Sustainable Shipping: Modeling Economical and GHG Impacts of Decarbonization Policies (Part II)

Sustainable Shipping: Modeling Economical and GHG Impacts of Decarbonization Policies (Part II) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Sustainable Shipping: Modeling Economical and GHG Impacts of Decarbonization Policies (Part II) Paula Pereda, Andrea Lucchesi, Thais Diniz Oliveira, Rayan Wolf, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5926887/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Apr, 2025 Read the published version in Sustainability → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Maritime transport handles over 80% of global trade by volume and remains the most energyefficient mode for long-distance goods movement. However, the sector contributes approximately 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, a share projected to rise to 17% by 2050 if left unregulated. In response, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has implemented initial and short-term measures to enhance energy efficiency and reduce emissions. The 2023 IMO Strategy further introduces medium-term measures, including market-based mechanisms (MBMs) such as a GHG levy and fuel intensity regulations. This study evaluates the economic, and environmental impacts of these measures using an integrated computational simulation model combining Ocean Engineering and Economics. Our results indicate that all proposed measures align with IMO’s emission reduction intermediate targets through 2035, reducing absolute emissions by more than 50%. However, economic impacts vary significantly across regions, with North Africa, Eastern Africa, Western Africa, and South Asia experiencing the most adverse effects on GDP and trade. Among the measures, the GHG levy has the strongest economic and food price impacts, whereas a revised fuel intensity mechanism imposes lower costs, especially in the short-term. Revenue redistribution mitigates GDP losses but with uneven regional benefits. This study contributes to IMO discussions by providing a comprehensive comparison of policy impacts, leveraging a general equilibrium model (GTAP) to capture indirect effects often overlooked in prior studies. The findings underscore the need for equitable and feasible decarbonization strategies in the maritime sector. Environmental Economics Maritime transport GHG emissions International Maritime Organization decarbonization economic impact assessment EEXI CII GHG levy GTAP model climate policy regional inequality food prices Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Apr, 2025 Read the published version in Sustainability → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5926887","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":408843637,"identity":"67285910-fb7a-4a1f-a9b7-2e79ebe1181f","order_by":0,"name":"Paula Pereda","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAo0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLACHgYbEMVGkpY00rUcJkGLOXvvwwdvas4nzp/dwPa4ghgtlj3HjQ3nHLuduOHOAXbDM8RoMbiRxibNwwbUIpHAJtlAlJb7z9h/8/w7lzh/BtFabrCxMfO2HUhsuEGsFsueNGbJuX3JxhvuHGw3JEqLOfsxxg9vvtnJzp/dfOwhcQ6DsyQYidKAooU4DaNgFIyCUTACAQDanDKZ+Xn3qgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6717-9522","institution":"University of São Paulo (USP)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Paula","middleName":"","lastName":"Pereda","suffix":""},{"id":408843638,"identity":"d6d14b95-5ff0-405d-896d-05883706cfdb","order_by":1,"name":"Andrea Lucchesi","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0813-245X","institution":"University of São Paulo (USP)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Andrea","middleName":"","lastName":"Lucchesi","suffix":""},{"id":408843639,"identity":"538926fc-9859-465f-a22a-fdbfd32b306a","order_by":2,"name":"Thais Diniz Oliveira","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2716-0237","institution":"University of São Paulo (USP)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Thais","middleName":"Diniz","lastName":"Oliveira","suffix":""},{"id":408843640,"identity":"84abe796-704a-4e1a-82e3-e8ab2a501020","order_by":3,"name":"Rayan Wolf","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2355-982X","institution":"University of São Paulo (USP)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rayan","middleName":"","lastName":"Wolf","suffix":""},{"id":408843641,"identity":"d72dc4e1-4398-4cd6-af05-03cc4bcadfd2","order_by":4,"name":"Crístofer Hood Marques","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0178-5666","institution":"Federal University of Rio Grande (FURG)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Crístofer","middleName":"Hood","lastName":"Marques","suffix":""},{"id":408843642,"identity":"f64cee5d-8d34-4d81-8cc9-46dd6f21ccc4","order_by":5,"name":"Luiz Felipe Assis","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5602-3779","institution":"Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Luiz","middleName":"Felipe","lastName":"Assis","suffix":""},{"id":408843643,"identity":"65416630-0cdb-46fc-8ac5-6349847d75e9","order_by":6,"name":"Jean-David Caprace","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1014-9357","institution":"Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jean-David","middleName":"","lastName":"Caprace","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-01-29 23:17:29","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5926887/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5926887/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.3390/su17093765","type":"published","date":"2025-04-22T00:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":81583764,"identity":"9297fb42-9635-40f2-a926-c16cc50cba40","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-28 20:04:02","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1622654,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ModellingEconomicAndGhgImpactsV01.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5926887/v1_covered_5f002ad7-d069-487b-b170-f2d9c0ccf458.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eSustainable Shipping: Modeling Economical and GHG Impacts of Decarbonization Policies (Part II)\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":" Institute of Economic Research Foundation (FIPE)","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Maritime transport, GHG emissions, International Maritime Organization, decarbonization, economic impact assessment, EEXI, CII, GHG levy, GTAP model, climate policy, regional inequality, food prices","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5926887/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5926887/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eMaritime transport handles over 80% of global trade by volume and remains the most energyefficient mode for long-distance goods movement. However, the sector contributes approximately 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, a share projected to rise to 17% by 2050 if left unregulated. In response, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has implemented initial and short-term measures to enhance energy efficiency and reduce emissions. The 2023 IMO Strategy further introduces medium-term measures, including market-based mechanisms (MBMs) such as a GHG levy and fuel intensity regulations. This study evaluates the economic, and environmental impacts of these measures using an integrated computational simulation model combining Ocean Engineering and Economics. Our results indicate that all proposed measures align with IMO’s emission reduction intermediate targets through 2035, reducing absolute emissions by more than 50%. However, economic impacts vary significantly across regions, with North Africa, Eastern Africa, Western Africa, and South Asia experiencing the most adverse effects on GDP and trade. Among the measures, the GHG levy has the strongest economic and food price impacts, whereas a revised fuel intensity mechanism imposes lower costs, especially in the short-term. Revenue redistribution mitigates GDP losses but with uneven regional benefits. This study contributes to IMO discussions by providing a comprehensive comparison of policy impacts, leveraging a general equilibrium model (GTAP) to capture indirect effects often overlooked in prior studies. The findings underscore the need for equitable and feasible decarbonization strategies in the maritime sector.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Sustainable Shipping: Modeling Economical and GHG Impacts of Decarbonization Policies (Part II)","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-01-31 02:18:59","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5926887/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"623d629a-5ee4-428c-878a-f117df2cd772","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 31st, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":43597200,"name":"Environmental Economics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-04-28T20:03:54+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-5926887","link":"https://doi.org/10.3390/su17093765","journal":{"identity":"sustainability","isVorOnly":true,"title":"Sustainability"},"publishedOn":"2025-04-22 00:00:00","publishedOnDateReadable":"April 22nd, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-01-31 02:18:59","video":"","vorDoi":"10.3390/su17093765","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/su17093765","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-5926887","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5926887","identity":"rs-5926887","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}