7707870","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":520427518,"identity":"bbec58e9-17f6-43bf-8b20-d5737d6ee8ab","order_by":0,"name":"Ingo Piepers","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA4UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACNjBpACYZHwAJHj5StDCDKB42kmyUQBiCB/BJt198XFBgk8cvffxZ5dccOxk2BuaHj27gM1nmTLHxDIO0Ysm+HLPbstuSgQ5jMzbOweuYnDRpHoPDiRvO8LDdltzGDNTCwyZNhJb/ifvPsD8rltxWT4yW9GNALQcSN/AwmDF+3HaYKFuYgX5JLpY4w2MszbjtOA8bMwG/yM9If/i44I9dHn8P+8OPP7dV2/OzNz98jE8LMO4MmIFkAojJzAMm8SoHAfYHcC2MPwiqHgWjYBSMgpEIAFNGPin+tIhdAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-7205-8115","institution":"Global4cast","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ingo","middleName":"","lastName":"Piepers","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-09-25 02:35:35","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7707870/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7707870/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":92736963,"identity":"b949eca0-c05d-4899-8533-0078d89f5813","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-03 16:38:52","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1546850,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"Piepers2025InstitutionsSwitchingCircuitsNHB.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7707870/v1_covered_10fbeb12-ebbb-4e78-94c0-b282ffb7aca9.pdf"},{"id":92270802,"identity":"b8326dca-8a27-419a-b486-f977fad61d9b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-26 14:38:16","extension":"zip","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":260233,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Extended Data","description":"","filename":"Piepers2025EDInstitutionsSwitchingCircuitsNHB.zip","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7707870/v1/9a4429dfcdd1fccfc9029ddd.zip"},{"id":92270803,"identity":"a8bdf881-87a9-4164-94bf-ab4c02b6f267","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-26 14:38:17","extension":"pdf","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":5108327,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Institutions as Switching Circuits: Decision Synchrony under Rising Connectedness","description":"","filename":"Piepers2025SIInstitutionsSwitchingCircuitsNHB.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7707870/v1/86dee2289de24635bfff5f9a.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Institutions as Switching Circuits: Decision Synchrony under Rising Connectedness","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"institutions, decision synchrony, war trap, international order, early-warning signals, agent-based model","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7707870/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7707870/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Institutions reduce uncertainty, but by compressing decision latency and manufacturing common knowledge they can also couple decisions. 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