From safe to stranded: Land use and climate change threaten habitat of iconic Australian macropods

From safe to stranded: Land use and climate change threaten habitat of iconic Australian macropods | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL Ecology and Evolution This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 13 June 2025 V1 Latest version Share on From safe to stranded: Land use and climate change threaten habitat of iconic Australian macropods Authors : Elizabeth Brunton [email protected] , Aaron Brunton 0000-0002-6959-0059 , and Gabriel Conroy Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174981290.05851795/v1 Published Ecology and Evolution Version of record Peer review timeline 356 views 181 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract As the footprint from human populations increases, the associated modification and conversion of natural landscapes in a changing climate places significant pressure on terrestrial wildlife. Since areas of high biodiversity are most affected by urbanisation, there is a need to identify future challenges for species in these regions in the context of intensifying climate change. We investigated habitat dynamics for seven macropod species found in the rapidly urbanising, biodiverse Southeast Queensland (SEQ) region of Australia. Habitat suitability was modelled using presence-only occurrence data in combination with bioclimatic and landscape variables. We evaluated a ‘balanced’ Random Forest algorithm to fit distribution models, predict potential areas of current distribution, and highlight factors that may influence current and future conservation management. Over one third of predicted current suitable habitat for eastern grey kangaroos, swamp wallabies and red-necked wallabies is within the urban footprint, a greater amount than is in protected areas. Conversely, most current suitable habitats for the other species were predicted to occur in protected areas. Worryingly, a decline in suitable habitat (83-96% reduction) is projected for all seven species under future climate scenarios. Our results reveal the vulnerability of macropods in the region which face compounded threats from urbanisation and climate-induced habitat loss. This study’s findings highlight a complex set of factors that could hinder macropod species’ adaptability to future environmental changes, elevating ‘least concern’ species to ‘of concern’. Combined pressures from climate change, urbanisation, and habitat loss necessitate a broad, adaptive approach to wildlife conservation in human-dominated landscapes. Supplementary Material File (main_text.docx) Download 2.59 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 13 June 2025 Peer review timeline Published Ecology and Evolution Version of Record 9 Oct 2025 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Collection Ecology and Evolution Keywords comparative ecosystem ecosystem ecology multiple statistical terrestrial theory vertebrate Authors Affiliations Elizabeth Brunton [email protected] University of the Sunshine Coast View all articles by this author Aaron Brunton 0000-0002-6959-0059 University of the Sunshine Coast View all articles by this author Gabriel Conroy University of the Sunshine Coast View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 356 views 181 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Elizabeth Brunton, Aaron Brunton, Gabriel Conroy. From safe to stranded: Land use and climate change threaten habitat of iconic Australian macropods. Authorea . 13 June 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174981290.05851795/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. 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