Vegetation Change Trends and Turning Points in Northwest China: A BFAST and Human Activity Perspective

Comprehending the evolution of vegetation is of great significance for probing into the alterations of terrestrial ecosystems and pinpointing upcoming challenges. Nevertheless, the mutation information in the vegetation change trends in Northwest China (NWC) remains inadequately explored. Utilizing MODIS NDVI data spanning from 2000 to 2022, the current research employs the BFAST technique to scrutinize the spatial and temporal variation traits of vegetation kNDVI as well as trend turning points (TPs) in NWC. Additionally, it integrates land - use data to delve into how human activities influence vegetation dynamics. The findings indicate that: (1) There is considerable spatial variation in the kNDVI of NWC, with high - value areas concentrated in forest - grass regions like the Qinling and Tianshan Mountains, and low - value areas in arid basins and desert zones. (2) In the research area, 36.42% of the area exhibits a stable upward trend (predominantly in southern Shaanxi and Gansu), whereas 17.59% undergoes negative reversals (shifting from increase to decrease), mainly concentrated in the Hexi Corridor and the oases of the Tarim Basin. (3) Over 75% of vegetation trend TPs occurred after 2010, with negative mutations peaking in 2016, linked to urbanization and a warmer, wetter climate.(4) Ecological restoration projects have significantly increased forestland (85.44% of areas with rising kNDVI) and improved farmland trends (71.30% of areas), but grassland degradation persists (only 45.47% of areas improved). (5) The mutation frequency in unstable vegetation areas (e.g., afforested regions) (44.59%) is significantly higher than in stable areas (31.58%), indicating that intense human intervention increases vegetation dynamics complexity. While ecological restoration projects have enhanced vegetation coverage in NWC, sustainability remains constrained by arid afforestation thresholds, grassland overloading, and climate-human synergies. There’s a need to optimize vegetation restoration strategies and enhance the protection of ecologically vulnerable regions. This research establishes an evidence base for climate-adaptive vegetation management in water-limited ecosystems. Supplementary Material File (manuscript.docx) - Download - 1.34 MB Information & Authors Information Version history Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License.

Authors Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 181views 93downloads Citations Download citation Shuangying Li, Yanyan Zhou, Dongxia Yue, et al. Vegetation Change Trends and Turning Points in Northwest China: A BFAST and Human Activity Perspective. Authorea. 05 July 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175172595.57735949/v1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175172595.57735949/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu.