Unveiling Causality: Does Demolishing Informal Settlements Cause Urban Surface Cooling?

Unveiling Causality: Does Demolishing Informal Settlements Cause Urban Surface Cooling? | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Unveiling Causality: Does Demolishing Informal Settlements Cause Urban Surface Cooling? Yujie Sun, Xuyan Gao, Jiayong Liang, Kangning Huang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7288639/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 6 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Can demolishing informal settlements actually cool the urban surface? Despite widespread renewal efforts, the direct impact of these interventions on land surface temperatures (LST) remains unclear. Most prior research has been limited to identifying associations, lacking the methodological tools to distinguish cause from correlation. Conventional before-and-after or cross-sectional comparisons are unable to disentangle the specific impact of demolition from confounding influences like ongoing urbanization, climate variability, or overlapping policy shifts. Here we apply the difference-in-differences (DiD) approach—rarely used in this context—to rigorously decode the causal relationship between informal settlement demolition and LST dynamics. Drawing on a time series of Landsat satellite thermal images, we track 77 demolished informal settlements and 584 control sites across Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou from 2002 to 2022. The DiD framework enabled us to filter out confounding factors and isolate the causal effect of urban renewal. Our findings reveal significant, city-specific cooling effects—3.04 ± 0.37 K in Beijing, 1.09 ± 0.27 K in Shanghai, and 1.23 ± 0.36 K in Guangzhou (all p < 0.05). This study provides robust causal evidence confirming that demolishing informal settlements can significantly mitigate urban heat in megacities. These findings underscore urban renewal’s potential as an effective tool for thermal management, enhancing our understanding of its direct environmental impacts. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Social science/Environmental studies Scientific community and society/Geography Social science/Geography Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files R1DIDinformalsettlementLSTSupplementaryMaterial.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 26 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Nov, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 29 Nov, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 24 Nov, 2025 First submitted to journal 24 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7288639","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":534304672,"identity":"36999abe-3914-4726-bdf3-b715601d260c","order_by":0,"name":"Yujie Sun","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"New York University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yujie","middleName":"","lastName":"Sun","suffix":""},{"id":534304673,"identity":"6f0e3287-b0f3-4590-9c47-29d0d09dd84f","order_by":1,"name":"Xuyan Gao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"New York University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xuyan","middleName":"","lastName":"Gao","suffix":""},{"id":534304676,"identity":"d500553b-f639-4060-962a-e740d104d558","order_by":2,"name":"Jiayong Liang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA70lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxmYog48ZRFZAOBJEaWEDazlDhBY4YAMb0EaEFuZ25mcSH3fUMrCxMz97+HXencQNB5gP3ubB6zA2M8mZZ44DHcZmbiy77RlQC1uyNX4tDGbSvG3HQH4xk5bcdhiohcdMGr8W9m9QLUCG5ByQFv5vBLTwgGypAWrhMZP82AC2hY2QlmLLmW1AZcw8ZdIMxw4bzzzMZmw5B48Ww/7jG298bKuT4+c/vk3yR81h2b7jzQ9vvMGnpYGBBRgLh8EuYQaSjg3MeJSDgDxQ4QcGhjqIK38wMNgT0DAKRsEoGAUjEAAAxAtGqoovNRAAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"New York University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jiayong","middleName":"","lastName":"Liang","suffix":""},{"id":534304677,"identity":"45c7217d-90ce-48d1-a628-27b2f51dc9b8","order_by":3,"name":"Kangning Huang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"New York University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kangning","middleName":"","lastName":"Huang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-04 08:23:19","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7288639/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7288639/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":94672450,"identity":"0ade29f5-db16-473e-beba-b6c63faf57b3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-29 13:40:34","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":881792,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"R1DIDinformalsettlementLSTMainclean.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7288639/v1_covered_ecec0de2-ff74-4cf7-bd0e-12ce161536b8.pdf"},{"id":94646026,"identity":"bcce90c8-7c03-43cc-bf84-490e8e1f6e39","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-29 08:47:05","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":15061,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"R1DIDinformalsettlementLSTSupplementaryMaterial.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7288639/v1/c04b352ee4de323bee9ead08.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Unveiling Causality: Does Demolishing Informal Settlements Cause Urban Surface Cooling?","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":true,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":false,"email":"","identity":"npj-environmental-social-sciences","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"npj Environmental Social Sciences","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"Unsupported Journal","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7288639/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7288639/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Can demolishing informal settlements actually cool the urban surface? Despite widespread renewal efforts, the direct impact of these interventions on land surface temperatures (LST) remains unclear. Most prior research has been limited to identifying associations, lacking the methodological tools to distinguish cause from correlation. Conventional before-and-after or cross-sectional comparisons are unable to disentangle the specific impact of demolition from confounding influences like ongoing urbanization, climate variability, or overlapping policy shifts. Here we apply the difference-in-differences (DiD) approach—rarely used in this context—to rigorously decode the causal relationship between informal settlement demolition and LST dynamics. Drawing on a time series of Landsat satellite thermal images, we track 77 demolished informal settlements and 584 control sites across Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou from 2002 to 2022. The DiD framework enabled us to filter out confounding factors and isolate the causal effect of urban renewal. Our findings reveal significant, city-specific cooling effects—3.04 ± 0.37 K in Beijing, 1.09 ± 0.27 K in Shanghai, and 1.23 ± 0.36 K in Guangzhou (all p \u003c 0.05). This study provides robust causal evidence confirming that demolishing informal settlements can significantly mitigate urban heat in megacities. 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