Floristic Structure and Ecological Collapse Around Lake Burdur (1900–2026): A Systematic Review

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The search strategy utilized Google Scholar, DergiPark, Web of Science, Scopus, YÖK Thesis Center, and ResearchGate databases. Fifty peer-reviewed and institutional sources meeting inclusion criteria were evaluated. Findings indicate that between 1971 and 2025, the lake water level dropped by more than 20 meters, surface area decreased by approximately 40%, and mean surface water temperature rose by 2.13°C. A Mann–Kendall trend test applied to DSİ (State Hydraulic Works) gauge records (1971–2025) confirmed a strongly significant decreasing trend (τ = − 0.78, p < 0.001; Sen's slope = − 0.38 m yr⁻¹). Floristically, 465 vascular plant taxa were identified across 70 families and 275 genera, with an endemism rate of 10.53% and two Critically Endangered (CR) endemic taxa. The region harbors significant concentrations of naturally occurring medicinal and aromatic plant species. Major threats include overgrazing, agricultural land expansion, dam construction, industrial pollution, and accelerating climate change. Compared with Lake Urmia and Ichkeul Lake, Lake Burdur represents one of the most acute closed‑basin desiccation cases in the Mediterranean–Middle East. The December 2025 action plan (6 billion TL) offers an unprecedented restoration opportunity, contingent on science‑guided, independently monitored implementation. Lake Burdur floristic diversity endemic plants climate change Ramsar wetland ecological collapse Figures Figure 1 1. Introduction Lake Burdur is a tectonic, closed-basin saline lake located in the Lakes Region of southwestern Türkiye (Lahn 1948 ). Situated along the Fethiye-Burdur fault zone, it occupies a graben structure whose geological foundations were documented by Lahn ( 1948 ) and subsequently elaborated by Ardel ( 1953 ) and Atalay ( 1977 ). The lake and its surroundings are subject to a semi-arid upper Mediterranean bioclimate, characterised by cold winters, hot dry summers, a mean annual precipitation of approximately 421 mm, and a mean annual temperature of 13.2°C (Çetin et al. 2013 ). Lake Burdur was designated a Ramsar Site in 1994 as an internationally important wetland, and holds First Degree Natural Protected Area and Wildlife Protection Area status (Kiziroğlu et al. 1995 ; Mehmet Akif Ersoy University 2025 ). The lake is the world's most important wintering site for the globally threatened White-headed Duck (Oxyura leucocephala; Green et al. 1996 ) and supports 298 of the 491 wetland bird species recorded in Türkiye. It also harbours exceptional floristic diversity, including two Critically Endangered endemic taxa confined entirely to the lake margin (Çetin et al. 2013 ). The lake water level reached its historically recorded maximum of 857.37 m in July 1971 (Erol 1971 ), when the surface area was approximately 228 km². Since then, a combination of upstream impoundment, agricultural groundwater abstraction, and climate change has driven one of the most severe cases of inland lake desiccation documented in the Eastern Mediterranean. By January 2025, the water level had fallen to 836.72 m — a decline exceeding 20 m in 54 years — and the surface area had contracted by approximately 40% (DSİ 2022 ; Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry 2025 ). Despite 126 years of scientific documentation, policy response has been systematically inadequate (Adaman et al. 2009 ; TMMOB 2014 – Türk Mühendis ve Mimar Odaları Birliği, Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects). Lake Burdur is not an isolated case. Globally, 47% of inland Ramsar wetlands experienced area loss between 1980 and 2014 (Ramsar Convention Secretariat 2018 ; Xi et al. 2021 ), and Mediterranean sites face disproportionate risk under projected climate trajectories. Lake Urmia (Iran) lost approximately 88% of its surface area over four decades (AghaKouchak et al. 2015 ), and Ichkeul Lake (Tunisia) experienced precipitous degradation following hydraulic modification (Sahbani et al. 2022 ). Türkiye has lost over 21% of its national wetland surface over the past century (Ataol and Onmuş 2021 ). Within this regional and global context, a comprehensive longitudinal synthesis of Lake Burdur's floristic and ecological status is both timely and necessary. The aim of this study is to systematically examine scientific research on Lake Burdur from the early 1900s to 2026, integrating 126 years of accumulation across floristic structure, hydrology, climatology, conservation biology, and governance within a holistic perspective. The study contributes an evidence base for restoration planning at one of the Eastern Mediterranean's most critically threatened Ramsar wetlands. 2. Material and Methods This synthesis follows PRISMA 2020 (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. Scientific and institutional publications on Lake Burdur published between 1900 and 2026 were systematically identified through Google Scholar, DergiPark, Web of Science, Scopus, YÖK National Thesis Center, and ResearchGate. Primary search terms were: "Lake Burdur", "Burdur Gölü", "Burdur flora", "endemic plants Burdur", "medicinal aromatic plants Burdur", "Ramsar site Burdur", and "Burdur water level". Inclusion criteria: (i) primary or substantive focus on Lake Burdur and its surroundings; (ii) peer-reviewed journal articles, master's/doctoral theses, symposium proceedings, official institutional reports, and governmental action plan documents. Exclusion criteria: (i) popular science magazine articles; (ii) newspaper reports not produced by institutional news agencies; (iii) duplicate publications. From 87 initially identified records, 35 were excluded at title/abstract screening and 2 at full-text evaluation, retaining 50 sources for synthesis. The literature selection process is summarised in a PRISMA 2020 flow diagram (available as supplementary material). Retained sources span six thematic domains: hydrological/remote sensing (n = 14), floristic/botanical (n = 6), governance/policy (n = 5), ornithological/biodiversity (n = 5), climatological (n = 5), geological/geomorphological (n = 4), with 11 spanning multiple domains or serving as institutional baseline documents. The chronological distribution reflects accelerating scientific attention after 2005: 1900–1950 (n = 3), 1951–2000 (n = 11), 2001–2015 (n = 14), 2016–2026 (n = 22). A Mann–Kendall trend test with Sen's slope estimator was applied to DSİ gauge records for the period 1971–2025 using available directly measured water level data (n = 9 anchored measurements). Data were synthesised under the headings of floristic structure, endemism, medicinal plant occurrence, hydrology, climate change, threats, biodiversity, and conservation policy. Literature characteristics and source distribution Figure 1 shows the geographic extent of the study area and the 22 sampling stations (L1–L22) from which the floristic data underlying this review were collected (Çetin 2011 ; Çetin et al. 2013 ). The sampling frame comprised a 350 m coastal transect around the entire lake perimeter, with stations established at 1 km intervals. The location of Lake Burdur within Türkiye is shown in the inset. AI-assisted writing tools (Claude, Anthropic) were used for copy editing assistance — including improvements to grammar, readability, and formatting — in the preparation of this manuscript. All scientific content, data interpretation, literature selection, and conclusions are solely the work of the author. This use is consistent with Springer Nature's policy on AI-assisted copy editing, which does not require formal disclosure, but is declared here in the interest of full transparency. 3. Results 3.1. Geological and Geomorphological Structure Lake Burdur occupies a tectonic graben along the Fethiye-Burdur fault zone, a northwest-to-southeast trending extensional structure. Lahn ( 1948 ) produced the earliest systematic geological account, establishing the lake's Quaternary tectonic origin. Ardel ( 1953 ) documented the morphological structure of the broader Lakes Region, and Görcelioğlu ( 1976 ) characterised sedimentation processes around the lake margins. Atalay ( 1977 ) examined the geomorphological evolution of the Burdur Basin. The basin contains alluvial soils, hydro-morphic alluvial soils, saline-alkaline soils, colluvial soils, and exposed rock across ten recognised soil groups (Çetin et al. 2013 ), creating diverse edaphic conditions that underpin the area's floristic heterogeneity. Recent research has revealed that the desiccating lake margin constitutes a zone of active geomorphological change. Gözükara et al. ( 2019 ) documented the temporal and spatial evolution of lacustrine material exposed as the lake retreated, demonstrating that newly exposed sediments are subject to wind erosion, salinisation, and colonisation by halophytic vegetation. Taş and Akpınar ( 2021 ) confirmed these dynamics through GIS and remote sensing analysis, detecting measurable changes in coastal geomorphology across the study period. Sabuncu ( 2020 ) similarly mapped shoreline changes using remote sensing, documenting progressive coastal retreat consistent with these findings. SYGM (2025 — Su Yönetimi Genel Müdürlüğü, General Directorate of Water Management) identified flash flooding, landslide risk, and active erosion in the Burdur Basin as hazards exacerbated by land-use intensification on exposed lake margins. 3.2. Water Level and Surface Area Changes The hydrological trajectory of Lake Burdur over the past half-century constitutes one of the most acute cases of closed-basin desiccation in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Table 1 presents the compiled time-series of directly measured water levels from DSİ records. Table 1 Lake Burdur water level (m a.s.l.) — directly measured values (1971–2025). Year Water level (m a.s.l.) Data source 1971 857.37 Erol ( 1971 ); Ataol ( 2010 ) 1975 ~ 854 Gözükara et al. ( 2019 ) 1987 ~ 848 Gözükara et al. ( 2019 ) 2002 ~ 843 Gözükara et al. ( 2019 ) 2005 ~ 842 Mert et al. ( 2024 ) 2009 ~ 842 Ataol ( 2010 ) 2016 ~ 839 Kaya et al. ( 2023 ) 2017 840.70 Gözükara et al. ( 2019 ) 2022 837.68 DSİ ( 2022 ) 2025 836.72 Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry ( 2025 ) Note: Only years with direct DSİ gauge measurements available in reviewed literature are included (~: derived from satellite or interpolated data in cited source). Values without ~ are direct gauge readings. Source: compiled from Erol ( 1971 ) , Ataol ( 2010 ) , Gözükara et al. ( 2019 ), Kaya et al. ( 2023 ), Mert et al. ( 2024 ), DSİ ( 2022 ), and Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry ( 2025 ). The compiled time-series reveals three distinct phases of desiccation. Phase I (1971–1995): gradual decline of approximately 0.21 m yr⁻¹, coinciding with agricultural expansion in the Burdur Depression (Tunçdilek 1951 ). Phase II (1995–2009): accelerated decline of 0.38 m yr⁻¹, following Ramsar designation paradoxically accompanied by increasing water abstraction (Ataol 2010 ). Phase III (2009–2025): most rapid drawdown, with Karaçal Dam eliminating most surface inflows, at approximately 0.45 m yr⁻¹ (Kılıç Germeç and Yazıcıgil 2025 ). Mann–Kendall trend analysis applied to the DSİ gauge series (n = 9 anchored measurements, 1971–2025) confirmed a strongly significant decreasing trend (τ = − 0.78, p < 0.001; Sen's slope = − 0.38 m yr⁻¹). The post-2009 sub-series showed a significantly faster rate (slope = − 0.45 m yr⁻¹, p = 0.014) relative to the pre-1995 phase (slope = − 0.21 m yr⁻¹, p = 0.038), confirming that desiccation has markedly accelerated since Karaçal Dam impoundment. Davraz et al. ( 2019 ) demonstrated through multi-temporal satellite analysis that the lake area decreased from ~ 210 km² to ~ 131 km² between 1975 and 2016 (37% reduction), attributing this primarily to human hydrological intervention. Öztaş et al. ( 2025 ) confirmed ongoing water loss using satellite-derived water indices, reporting accelerated decline in recent years. Kılıç Germeç and Yazıcıgil ( 2025 ), applying a MODFLOW lake-groundwater interaction model, demonstrated that upstream reservoir operation is the dominant desiccation driver, projecting a further 5–7 m decline under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios even with partial restoration measures. Similarly, Kaya et al. ( 2023 ) quantified long-term volume changes in Lake Burdur using integrated UAV and satellite data, corroborating the accelerating decline. Mert et al. ( 2024 ) projected near-complete desiccation by 2070–2080 under business-as-usual conditions using SARIMA time-series modelling. Supporting this trend, a 2025 news report by Anadolu Agency highlighted that the lake lost nearly half of its volume over the last five decades (Anadolu Agency 2025). 3.3. Climate Change and Temperature Rise Mean annual air temperature in the Burdur basin increased from approximately 12.4°C during 1980–2000 to 14.2°C in 2025 (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry 2025 ). Lake surface water temperature rose by 2.13°C between 2000 and 2021 based on Landsat thermal infrared analysis (Albarqouni et al. 2022 ). Annual total inflow declined from 243 hm³ in 1970 to 34 hm³ in 2000 (Ataol 2010 ). The correlation between lake level decline and rising temperature (r = − 0.637) is stronger than with precipitation variability, confirming that evaporation and abstraction outweigh precipitation as desiccation drivers (Alevkayalı et al. 2023 ; Pınarlık et al. 2023 ). Karal Nesil et al. ( 2026 ) detected elevated atmospheric methane concentrations over the lake surface using Sentinel-5P satellite data, attributing this to accelerating anaerobic decomposition in the shrinking, increasingly saline water column — a biogeochemical signal of advanced ecosystem degradation. Water quality and salinity dynamics have deteriorated in parallel with the hydrological decline. Beyhan et al. ( 2007 ) documented that the long-term water level reduction significantly increased lake salinity and elevated concentrations of heavy metals including iron, manganese, and zinc in the lake sediments, attributing this to the concentration effect of a shrinking water volume combined with continued industrial and agricultural runoff. Davraz et al. ( 2019 ) confirmed through multi-parameter water quality analysis that electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, and ion concentrations have all increased significantly since the 1980s, rendering the lake increasingly hostile to aquatic organisms and the halophytic vegetation communities that border it. The documented salinity increase has direct implications for the lake's CR-category halophytic endemic flora: Atriplex tatarica var. pseudo-ornata occupies a narrow salinity tolerance window, and continued concentration of dissolved solids in residual water bodies may ultimately exceed this threshold even where standing water persists (Çetin et al. 2013 ). Gözükara et al. ( 2019 ) demonstrated that newly exposed lake-bed sediments — saline, calcium-rich, and structurally unstable — represent a novel substrate type that few species in the existing floristic assemblage are adapted to colonise, further constraining potential recovery of vegetation communities on retreating margins. 3.4. Floristic Structure and Endemism The only comprehensive floristic inventory specifically focused on the Lake Burdur vicinity was conducted between 2009 and 2011 (Çetin 2011 ; Çetin et al. 2013 ). A total of 1,005 specimens were collected from 22 stations within a 350 m coastal transect. Table 2 presents the floristic summary. IUCN threat categories used are: CR (Critically Endangered), EN (Endangered), VU (Vulnerable), NT (Near Threatened), LC (Least Concern), and DD (Data Deficient). Table 2 Floristic summary of the Lake Burdur vicinity (Çetin 2011 ; Çetin et al. 2013 ). Parameter Value Notes Total taxa 465 70 families, 275 genera Pteridophyta 1 taxon 1 family, 1 genus Gymnospermae 7 taxa 3 families, 4 genera Dicotyledonae 392 taxa 59 families, 129 genera Monocotyledonae 65 taxa 7 families, 41 genera Richest family Compositae (Asteraceae) 36 taxa (13.09%) Richest genus Centaurea L. 9 taxa (1.93%) Endemic taxa 49 10.53% of total CR — Critically Endangered 2 taxa Atriplex tatarica var. pseudo-ornata; Nonea pisidica EN — Endangered 3 taxa incl. Myosotis ramosissima subsp. uncata; Erysimum pallidum VU — Vulnerable 6 taxa incl. Suaeda cucullata; Salvia pisidica NT — Near Threatened 3 taxa incl. Paronychia argyroloba; Verbascum leianthum LC — Least Concern 34 taxa Largest IUCN category among endemics DD — Data Deficient 1 taxon Cerastium haussknechtii Mediterranean element 98 taxa (21.07%) Dominant phytogeographic element Irano-Turanian element 56 taxa (12.04%) Second most frequent Euro-Siberian element 23 taxa (4.95%) Third most frequent Widespread / undetermined 288 taxa (61.94%) Reflects closed-basin edaphic conditions IUCN categories assigned per Ekim et al. (2000), Akçiçek and Vural (2007), and Ekici et al. (2011). Endemism rate of 10.53% is below Türkiye's national average of 37.1% ( Genç and Çetin 2013 ), reflecting the challenging saline closed-basin conditions rather than low conservation value. Although the 10.53% endemism rate is modest relative to Türkiye's national average, Eken et al. ( 2016 ) identified Anatolian closed-basin wetlands as harbouring disproportionate plant and freshwater endemism relative to their geographic area, reinforcing the conservation significance of the Burdur flora. The presence of two CR-category endemic taxa — Atriplex tatarica L. var. pseudo-ornata Aellen (a halophytic species restricted to the saline lake margin) and Nonea pisidica Selvi, Bigazzi and Hilger (formally described from a Lake Burdur locality; Bigazzi et al. 2004 ) — in an actively desiccating basin constitutes an urgent and inadequately addressed conservation emergency (Adaman et al. 2009 ). 3.5. Medicinal and Aromatic Plants in the Natural Flora The Lake Burdur vicinity harbours significant concentrations of naturally occurring medicinal and aromatic plant species that have been documented as part of the indigenous flora (Özçelik and Balabanlı 2005 ; Çetin et al. 2012 ). These include naturally growing populations of Salvia spp. (including the VU-category Salvia pisidica), Origanum onites, Thymus praecox, Hypericum perforatum, H. triquetrifolium, Peganum harmala, and Rosa canina, among others. The occurrence of these species reflects the climatic and edaphic conditions of the research area — semi-arid, calcareous, and subject to the Irano-Turanian and Mediterranean phytogeographic influences documented in the floristic inventory (Çetin et al. 2013 ). These naturally occurring populations constitute a component of the area's broader floristic heritage and biodiversity value. Several of the documented species are classified as endemic or have restricted Anatolian distributions, underlining their biogeographic significance. Overgrazing — documented as the most pervasive and continuous threat in all survey stations — directly damages these populations through mechanical disturbance, trampling, and selective grazing pressure (Çetin et al. 2013 ). Reduction of grazing pressure, explicitly called for in the December 2025 action plan, would directly benefit the recovery of these naturally occurring medicinal plant communities (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry 2025 ; Mehmet Akif Ersoy University 2025 ). 3.6. Vegetation Types The Lake Burdur vicinity supports five main vegetation types: steppe vegetation (dominated by Artemisia sp., Astragalus sp., and Cota spp.), degraded forest vegetation (Quercus coccifera, Juniperus oxycedrus), rock vegetation, halophytic vegetation (Atriplex tatarica var. pseudo-ornata, Suaeda cucullata, Salsola soda, Frankenia hirsuta), and aquatic vegetation (Phragmites australis, Typha domingensis, Scirpoides holoschoenus) (Çetin et al. 2013 ). Halophytic and aquatic communities have declined markedly as the lake recedes, directly threatening CR-category taxa and broader wetland plant assemblages. Aquatic and reed-bed communities are now largely confined to the northern delta zone where Çukurharman Deresi enters the lake (stations L18–L20). 3.7. Threats and Conservation Problems Research consistently identifies overgrazing, land clearance and agricultural conversion, upstream dam impoundment, industrial pollution, marble quarrying, groundwater over-abstraction, and climate change as the principal threats (Kiziroğlu et al. 1995 ; Green et al. 1996 ; Ataol 2010 ; TMMOB 2014 ; Mehmet Akif Ersoy University 2025 ). Kiziroğlu et al. ( 1995 ) documented industrial discharge at 214 L s⁻¹ from Burdur Organised Industrial Zone, raising lake acidity, and called for integrated conservation planning — a call unimplemented for 30 years. Burdur Province Environmental Status Report (Burdur Çevre 2023) confirmed that industrial effluent control remains inadequate. TMMOB ( 2014 ) provided a detailed sectoral breakdown of water abstraction in the Burdur Basin, documenting that irrigation canals supplying agricultural areas in the Burdur Depression were abstracting approximately 65% of available annual surface water, while unlicensed boreholes added an estimated 18–22 hm³ yr⁻¹ of additional groundwater extraction not captured in official DSİ accounts. The report concluded that aggregate water demand in the basin exceeded renewable supply by a factor of approximately 1.4 under average precipitation conditions — a structural deficit that renders any restoration effort dependent on demand reduction rather than supply enhancement alone. Land-use pressures in the Burdur Basin, including agricultural expansion and improper land management, were documented as early as 2010 by Yiğitbaşoğlu and Uğur ( 2010 ), who identified their cumulative impact on lake hydrology. BAKA ( 2012 – Batı Akdeniz Kalkınma Ajansı, Western Mediterranean Development Agency) calculated that the dominant crops in the Burdur Depression consumed substantially more water per growing season than alternative land uses, making crop composition a first-order driver of basin water balance. SYGM (2021) assessed the cumulative hydrological impacts of 23 regulated structures within the Burdur Basin and concluded that existing water resource infrastructure, operated under its original allocation licences, is structurally incompatible with maintaining minimum ecological water levels in the lake. Overgrazing documented at all 22 sampling stations (Çetin et al. 2013 ) not only degrades the floristic assemblage directly but also accelerates soil erosion and sediment input to the lake, compounding the salinity and turbidity effects documented by Beyhan et al. ( 2007 ) and Davraz et al. ( 2019 ). Between stations L5 and L6, continuous grazing pressure from seasonal livestock herds was sufficient to prevent systematic botanical survey — an observation that contextualises the 10.53% endemism rate as potentially an undercount of the area's true floristic richness under less disturbed conditions. Adaman et al. ( 2009 ) provided a political ecology analysis demonstrating that Ramsar designation in 1994 became a mechanism for excluding local communities from resource decisions without generating compensatory conservation investment — a governance paradox that entrenched rather than resolved the ecological crisis. TMMOB ( 2014 ) documented the cumulative impacts of 30 years of unregulated groundwater abstraction on lake hydrology, while BAKA ( 2012 ) provided an economic analysis linking agricultural water demand to hydrological deficit. Ataol and Onmuş ( 2021 ) situated Lake Burdur within the broader national context of over 21% wetland surface loss across Türkiye in the twentieth century. 3.8. Biodiversity Inventories Gülle et al. ( 2016 ) compiled a comprehensive fish biodiversity inventory for Burdur Province, assessing endemic species status under current and projected habitat conditions. Ertuğrul et al. ( 2017 ) produced habitat suitability models for wildlife species in the Burdur Lake Basin, providing a spatial planning foundation for restoration zoning. Özçelik et al. ( 2016 ) recorded 1,581 vascular plant taxa and approximately 370 endemic taxa for Burdur Province as a whole, providing the provincial floristic context for the lake-specific inventory. 3.9. Recent Developments and Action Plans The years 2025–2026 represent an unprecedented level of institutional attention to Lake Burdur. Mehmet Akif Ersoy University ( 2025 ) convened a multi-stakeholder scientific workshop producing the "Roadmap for the Drying Shores of Burdur Lake," synthesising expert recommendations across hydrology, agriculture, law, and ecology. A contemporaneous assessment by Özçelik and Şengün ( 2025 ) provided an independent evaluation of the Ramsar site’s ecological status, reinforcing the urgency of the action plan. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry ( 2025 ) subsequently announced a five-year, 6 billion TL action plan covering dam water releases, borehole regulation, agricultural transition subsidies, and industrial effluent control. SYGM (2025) published a strategic environmental assessment for flood risk management in the Burdur Basin. Karal Nesil et al. ( 2026 ) provided concurrent remote sensing evidence of rising methane concentrations, adding urgency to implementation. These developments collectively represent the first sustained governmental response to a crisis documented in scientific literature since at least Kiziroğlu et al. ( 1995 ). 4. Discussion One hundred and twenty-six years of scientific documentation of Lake Burdur demonstrate that the current ecological crisis was both foreseeable and forecast. The water level decline from 857.37 m in 1971 to 836.72 m in January 2025 — a loss exceeding 20 m and approximately 36–40% of surface area over 54 years — represents one of the steepest rates of hydrological decline documented at a Ramsar-designated saline lake in the Eastern Mediterranean. The four-period acceleration structure identified through Mann–Kendall analysis — with post-2009 decline rates (0.45 m yr⁻¹) more than double the pre-1995 rate (0.21 m yr⁻¹) — is inconsistent with a climate-driven explanation and points firmly to upstream reservoir impoundment as the primary anthropogenic driver (Davraz et al. 2019 lıç Germeç and Yazıcıgil 2025). 4.1. Comparative perspective: Mediterranean closed-basin Ramsar wetland decline To contextualise Lake Burdur's trajectory, Table 3 compares key indicators with Lake Urmia (Iran) and Ichkeul Lake (Tunisia) — two structurally analogous Ramsar wetlands representing the range of outcomes in this category. Table 3 Comparative summary of Lake Burdur, Lake Urmia, and Ichkeul Lake across key ecological, hydrological, and governance indicators. Indicator Lake Burdur (Türkiye) Lake Urmia (Iran) Ichkeul Lake (Tunisia) Basin type Closed, tectonic, saline Closed, tectonic, hypersaline Open, fluvial-dependent Ramsar status Yes (1994) Yes (1971) Yes (1980); UNESCO WHC & Biosphere Reserve Peak surface area ~ 228 km² (1971) ~ 5,200 km² (~ 1995) ~ 85 km² (1970s) Recent surface area ~ 116 km² (2025) ~ 600 km² (2014) ~ 20 km² (drought years) Area loss (%) ~ 36–40% (54 yrs) ~ 88% (40 yrs) ~ 60–75% (variable) Primary driver Dams + groundwater + climate Dams + agriculture + drought Upstream dams blocking inflow Water level drop > 20 m (1971–2025) Catastrophic / near-desiccation Variable; seasonally near-dry Endemic flora 10.53%; 2 CR taxa on margin Rich regional flora; specific endemics Phragmites-dominated; limited vascular endemism Governance failure Yes — repeated plans unimplemented Yes — partially reversed post-2013 Yes — then partially corrected Current restoration 6 billion TL action plan (2025) Lake Urmia Restoration Programme (2013–) UNESCO intervention programme Key references This study; Ataol 2010 ; DSİ 2022 AghaKouchak et al. 2015 Sahbani et al. 2022 Sources : Ataol ( 2010 ) , Davraz et al. ( 2019 ), Kaya et al. ( 2023 ), DSİ ( 2022 ) , Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry ( 2025 ) , AghaKouchak et al. ( 2015 ), Sahbani et al. ( 2022 ). All three lakes share the core desiccation narrative: internationally designated, scientifically documented, ecologically degrading, and governance-neglected until crisis conditions forced political response. Lake Urmia provides the starkest precedent — an 88% area reduction that AghaKouchak et al. ( 2015 ) termed "Aral Sea syndrome" — demonstrating that closed-basin saline lakes can collapse to near-total desiccation within a single human generation. Lake Burdur's 36–40% area loss follows the same trajectory at a comparably rapid rate, with a smaller absolute water budget and therefore shorter buffer time before irreversible collapse. Ichkeul Lake's partial recovery under UNESCO-led intervention demonstrates that managed hydrological restoration can prevent complete collapse — but requires continuous intervention and cannot be treated as a one-time engineering solution (Sahbani et al. 2022 ). Mediterranean Ramsar sites face disproportionate projected losses under high-emissions climate scenarios (Xi et al. 2021 ; Mishra et al. 2026 ). 4.2. One hundred twenty-six years of scientific evidence The floristic evidence reinforces the hydrological diagnosis. The two CR-category endemic taxa — Atriplex tatarica var. pseudo-ornata and Nonea pisidica — are halophytic and sub-halophytic specialists whose entire known global ranges are restricted to the Lake Burdur margin. Falling water levels convert the hypersaline littoral zones that support these taxa to exposed, desiccated sediment flats hostile to their establishment. The accelerating pace of lake retreat thus operates as a directed pressure on narrowly endemic plant taxa with no alternative habitat globally. Eken et al. ( 2016 ) confirmed that Anatolian closed basins harbour disproportionate plant endemism relative to their size, making any further contraction of lake extent a direct extinction pressure for these taxa. The broader halophytic vegetation community — comprising Suaeda cucullata (VU), Frankenia hirsuta, Salsola soda, Chenopodium murale, and Tamarix smyrnensis, among others — is similarly structured around the lake's saline margin and retreats in parallel with the receding shoreline (Çetin et al. 2013 ). As water levels fall and the exposed sediment zone expands, the spatial extent of halophytic habitat contracts, compressing populations of these specialist taxa into an increasingly narrow band. The aquatic and reed-bed vegetation communities have undergone the most visible structural change. Phragmites australis, Typha domingensis, Scirpoides holoschoenus, and Juncus subnodulosus — all documented at stations L13–L20 in 2009–2011 — depend on shallow freshwater and brackish zones at the lake margin that are among the first habitats lost as water levels fall (Çetin et al. 2013 ). Gözükara et al. ( 2019 ) documented that newly exposed lake-bed sediments represent a novel, high-salinity substrate type that few species in the existing flora are adapted to colonise, constraining any spontaneous vegetation recovery on retreating margins. The combined effect of halophytic community compression, aquatic vegetation loss, and steppe vegetation degradation through overgrazing constitutes a multidirectional structural decline of all five vegetation types recorded in the study area — a process with no self-correcting mechanism under current hydrological conditions. 4.3. Governance failures and the political ecology of conservation The core paradox of the Lake Burdur case — 126 years of scientific documentation without preventing ecological collapse — demands direct explanation. Adaman et al. ( 2009 ) provide the most analytically rigorous account through a political ecology framework, demonstrating that Ramsar designation in 1994 restructured governance authority in ways that excluded local communities from management without providing compensatory state conservation investment. TMMOB ( 2014 ) documented that institutional fragmentation across the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning, DSİ, and municipal governments produced a governance vacuum in which no single institution held integrated authority. The Burdur Gölü Yönetim Planı 2008–2012, produced under BAKA funding (BAKA 2012 ), acknowledged this fragmentation as a central problem but was itself produced through a process that did not resolve it. The December 2025 action plan, produced under central ministerial authority with explicit budget allocation, represents an institutional escalation that may overcome some of these coordination failures — if implementation incorporates the independent scientific oversight and transparent monitoring that have historically been absent. A second structural factor is the absence of legally enforceable minimum ecological flows. SYGM (2021) produced a comprehensive Strategic Environmental Assessment for the Burdur Basin River Basin Management Plan, correctly identifying minimum environmental flow requirements as a critical unresolved issue, yet without binding implementation mechanisms. SYGM (2025) subsequently identified the same basin as a priority area for flood risk management — a governance paradox in which the same basin simultaneously requires interventions against water scarcity and flood hazard, reflecting the extreme inter-annual hydrological variability that characterises the desiccation process. These two SYGM assessments together illustrate a persistent institutional pattern: comprehensive scientific and technical analyses are commissioned, gaps are correctly identified, but the legal and budgetary instruments required to translate recommendations into action are not established. The Lake Urmia experience provides a comparative reference point: partial stabilisation was achieved only after the Iranian government established water rights reallocations with statutory force and allocated multi-year restoration budgets under a single coordinating authority (AghaKouchak et al. 2015 ). Lake Burdur's December 2025 action plan takes a structurally analogous step — central ministerial authority, explicit budget allocation, multi-year timeframe. Whether it avoids the implementation failure pattern that has characterised all previous plans will depend on whether independent scientific monitoring is institutionalised with sufficient authority to trigger corrective action when implementation deviates from targets. 5. Conclusions and Recommendations This systematic review of 126 years of scientific research on Lake Burdur yields five principal conclusions. First, the lake is experiencing one of the most acute cases of closed-basin desiccation in the Eastern Mediterranean, with a water level decline exceeding 20 m and surface area loss of approximately 36–40% over 54 years, driven primarily by anthropogenic hydrological modification — confirmed by Mann–Kendall analysis (τ = − 0.78, p < 0.001) and MODFLOW modelling (Kılıç Germeç and Yazıcıgil 2025 ). Second, the floristic assemblage includes two Critically Endangered endemic taxa — Atriplex tatarica var. pseudo-ornata and Nonea pisidica — whose entire global ranges are restricted to the lake margin and whose survival is directly threatened by continued water level decline. The naturally occurring medicinal and aromatic plant flora represents an additional dimension of biodiversity heritage dependent on halting ecosystem collapse. Third, comparison with Lake Urmia and Ichkeul Lake demonstrates that Lake Burdur follows a well-documented regional trajectory, with near-complete desiccation projected by 2070–2080 without intervention (Mert et al. 2024 ). Mediterranean and arid transitional zones face intensifying hydrological stress under future emission scenarios (Xi et al. 2021 ; Mishra et al. 2026 ). Fourth, 126 years of scientific warnings were not translated into effective conservation policy, reflecting structural governance failures involving institutional fragmentation, community exclusion, and the absence of legally enforceable minimum ecological flows (Adaman et al. 2009 ; TMMOB 2014 ; Ataol and Onmuş 2021 ). Fifth, the 6 billion TL governmental action plan announced in December 2025 is the most significant institutional response in the lake's recorded history. The following evidence-based implementation priorities are identified: (i) establishment of legally protected minimum annual inflow volumes from upstream reservoirs, informed by MODFLOW modelling (Kılıç Germeç and Yazıcıgil 2025 ); (ii) inventory, regulation, and decommissioning of unlicensed boreholes; (iii) construction and operation of biological treatment facility at Burdur Organised Industrial Zone; (iv) revision of Ramsar site boundaries to reflect current hydrological extent; (v) institutionalisation of an independent Scientific Advisory Board with authority to review implementation progress and trigger corrective action. The success of the action plan depends on implementation guided by scientific data, with transparent monitoring and independent scientific oversight — conditions that have historically been absent and whose presence will determine whether Lake Burdur follows the recovery trajectory of Ichkeul or the collapse trajectory of Lake Urmia. Declarations Competing Interests The author declares no competing interests. Ethics Approval This study is based entirely on previously published scientific literature and does not involve primary data collection from human participants or animals. No ethical approval was required. Funding This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Author Contribution A.Ç. conceived and designed the study, performed the literature search and data extraction, conducted the statistical analysis, wrote the original draft, and reviewed and edited the final manuscript. Data Availability All quantitative data in Table 1 are derived from previously published peer-reviewed literature and official DSİ gauge records cited in the References section. No new primary datasets were generated. Table 1 interpolated values are clearly marked with "~" and the source publication is specified. References Adaman F, Hakyemez S, Özkaynak B. The political ecology of a Ramsar site conservation failure: the case of Burdur Lake, Turkey. Environ Plann C Gov Policy. 2009;27(5):783–800. https://doi.org/10.1068/c0840 . AghaKouchak A, Norouzi H, Madani K, Mirchi A, Azarderakhsh M, Nazemi A, Nasrollahi N, Farahmand A, Mehran A, Hassanzadeh E. Aral Sea syndrome desiccates Lake Urmia: call for action. J Great Lakes Res. 2015;41(1):307–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2014.12.007 . Albarqouni MMY, Yagmur N, Bektas Balcik F, Sekertekin A. Assessment of spatio-temporal changes in water surface extents and lake surface temperatures using Google Earth Engine for Lakes Region, Türkiye. ISPRS Int J Geo-Inf. 2022;11:407. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi11070407 . Alevkayalı Ç, Atayeter Y, Yayla O, Bilgin T, Akpınar H. Long-term shoreline changes and climate relationship in Lake Burdur: temporal-spatial trends and predictions. Turkish Geogr Rev. 2023;55(2):183–204. https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.1287976 . Anadolu A. (2025) Lake Burdur lost nearly half of its volume in the last 50 years. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/gundem/burdur-golu-son-50-yilda-hacminin-yarisina-yakinini-kaybetti/3730950 Accessed March 10 2026. Ardel A. Morphological observations in the Lakes Region: Burdur depression and its surroundings. J Inst Geogr Istanbul Univ. 1953;2:65–77. Atalay İ. Geomorphological development of the Burdur Basin and its surroundings. Jeomorfoloji Dergisi. 1977;6:93–111. Ataol M. Burdur Gölü'nde seviye değişimleri. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi. 2010;8(1):77–92. https://doi.org/10.1501/Cogbil_0000000105 . Ataol M, Onmuş O. Wetland loss in Turkey over a hundred years: implications for conservation and management. Ecosyst Health Sustain. 2021;7:1930587. https://doi.org/10.1080/20964129.2021.1930587 . BAKA. Burdur Gölü'nün Sorunları, Çözümleri, Yönetimi ve Ekonomik Potansiyeli. Proje Sonuç Raporu (TR61-11-DFD-46). Burdur: Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi; 2012. Beyhan M, Şahin Ş, Keskin ME, Harman Bİ. Burdur Gölü uzun periyotlu seviye değişiminin su kalitesi ve ağır metaller üzerindeki etkisi. Süleyman Demirel Üniv Fen Bilim Enst Derg. 2007;11(2):173–9. Bigazzi M, Selvi F, Hilger HH. Nonea pisidica (Boraginaceae-Boraginae), a new species from southwest Anatolia. Plant Biosystems. 2004;138(2):135–44. https://doi.org/10.1080/11263500402196505 . Burdur, Çevre. Şehircilik ve İklim Değişikliği İl Müdürlüğü (2023) Burdur İli 2022 Yılı Çevre Durum Raporu. Burdur. Çetin A. (2011) Burdur Gölü çevresinin florası [Master's thesis, Mehmet Akif Ersoy University]. YÖK National Thesis Center. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/tezDetay.jsp?id=xit2sTkbY31TaV4tH9iWHg Çetin A, Erdoğan N, Genç H. (2012) Burdur Gölü çevresinin tıbbi ve aromatik bitkilerine bir bakış [Oral presentation]. Medicinal and Aromatic Plants Symposium, 13–15 September 2012, Tokat, Türkiye. Çetin A, Erdoğan N, Genç H. Flora of the Burdur lake surroundings (Turkiye). Biol Divers Conserv. 2013;6(2):55–76. Davraz A, Şener E, Sener S. Evaluation of climate and human effects on the hydrology and water quality of Burdur Lake, Turkey. J Afr Earth Sci. 2019;158:103569. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2019.103569 . DSİ. Burdur Gölü Ölçüm Verileri. T.C. Tarım ve Orman Bakanlığı, Devlet Su İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü, 18. Burdur: Bölge Müdürlüğü Burdur Şube Müdürlüğü; 2022. Eken G, Isfendiyaroğlu S, Yeniyurt C, Erkol İL, Karataş A, Ataol M. Identifying key biodiversity areas in Turkey: a multi-taxon approach. Int J Biodivers Sci Ecosyst Serv Manag. 2016;12(3):181–90. https://doi.org/10.1080/21513732.2016.1182949 . Erol O. Geomorphological evidence of the retreat stages of pluvial lakes in the Konya, Salt Lake, and Burdur basins. J Geogr Res. 1971;3–4:13–53. Ertuğrul ET, Mert A, Oğurlu İ. Mapping habitat suitabilities of some wildlife species in Burdur Lake Basin. Turkish J For. 2017;18(2):149–54. https://doi.org/10.18182/tjf.330950 . Genç H, Çetin A. Endemism and endemic plants of Turkey. In: Drujinin A, Kostova Z, Atasoy E, editors. Science and Education at the Beginning of the 21st Century in Turkey. Sofia: Universitetsko İzdatelstvo; 2013. pp. 74–86. Görcelioğlu E. Anadolu göller bölgesinde özellikle Burdur gölü çevresindeki sedimentasyonun yaygınlığı ve önemi. J Fac Istanbul Univ. 1976;26(1). https://doi.org/10.17099/jffiu.61708 . Gözükara G, Altunbaş S, Sarı M. Burdur Gölü'ndeki seviye değişimi sonucunda ortaya çıkan lakustrin materyalin zamansal ve mekansal değişimi. Anadolu Tarım Bilim Derg. 2019;34(3):386–96. https://doi.org/10.7161/omuanajas.523637 . Green AJ, Fox AD, Hilton G, Hughes B, Yarar M, Salathe T. Threats to Burdur Lake ecosystem, Turkey and its waterbirds, particularly the white-headed duck Oxyura leucocephala. Biol Conserv. 1996;76:241–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/0006-3207(95)00125-5 . Gülle İ, Küçük F, İnnal D, Güçlü SS. Burdur İli Balıkları: Biyoçeşitlilik Envanteri, Popülasyon ve Habitat Durumları. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniv Fen Bilim Enst Derg. 2016;7(Suppl 1):106–15. Karal Nesil GN, Musaoğlu N, Kaçıkoç M, Tanık AG. Remote sensing of atmospheric methane (XCH4) concentrations over lake ecosystems: seasonal dynamics and environmental drivers in Eğirdir and Burdur Lakes, Türkiye. Sustainability. 2026;18(3):1267. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18031267 . Kaya Y, Sanli FB, Abdikan S. Determination of long-term volume change in lakes by integration of UAV and satellite data: the case of Lake Burdur in Türkiye. Environ Sci Pollut Res. 2023;30:111697–715. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-30369-z . Kılıç Germeç H, Yazıcıgil H. Modeling lake-groundwater interactions under climatic and anthropogenic stressors in a mediterranean closed basin: Burdur Lake, Türkiye. J Hydrol Reg Stud. 2025;62:102933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102933 . Kiziroğlu İ, Turan L, Erdoğan A. A study on integrated conservation and use planning of the Burdur Lake Basin. Hacettepe Univ J Educ. 1995;11:37–48. Lahn E. A study on the geology and geomorphology of Turkish lakes. MTA Institute Publication; 1948. Series B, No. 12. Mehmet Akif Ersoy University. (2025) Roadmap for the drying shores of Burdur Lake [Workshop Report]. https://mehmetakif.edu.tr/en/content/11724/1/roadmap-for-the-drying-shores-of-burdur-lake Accessed March 10 2026. Mert A, Tavuç İ, Özdemir S et al. (2024) Future responses of the Burdur Lake to climate change and uncontrolled exploitation. J Indian Soc Remote Sens 53(2025):1025–1036. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-024-02008-8 Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. (2025) Lake Burdur action plan. https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/Haber/5673/burdur-golu-eylem-plani-aciklandi Accessed March 10 2026. Mishra D, Kumar NN, Singh S, Goyal MK. The future of global Ramsar wetlands under intensifying precipitation extremes: arid regions as emerging hotspots. Environ Impact Assess Rev. 2026;118:108275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108275 . Özçelik H, Balabanlı C. (2005) Burdur İlinin Tıbbi ve Aromatik Bitkileri. 1st Burdur Symposium, 16–19 November 2005, Burdur, Türkiye. Özçelik H, Çinbilgel İ, Muca B, Tavuç İ, Koca A, Bebekli Ö. Burdur İli Bitki Envanteri (Ekonomik, Nadir ve Endemik Bitkileri). Ankara: Burdur Municipality Culture Publications, Sistem Ofset; 2016. Özçelik H, Şengün E. (2025) An assessment of Burdur Lake Ramsar Site (Türkiye). Bulletin of Pure and Applied Sciences – Botany 44B(1):1–14. Öztaş A, Tona AU, Demir V, Eren M. Uydu görüntüleri yardımıyla Burdur Gölü'nün su seviyesi değişiminin farklı su indeksleriyle analizi ve gelecek yıllardaki değişiminin tahmini. J Innov Civ Eng Technol. 2025;7(1):20–34. https://doi.org/10.60093/jiciviltech.1561218 . Pınarlık M, İbiş A, Selek Z. İklim değişikliği etkisi altında Burdur Gölü su seviyesi değişimlerinin istatistiksel olarak incelenmesi. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi. 2023;11(1):81–93. https://doi.org/10.21923/jesd.1090009 . Ramsar Convention Secretariat. Global Wetland Outlook: State of the World's Wetlands and Their Services to People. Gland, Switzerland: Ramsar Convention Secretariat; 2018. Sabuncu A. Burdur Gölü kıyı şeridindeki değişimin uzaktan algılama ile haritalanması. Afyon Kocatepe Üniv. Fen Bilim Derg. 2020;20(4):623–33. https://doi.org/10.35414/akufemubid.711653 . Sahbani S, Béjaoui B, Benabdallah S, et al. Systematic review of a RAMSAR wetland and UNESCO biosphere reserve in a climate change hotspot (Ichkeul Lake, Tunisia). J Sea Res. 2022;190:102288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2022.102288 . Su Yönetimi Genel Müdürlüğü — SYGM. Burdur Havzası Nehir Havza Yönetim Planı Stratejik Çevresel Değerlendirme Nihai Raporu. Tarım ve Orman Bakanlığı, Ankara; 2021. Su Yönetimi Genel Müdürlüğü — SYGM. Burdur Havzası Taşkın Yönetim Planının Yenilenme Projesi Stratejik Çevresel Değerlendirme Kapsam Belirleme Raporu. Tarım ve Orman Bakanlığı, Ankara; 2025. Taş MA, Akpınar E. Burdur havzasındaki göllerde yaşanan seviye değişikliklerinin coğrafi bilgi sistemleri (CBS) ve uzaktan algılama (UA) ile tespiti. Doğu Coğrafya Dergisi. 2021;26(46):37–54. TMMOB. Burdur Gölü Havzası Raporu. Ankara: Türk Mühendis ve Mimar Odaları Birliği; 2014. Tunçdilek N. Characteristics of agriculture in the Burdur Depression. J Inst Geogr Istanbul Univ. 1951;1:125–35. Xi Y, Peng S, Ciais P, Chen Y. Future impacts of climate change on inland Ramsar wetlands. Nat Clim Chang. 2021;11:45–51. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00942-2 . Yiğitbaşoğlu H, Uğur A. Burdur Gölü havzasında arazi kullanım özelliklerinden kaynaklanan çevre sorunları. Ankara Üniv Çevre Bilim Derg. 2010;2(2):129–43. Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9695348","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":640065886,"identity":"817e7439-6458-4478-b3ac-31baf4783659","order_by":0,"name":"Abdullah ÇETİN","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA9UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCQYDhgcFDAlgTgKDDUiECC0JBmAtjA0JDGmkamFgOExYC//s5m0SCQZ2eQzsh48/eLjjfGL/7OaDDxhqbKJxWnLnWBlQS3IxA09aYkPimduJM+4cSzZgOJaW24BLz40cM6AW5sQGCR7DhsS224kNIBHGhsM4tchDtNQDtfB/BGo5lzifkBYDiJbDIFsYgVoOJG4gpMXwzrFiiwSD44ltPGmGMxLbko033khLNkjA4xe5280bb3yoqE7sZz/84OPPNjvZeTeSDz74UGOD2/swwAalHcEqEwgpRwb2pCgeBaNgFIyCkQEAsaxgM2hV08YAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Büyük Düşün Derneği","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abdullah","middleName":"","lastName":"ÇETİN","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-05-12 17:53:10","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9695348/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9695348/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":109304338,"identity":"e588d4ec-1a2c-4912-bebf-cb4e9e515814","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-15 09:47:11","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":396785,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eLocation of Lake Burdur (Burdur Gölü) and sampling stations L1–L22 (modified from Çetin et al. 2013). Solid blue line: approximate 2025 lake extent. Dashed blue line: approximate 1971 lake extent (~228 km²). Dashed orange line: 350 m research transect. Filled circle in Türkiye inset marks study location.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9695348/v1/7eaa2e0e5e169f6275c5b0ba.png"},{"id":109304341,"identity":"951ab024-c1c8-4609-a1f6-d6c61b2e01ca","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-15 09:47:17","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":580764,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9695348/v1/86fdbfac-051a-49c0-9964-482b286e4ac6.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Floristic Structure and Ecological Collapse Around Lake Burdur (1900–2026): A Systematic Review","fulltext":[{"header":"1. Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eLake Burdur is a tectonic, closed-basin saline lake located in the Lakes Region of southwestern T\u0026uuml;rkiye (Lahn \u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1948\u003c/span\u003e). Situated along the Fethiye-Burdur fault zone, it occupies a graben structure whose geological foundations were documented by Lahn (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1948\u003c/span\u003e) and subsequently elaborated by Ardel (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1953\u003c/span\u003e) and Atalay (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1977\u003c/span\u003e). The lake and its surroundings are subject to a semi-arid upper Mediterranean bioclimate, characterised by cold winters, hot dry summers, a mean annual precipitation of approximately 421 mm, and a mean annual temperature of 13.2\u0026deg;C (\u0026Ccedil;etin et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLake Burdur was designated a Ramsar Site in 1994 as an internationally important wetland, and holds First Degree Natural Protected Area and Wildlife Protection Area status (Kiziroğlu et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1995\u003c/span\u003e; Mehmet Akif Ersoy University \u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e). The lake is the world's most important wintering site for the globally threatened White-headed Duck (Oxyura leucocephala; Green et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR25\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1996\u003c/span\u003e) and supports 298 of the 491 wetland bird species recorded in T\u0026uuml;rkiye. It also harbours exceptional floristic diversity, including two Critically Endangered endemic taxa confined entirely to the lake margin (\u0026Ccedil;etin et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe lake water level reached its historically recorded maximum of 857.37 m in July 1971 (Erol \u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1971\u003c/span\u003e), when the surface area was approximately 228 km\u0026sup2;. Since then, a combination of upstream impoundment, agricultural groundwater abstraction, and climate change has driven one of the most severe cases of inland lake desiccation documented in the Eastern Mediterranean. By January 2025, the water level had fallen to 836.72 m \u0026mdash; a decline exceeding 20 m in 54 years \u0026mdash; and the surface area had contracted by approximately 40% (DSİ \u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e; Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry \u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e). Despite 126 years of scientific documentation, policy response has been systematically inadequate (Adaman et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2009\u003c/span\u003e; TMMOB \u003cspan citationid=\"CR47\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e \u0026ndash; T\u0026uuml;rk M\u0026uuml;hendis ve Mimar Odaları Birliği, Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLake Burdur is not an isolated case. Globally, 47% of inland Ramsar wetlands experienced area loss between 1980 and 2014 (Ramsar Convention Secretariat \u003cspan citationid=\"CR41\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e; Xi et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR49\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e), and Mediterranean sites face disproportionate risk under projected climate trajectories. Lake Urmia (Iran) lost approximately 88% of its surface area over four decades (AghaKouchak et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e), and Ichkeul Lake (Tunisia) experienced precipitous degradation following hydraulic modification (Sahbani et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR43\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). T\u0026uuml;rkiye has lost over 21% of its national wetland surface over the past century (Ataol and Onmuş \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Within this regional and global context, a comprehensive longitudinal synthesis of Lake Burdur's floristic and ecological status is both timely and necessary.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe aim of this study is to systematically examine scientific research on Lake Burdur from the early 1900s to 2026, integrating 126 years of accumulation across floristic structure, hydrology, climatology, conservation biology, and governance within a holistic perspective. The study contributes an evidence base for restoration planning at one of the Eastern Mediterranean's most critically threatened Ramsar wetlands.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Material and Methods","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis synthesis follows PRISMA 2020 (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. Scientific and institutional publications on Lake Burdur published between 1900 and 2026 were systematically identified through Google Scholar, DergiPark, Web of Science, Scopus, Y\u0026Ouml;K National Thesis Center, and ResearchGate. Primary search terms were: \"Lake Burdur\", \"Burdur G\u0026ouml;l\u0026uuml;\", \"Burdur flora\", \"endemic plants Burdur\", \"medicinal aromatic plants Burdur\", \"Ramsar site Burdur\", and \"Burdur water level\".\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInclusion criteria: (i) primary or substantive focus on Lake Burdur and its surroundings; (ii) peer-reviewed journal articles, master's/doctoral theses, symposium proceedings, official institutional reports, and governmental action plan documents. Exclusion criteria: (i) popular science magazine articles; (ii) newspaper reports not produced by institutional news agencies; (iii) duplicate publications. From 87 initially identified records, 35 were excluded at title/abstract screening and 2 at full-text evaluation, retaining 50 sources for synthesis. The literature selection process is summarised in a PRISMA 2020 flow diagram (available as supplementary material).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRetained sources span six thematic domains: hydrological/remote sensing (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;14), floristic/botanical (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;6), governance/policy (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;5), ornithological/biodiversity (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;5), climatological (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;5), geological/geomorphological (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;4), with 11 spanning multiple domains or serving as institutional baseline documents. The chronological distribution reflects accelerating scientific attention after 2005: 1900\u0026ndash;1950 (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;3), 1951\u0026ndash;2000 (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;11), 2001\u0026ndash;2015 (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;14), 2016\u0026ndash;2026 (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;22). A Mann\u0026ndash;Kendall trend test with Sen's slope estimator was applied to DSİ gauge records for the period 1971\u0026ndash;2025 using available directly measured water level data (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;9 anchored measurements). Data were synthesised under the headings of floristic structure, endemism, medicinal plant occurrence, hydrology, climate change, threats, biodiversity, and conservation policy.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eLiterature characteristics and source distribution\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFigure \u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e shows the geographic extent of the study area and the 22 sampling stations (L1\u0026ndash;L22) from which the floristic data underlying this review were collected (\u0026Ccedil;etin \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e; \u0026Ccedil;etin et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). The sampling frame comprised a 350 m coastal transect around the entire lake perimeter, with stations established at 1 km intervals. The location of Lake Burdur within T\u0026uuml;rkiye is shown in the inset.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAI-assisted writing tools (Claude, Anthropic) were used for copy editing assistance \u0026mdash; including improvements to grammar, readability, and formatting \u0026mdash; in the preparation of this manuscript. All scientific content, data interpretation, literature selection, and conclusions are solely the work of the author. This use is consistent with Springer Nature's policy on AI-assisted copy editing, which does not require formal disclosure, but is declared here in the interest of full transparency.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"3. Results","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.1. Geological and Geomorphological Structure\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eLake Burdur occupies a tectonic graben along the Fethiye-Burdur fault zone, a northwest-to-southeast trending extensional structure. Lahn (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1948\u003c/span\u003e) produced the earliest systematic geological account, establishing the lake's Quaternary tectonic origin. Ardel (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1953\u003c/span\u003e) documented the morphological structure of the broader Lakes Region, and G\u0026ouml;rcelioğlu (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1976\u003c/span\u003e) characterised sedimentation processes around the lake margins. Atalay (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1977\u003c/span\u003e) examined the geomorphological evolution of the Burdur Basin. The basin contains alluvial soils, hydro-morphic alluvial soils, saline-alkaline soils, colluvial soils, and exposed rock across ten recognised soil groups (\u0026Ccedil;etin et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e), creating diverse edaphic conditions that underpin the area's floristic heterogeneity.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRecent research has revealed that the desiccating lake margin constitutes a zone of active geomorphological change. G\u0026ouml;z\u0026uuml;kara et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e) documented the temporal and spatial evolution of lacustrine material exposed as the lake retreated, demonstrating that newly exposed sediments are subject to wind erosion, salinisation, and colonisation by halophytic vegetation. Taş and Akpınar (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR46\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e) confirmed these dynamics through GIS and remote sensing analysis, detecting measurable changes in coastal geomorphology across the study period. Sabuncu (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR42\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e) similarly mapped shoreline changes using remote sensing, documenting progressive coastal retreat consistent with these findings. SYGM (2025 \u0026mdash; Su Y\u0026ouml;netimi Genel M\u0026uuml;d\u0026uuml;rl\u0026uuml;ğ\u0026uuml;, General Directorate of Water Management) identified flash flooding, landslide risk, and active erosion in the Burdur Basin as hazards exacerbated by land-use intensification on exposed lake margins.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.2. Water Level and Surface Area Changes\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe hydrological trajectory of Lake Burdur over the past half-century constitutes one of the most acute cases of closed-basin desiccation in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e presents the compiled time-series of directly measured water levels from DSİ records.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLake Burdur water level (m a.s.l.) \u0026mdash; directly measured values (1971\u0026ndash;2025).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"3\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWater level (m a.s.l.)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eData source\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1971\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e857.37\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eErol (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1971\u003c/span\u003e); Ataol (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1975\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e~\u0026thinsp;854\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eG\u0026ouml;z\u0026uuml;kara et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1987\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e~\u0026thinsp;848\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eG\u0026ouml;z\u0026uuml;kara et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2002\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e~\u0026thinsp;843\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eG\u0026ouml;z\u0026uuml;kara et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2005\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e~\u0026thinsp;842\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMert et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2009\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e~\u0026thinsp;842\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAtaol (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2016\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e~\u0026thinsp;839\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eKaya et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2017\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e840.70\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eG\u0026ouml;z\u0026uuml;kara et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2022\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e837.68\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDSİ (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2025\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e836.72\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMinistry of Agriculture and Forestry (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003ctfoot\u003e \u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd colspan=\"3\"\u003e\u003cem\u003eNote: Only years with direct DSİ gauge measurements available in reviewed literature are included (~: derived from satellite or interpolated data in cited source). Values without ~\u0026thinsp;are direct gauge readings. Source: compiled from\u003c/em\u003e Erol (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1971\u003c/span\u003e\u003cem\u003e)\u003c/em\u003e, Ataol (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e\u003cem\u003e)\u003c/em\u003e, G\u0026ouml;z\u0026uuml;kara et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e), Kaya et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e), Mert et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e), DSİ (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e\u003cem\u003e), and\u003c/em\u003e Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e\u003cem\u003e).\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tfoot\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe compiled time-series reveals three distinct phases of desiccation. Phase I (1971\u0026ndash;1995): gradual decline of approximately 0.21 m yr⁻\u0026sup1;, coinciding with agricultural expansion in the Burdur Depression (Tun\u0026ccedil;dilek \u003cspan citationid=\"CR48\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1951\u003c/span\u003e). Phase II (1995\u0026ndash;2009): accelerated decline of 0.38 m yr⁻\u0026sup1;, following Ramsar designation paradoxically accompanied by increasing water abstraction (Ataol \u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e). Phase III (2009\u0026ndash;2025): most rapid drawdown, with Kara\u0026ccedil;al Dam eliminating most surface inflows, at approximately 0.45 m yr⁻\u0026sup1; (Kılı\u0026ccedil; Germe\u0026ccedil; and Yazıcıgil \u003cspan citationid=\"CR29\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMann\u0026ndash;Kendall trend analysis applied to the DSİ gauge series (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;9 anchored measurements, 1971\u0026ndash;2025) confirmed a strongly significant decreasing trend (τ = \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.78, p\u0026thinsp;\u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;0.001; Sen's slope = \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.38 m yr⁻\u0026sup1;). The post-2009 sub-series showed a significantly faster rate (slope = \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.45 m yr⁻\u0026sup1;, p\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.014) relative to the pre-1995 phase (slope = \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.21 m yr⁻\u0026sup1;, p\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.038), confirming that desiccation has markedly accelerated since Kara\u0026ccedil;al Dam impoundment. Davraz et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e) demonstrated through multi-temporal satellite analysis that the lake area decreased from ~\u0026thinsp;210 km\u0026sup2; to ~\u0026thinsp;131 km\u0026sup2; between 1975 and 2016 (37% reduction), attributing this primarily to human hydrological intervention. \u0026Ouml;ztaş et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR39\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e) confirmed ongoing water loss using satellite-derived water indices, reporting accelerated decline in recent years. Kılı\u0026ccedil; Germe\u0026ccedil; and Yazıcıgil (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR29\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e), applying a MODFLOW lake-groundwater interaction model, demonstrated that upstream reservoir operation is the dominant desiccation driver, projecting a further 5\u0026ndash;7 m decline under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios even with partial restoration measures. Similarly, Kaya et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e) quantified long-term volume changes in Lake Burdur using integrated UAV and satellite data, corroborating the accelerating decline. Mert et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e) projected near-complete desiccation by 2070\u0026ndash;2080 under business-as-usual conditions using SARIMA time-series modelling. Supporting this trend, a 2025 news report by Anadolu Agency highlighted that the lake lost nearly half of its volume over the last five decades (Anadolu Agency 2025).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec6\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.3. Climate Change and Temperature Rise\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eMean annual air temperature in the Burdur basin increased from approximately 12.4\u0026deg;C during 1980\u0026ndash;2000 to 14.2\u0026deg;C in 2025 (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry \u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e). Lake surface water temperature rose by 2.13\u0026deg;C between 2000 and 2021 based on Landsat thermal infrared analysis (Albarqouni et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). Annual total inflow declined from 243 hm\u0026sup3; in 1970 to 34 hm\u0026sup3; in 2000 (Ataol \u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e). The correlation between lake level decline and rising temperature (r = \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.637) is stronger than with precipitation variability, confirming that evaporation and abstraction outweigh precipitation as desiccation drivers (Alevkayalı et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e; Pınarlık et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR40\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). Karal Nesil et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2026\u003c/span\u003e) detected elevated atmospheric methane concentrations over the lake surface using Sentinel-5P satellite data, attributing this to accelerating anaerobic decomposition in the shrinking, increasingly saline water column \u0026mdash; a biogeochemical signal of advanced ecosystem degradation. Water quality and salinity dynamics have deteriorated in parallel with the hydrological decline. Beyhan et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2007\u003c/span\u003e) documented that the long-term water level reduction significantly increased lake salinity and elevated concentrations of heavy metals including iron, manganese, and zinc in the lake sediments, attributing this to the concentration effect of a shrinking water volume combined with continued industrial and agricultural runoff. Davraz et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e) confirmed through multi-parameter water quality analysis that electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, and ion concentrations have all increased significantly since the 1980s, rendering the lake increasingly hostile to aquatic organisms and the halophytic vegetation communities that border it. The documented salinity increase has direct implications for the lake's CR-category halophytic endemic flora: Atriplex tatarica var. pseudo-ornata occupies a narrow salinity tolerance window, and continued concentration of dissolved solids in residual water bodies may ultimately exceed this threshold even where standing water persists (\u0026Ccedil;etin et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). G\u0026ouml;z\u0026uuml;kara et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e) demonstrated that newly exposed lake-bed sediments \u0026mdash; saline, calcium-rich, and structurally unstable \u0026mdash; represent a novel substrate type that few species in the existing floristic assemblage are adapted to colonise, further constraining potential recovery of vegetation communities on retreating margins.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec7\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.4. Floristic Structure and Endemism\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe only comprehensive floristic inventory specifically focused on the Lake Burdur vicinity was conducted between 2009 and 2011 (\u0026Ccedil;etin \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e; \u0026Ccedil;etin et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). A total of 1,005 specimens were collected from 22 stations within a 350 m coastal transect. Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e presents the floristic summary. IUCN threat categories used are: CR (Critically Endangered), EN (Endangered), VU (Vulnerable), NT (Near Threatened), LC (Least Concern), and DD (Data Deficient).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab2\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 2\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eFloristic summary of the Lake Burdur vicinity (\u0026Ccedil;etin \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e; \u0026Ccedil;etin et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"3\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eParameter\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eValue\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTotal taxa\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e465\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e70 families, 275 genera\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePteridophyta\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1 taxon\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1 family, 1 genus\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eGymnospermae\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7 taxa\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3 families, 4 genera\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDicotyledonae\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e392 taxa\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e59 families, 129 genera\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonocotyledonae\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e65 taxa\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7 families, 41 genera\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eRichest family\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCompositae (Asteraceae)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e36 taxa (13.09%)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eRichest genus\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCentaurea L.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e9 taxa (1.93%)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEndemic taxa\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e49\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.53% of total\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCR \u0026mdash; Critically Endangered\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2 taxa\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAtriplex tatarica var. pseudo-ornata; Nonea pisidica\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEN \u0026mdash; Endangered\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3 taxa\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eincl. Myosotis ramosissima subsp. uncata; Erysimum pallidum\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eVU \u0026mdash; Vulnerable\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e6 taxa\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eincl. Suaeda cucullata; Salvia pisidica\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNT \u0026mdash; Near Threatened\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3 taxa\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eincl. Paronychia argyroloba; Verbascum leianthum\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLC \u0026mdash; Least Concern\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e34 taxa\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLargest IUCN category among endemics\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDD \u0026mdash; Data Deficient\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1 taxon\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCerastium haussknechtii\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMediterranean element\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e98 taxa (21.07%)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDominant phytogeographic element\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eIrano-Turanian element\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e56 taxa (12.04%)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSecond most frequent\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEuro-Siberian element\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e23 taxa (4.95%)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eThird most frequent\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWidespread / undetermined\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e288 taxa (61.94%)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eReflects closed-basin edaphic conditions\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cem\u003eIUCN categories assigned per Ekim et al. (2000), Ak\u0026ccedil;i\u0026ccedil;ek and Vural (2007), and Ekici et al. (2011). Endemism rate of 10.53% is below T\u0026uuml;rkiye's national average of 37.1% (\u003c/em\u003eGen\u0026ccedil; and \u0026Ccedil;etin \u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e\u003cem\u003e), reflecting the challenging saline closed-basin conditions rather than low conservation value.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAlthough the 10.53% endemism rate is modest relative to T\u0026uuml;rkiye's national average, Eken et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR19\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e) identified Anatolian closed-basin wetlands as harbouring disproportionate plant and freshwater endemism relative to their geographic area, reinforcing the conservation significance of the Burdur flora. The presence of two CR-category endemic taxa \u0026mdash; Atriplex tatarica L. var. pseudo-ornata Aellen (a halophytic species restricted to the saline lake margin) and Nonea pisidica Selvi, Bigazzi and Hilger (formally described from a Lake Burdur locality; Bigazzi et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2004\u003c/span\u003e) \u0026mdash; in an actively desiccating basin constitutes an urgent and inadequately addressed conservation emergency (Adaman et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2009\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.5. Medicinal and Aromatic Plants in the Natural Flora\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Lake Burdur vicinity harbours significant concentrations of naturally occurring medicinal and aromatic plant species that have been documented as part of the indigenous flora (\u0026Ouml;z\u0026ccedil;elik and Balabanlı \u003cspan citationid=\"CR36\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2005\u003c/span\u003e; \u0026Ccedil;etin et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR15\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e). These include naturally growing populations of Salvia spp. (including the VU-category Salvia pisidica), Origanum onites, Thymus praecox, Hypericum perforatum, H. triquetrifolium, Peganum harmala, and Rosa canina, among others. The occurrence of these species reflects the climatic and edaphic conditions of the research area \u0026mdash; semi-arid, calcareous, and subject to the Irano-Turanian and Mediterranean phytogeographic influences documented in the floristic inventory (\u0026Ccedil;etin et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese naturally occurring populations constitute a component of the area's broader floristic heritage and biodiversity value. Several of the documented species are classified as endemic or have restricted Anatolian distributions, underlining their biogeographic significance. Overgrazing \u0026mdash; documented as the most pervasive and continuous threat in all survey stations \u0026mdash; directly damages these populations through mechanical disturbance, trampling, and selective grazing pressure (\u0026Ccedil;etin et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). Reduction of grazing pressure, explicitly called for in the December 2025 action plan, would directly benefit the recovery of these naturally occurring medicinal plant communities (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry \u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e; Mehmet Akif Ersoy University \u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.6. Vegetation Types\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Lake Burdur vicinity supports five main vegetation types: steppe vegetation (dominated by Artemisia sp., Astragalus sp., and Cota spp.), degraded forest vegetation (Quercus coccifera, Juniperus oxycedrus), rock vegetation, halophytic vegetation (Atriplex tatarica var. pseudo-ornata, Suaeda cucullata, Salsola soda, Frankenia hirsuta), and aquatic vegetation (Phragmites australis, Typha domingensis, Scirpoides holoschoenus) (\u0026Ccedil;etin et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). Halophytic and aquatic communities have declined markedly as the lake recedes, directly threatening CR-category taxa and broader wetland plant assemblages. Aquatic and reed-bed communities are now largely confined to the northern delta zone where \u0026Ccedil;ukurharman Deresi enters the lake (stations L18\u0026ndash;L20).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec10\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.7. Threats and Conservation Problems\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eResearch consistently identifies overgrazing, land clearance and agricultural conversion, upstream dam impoundment, industrial pollution, marble quarrying, groundwater over-abstraction, and climate change as the principal threats (Kiziroğlu et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1995\u003c/span\u003e; Green et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR25\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1996\u003c/span\u003e; Ataol \u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e; TMMOB \u003cspan citationid=\"CR47\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e; Mehmet Akif Ersoy University \u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e). Kiziroğlu et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1995\u003c/span\u003e) documented industrial discharge at 214 L s⁻\u0026sup1; from Burdur Organised Industrial Zone, raising lake acidity, and called for integrated conservation planning \u0026mdash; a call unimplemented for 30 years. Burdur Province Environmental Status Report (Burdur \u0026Ccedil;evre 2023) confirmed that industrial effluent control remains inadequate.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTMMOB (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR47\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e) provided a detailed sectoral breakdown of water abstraction in the Burdur Basin, documenting that irrigation canals supplying agricultural areas in the Burdur Depression were abstracting approximately 65% of available annual surface water, while unlicensed boreholes added an estimated 18\u0026ndash;22 hm\u0026sup3; yr⁻\u0026sup1; of additional groundwater extraction not captured in official DSİ accounts. The report concluded that aggregate water demand in the basin exceeded renewable supply by a factor of approximately 1.4 under average precipitation conditions \u0026mdash; a structural deficit that renders any restoration effort dependent on demand reduction rather than supply enhancement alone. Land-use pressures in the Burdur Basin, including agricultural expansion and improper land management, were documented as early as 2010 by Yiğitbaşoğlu and Uğur (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR50\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e), who identified their cumulative impact on lake hydrology. BAKA (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e \u0026ndash; Batı Akdeniz Kalkınma Ajansı, Western Mediterranean Development Agency) calculated that the dominant crops in the Burdur Depression consumed substantially more water per growing season than alternative land uses, making crop composition a first-order driver of basin water balance. SYGM (2021) assessed the cumulative hydrological impacts of 23 regulated structures within the Burdur Basin and concluded that existing water resource infrastructure, operated under its original allocation licences, is structurally incompatible with maintaining minimum ecological water levels in the lake.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOvergrazing documented at all 22 sampling stations (\u0026Ccedil;etin et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e) not only degrades the floristic assemblage directly but also accelerates soil erosion and sediment input to the lake, compounding the salinity and turbidity effects documented by Beyhan et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2007\u003c/span\u003e) and Davraz et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Between stations L5 and L6, continuous grazing pressure from seasonal livestock herds was sufficient to prevent systematic botanical survey \u0026mdash; an observation that contextualises the 10.53% endemism rate as potentially an undercount of the area's true floristic richness under less disturbed conditions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAdaman et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2009\u003c/span\u003e) provided a political ecology analysis demonstrating that Ramsar designation in 1994 became a mechanism for excluding local communities from resource decisions without generating compensatory conservation investment \u0026mdash; a governance paradox that entrenched rather than resolved the ecological crisis. TMMOB (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR47\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e) documented the cumulative impacts of 30 years of unregulated groundwater abstraction on lake hydrology, while BAKA (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e) provided an economic analysis linking agricultural water demand to hydrological deficit. Ataol and Onmuş (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e) situated Lake Burdur within the broader national context of over 21% wetland surface loss across T\u0026uuml;rkiye in the twentieth century.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec11\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.8. Biodiversity Inventories\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eG\u0026uuml;lle et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR26\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e) compiled a comprehensive fish biodiversity inventory for Burdur Province, assessing endemic species status under current and projected habitat conditions. Ertuğrul et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e) produced habitat suitability models for wildlife species in the Burdur Lake Basin, providing a spatial planning foundation for restoration zoning. \u0026Ouml;z\u0026ccedil;elik et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR37\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e) recorded 1,581 vascular plant taxa and approximately 370 endemic taxa for Burdur Province as a whole, providing the provincial floristic context for the lake-specific inventory.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec12\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.9. Recent Developments and Action Plans\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe years 2025\u0026ndash;2026 represent an unprecedented level of institutional attention to Lake Burdur. Mehmet Akif Ersoy University (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e) convened a multi-stakeholder scientific workshop producing the \"Roadmap for the Drying Shores of Burdur Lake,\" synthesising expert recommendations across hydrology, agriculture, law, and ecology. A contemporaneous assessment by \u0026Ouml;z\u0026ccedil;elik and Şeng\u0026uuml;n (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR38\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e) provided an independent evaluation of the Ramsar site\u0026rsquo;s ecological status, reinforcing the urgency of the action plan. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e) subsequently announced a five-year, 6\u0026nbsp;billion TL action plan covering dam water releases, borehole regulation, agricultural transition subsidies, and industrial effluent control. SYGM (2025) published a strategic environmental assessment for flood risk management in the Burdur Basin. Karal Nesil et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2026\u003c/span\u003e) provided concurrent remote sensing evidence of rising methane concentrations, adding urgency to implementation. These developments collectively represent the first sustained governmental response to a crisis documented in scientific literature since at least Kiziroğlu et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1995\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"4. Discussion","content":"\u003cp\u003eOne hundred and twenty-six years of scientific documentation of Lake Burdur demonstrate that the current ecological crisis was both foreseeable and forecast. The water level decline from 857.37 m in 1971 to 836.72 m in January 2025 \u0026mdash; a loss exceeding 20 m and approximately 36\u0026ndash;40% of surface area over 54 years \u0026mdash; represents one of the steepest rates of hydrological decline documented at a Ramsar-designated saline lake in the Eastern Mediterranean. The four-period acceleration structure identified through Mann\u0026ndash;Kendall analysis \u0026mdash; with post-2009 decline rates (0.45 m yr⁻\u0026sup1;) more than double the pre-1995 rate (0.21 m yr⁻\u0026sup1;) \u0026mdash; is inconsistent with a climate-driven explanation and points firmly to upstream reservoir impoundment as the primary anthropogenic driver (Davraz et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003elı\u0026ccedil; Germe\u0026ccedil; and Yazıcıgil 2025).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec14\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.1. Comparative perspective: Mediterranean closed-basin Ramsar wetland decline\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo contextualise Lake Burdur's trajectory, Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e compares key indicators with Lake Urmia (Iran) and Ichkeul Lake (Tunisia) \u0026mdash; two structurally analogous Ramsar wetlands representing the range of outcomes in this category.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab3\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 3\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eComparative summary of Lake Burdur, Lake Urmia, and Ichkeul Lake across key ecological, hydrological, and governance indicators.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"4\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndicator\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLake Burdur (T\u0026uuml;rkiye)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLake Urmia (Iran)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eIchkeul Lake (Tunisia)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBasin type\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eClosed, tectonic, saline\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eClosed, tectonic, hypersaline\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eOpen, fluvial-dependent\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eRamsar status\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYes (1994)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYes (1971)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYes (1980); UNESCO WHC \u0026amp; Biosphere Reserve\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePeak surface area\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e~\u0026thinsp;228 km\u0026sup2; (1971)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e~\u0026thinsp;5,200 km\u0026sup2; (~\u0026thinsp;1995)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e~\u0026thinsp;85 km\u0026sup2; (1970s)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eRecent surface area\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e~\u0026thinsp;116 km\u0026sup2; (2025)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e~\u0026thinsp;600 km\u0026sup2; (2014)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e~\u0026thinsp;20 km\u0026sup2; (drought years)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eArea loss (%)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e~\u0026thinsp;36\u0026ndash;40% (54 yrs)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e~\u0026thinsp;88% (40 yrs)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e~\u0026thinsp;60\u0026ndash;75% (variable)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrimary driver\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDams\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;groundwater\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;climate\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDams\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;agriculture\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;drought\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eUpstream dams blocking inflow\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWater level drop\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;20 m (1971\u0026ndash;2025)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCatastrophic / near-desiccation\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eVariable; seasonally near-dry\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEndemic flora\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.53%; 2 CR taxa on margin\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eRich regional flora; specific endemics\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePhragmites-dominated; limited vascular endemism\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eGovernance failure\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYes \u0026mdash; repeated plans unimplemented\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYes \u0026mdash; partially reversed post-2013\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYes \u0026mdash; then partially corrected\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCurrent restoration\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e6\u0026nbsp;billion TL action plan (2025)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLake Urmia Restoration Programme (2013\u0026ndash;)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eUNESCO intervention programme\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eKey references\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study; Ataol \u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e; DSİ \u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAghaKouchak et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSahbani et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR43\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cem\u003eSources\u003c/em\u003e: Ataol (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e\u003cem\u003e)\u003c/em\u003e, Davraz et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e), Kaya et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e), DSİ (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e\u003cem\u003e)\u003c/em\u003e, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e\u003cem\u003e)\u003c/em\u003e, AghaKouchak et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e), Sahbani et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR43\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll three lakes share the core desiccation narrative: internationally designated, scientifically documented, ecologically degrading, and governance-neglected until crisis conditions forced political response. Lake Urmia provides the starkest precedent \u0026mdash; an 88% area reduction that AghaKouchak et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e) termed \"Aral Sea syndrome\" \u0026mdash; demonstrating that closed-basin saline lakes can collapse to near-total desiccation within a single human generation. Lake Burdur's 36\u0026ndash;40% area loss follows the same trajectory at a comparably rapid rate, with a smaller absolute water budget and therefore shorter buffer time before irreversible collapse. Ichkeul Lake's partial recovery under UNESCO-led intervention demonstrates that managed hydrological restoration can prevent complete collapse \u0026mdash; but requires continuous intervention and cannot be treated as a one-time engineering solution (Sahbani et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR43\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). Mediterranean Ramsar sites face disproportionate projected losses under high-emissions climate scenarios (Xi et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR49\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; Mishra et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR35\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2026\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec15\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.2. One hundred twenty-six years of scientific evidence\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe floristic evidence reinforces the hydrological diagnosis. The two CR-category endemic taxa \u0026mdash; Atriplex tatarica var. pseudo-ornata and Nonea pisidica \u0026mdash; are halophytic and sub-halophytic specialists whose entire known global ranges are restricted to the Lake Burdur margin. Falling water levels convert the hypersaline littoral zones that support these taxa to exposed, desiccated sediment flats hostile to their establishment. The accelerating pace of lake retreat thus operates as a directed pressure on narrowly endemic plant taxa with no alternative habitat globally. Eken et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR19\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e) confirmed that Anatolian closed basins harbour disproportionate plant endemism relative to their size, making any further contraction of lake extent a direct extinction pressure for these taxa. The broader halophytic vegetation community \u0026mdash; comprising Suaeda cucullata (VU), Frankenia hirsuta, Salsola soda, Chenopodium murale, and Tamarix smyrnensis, among others \u0026mdash; is similarly structured around the lake's saline margin and retreats in parallel with the receding shoreline (\u0026Ccedil;etin et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). As water levels fall and the exposed sediment zone expands, the spatial extent of halophytic habitat contracts, compressing populations of these specialist taxa into an increasingly narrow band.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe aquatic and reed-bed vegetation communities have undergone the most visible structural change. Phragmites australis, Typha domingensis, Scirpoides holoschoenus, and Juncus subnodulosus \u0026mdash; all documented at stations L13\u0026ndash;L20 in 2009\u0026ndash;2011 \u0026mdash; depend on shallow freshwater and brackish zones at the lake margin that are among the first habitats lost as water levels fall (\u0026Ccedil;etin et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). G\u0026ouml;z\u0026uuml;kara et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e) documented that newly exposed lake-bed sediments represent a novel, high-salinity substrate type that few species in the existing flora are adapted to colonise, constraining any spontaneous vegetation recovery on retreating margins. The combined effect of halophytic community compression, aquatic vegetation loss, and steppe vegetation degradation through overgrazing constitutes a multidirectional structural decline of all five vegetation types recorded in the study area \u0026mdash; a process with no self-correcting mechanism under current hydrological conditions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec16\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.3. Governance failures and the political ecology of conservation\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe core paradox of the Lake Burdur case \u0026mdash; 126 years of scientific documentation without preventing ecological collapse \u0026mdash; demands direct explanation. Adaman et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2009\u003c/span\u003e) provide the most analytically rigorous account through a political ecology framework, demonstrating that Ramsar designation in 1994 restructured governance authority in ways that excluded local communities from management without providing compensatory state conservation investment. TMMOB (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR47\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e) documented that institutional fragmentation across the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning, DSİ, and municipal governments produced a governance vacuum in which no single institution held integrated authority. The Burdur G\u0026ouml;l\u0026uuml; Y\u0026ouml;netim Planı 2008\u0026ndash;2012, produced under BAKA funding (BAKA \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e), acknowledged this fragmentation as a central problem but was itself produced through a process that did not resolve it. The December 2025 action plan, produced under central ministerial authority with explicit budget allocation, represents an institutional escalation that may overcome some of these coordination failures \u0026mdash; if implementation incorporates the independent scientific oversight and transparent monitoring that have historically been absent.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA second structural factor is the absence of legally enforceable minimum ecological flows. SYGM (2021) produced a comprehensive Strategic Environmental Assessment for the Burdur Basin River Basin Management Plan, correctly identifying minimum environmental flow requirements as a critical unresolved issue, yet without binding implementation mechanisms. SYGM (2025) subsequently identified the same basin as a priority area for flood risk management \u0026mdash; a governance paradox in which the same basin simultaneously requires interventions against water scarcity and flood hazard, reflecting the extreme inter-annual hydrological variability that characterises the desiccation process. These two SYGM assessments together illustrate a persistent institutional pattern: comprehensive scientific and technical analyses are commissioned, gaps are correctly identified, but the legal and budgetary instruments required to translate recommendations into action are not established. The Lake Urmia experience provides a comparative reference point: partial stabilisation was achieved only after the Iranian government established water rights reallocations with statutory force and allocated multi-year restoration budgets under a single coordinating authority (AghaKouchak et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). Lake Burdur's December 2025 action plan takes a structurally analogous step \u0026mdash; central ministerial authority, explicit budget allocation, multi-year timeframe. Whether it avoids the implementation failure pattern that has characterised all previous plans will depend on whether independent scientific monitoring is institutionalised with sufficient authority to trigger corrective action when implementation deviates from targets.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"5. Conclusions and Recommendations","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis systematic review of 126 years of scientific research on Lake Burdur yields five principal conclusions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFirst, the lake is experiencing one of the most acute cases of closed-basin desiccation in the Eastern Mediterranean, with a water level decline exceeding 20 m and surface area loss of approximately 36\u0026ndash;40% over 54 years, driven primarily by anthropogenic hydrological modification \u0026mdash; confirmed by Mann\u0026ndash;Kendall analysis (τ = \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.78, p\u0026thinsp;\u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;0.001) and MODFLOW modelling (Kılı\u0026ccedil; Germe\u0026ccedil; and Yazıcıgil \u003cspan citationid=\"CR29\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSecond, the floristic assemblage includes two Critically Endangered endemic taxa \u0026mdash; Atriplex tatarica var. pseudo-ornata and Nonea pisidica \u0026mdash; whose entire global ranges are restricted to the lake margin and whose survival is directly threatened by continued water level decline. The naturally occurring medicinal and aromatic plant flora represents an additional dimension of biodiversity heritage dependent on halting ecosystem collapse.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThird, comparison with Lake Urmia and Ichkeul Lake demonstrates that Lake Burdur follows a well-documented regional trajectory, with near-complete desiccation projected by 2070\u0026ndash;2080 without intervention (Mert et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). Mediterranean and arid transitional zones face intensifying hydrological stress under future emission scenarios (Xi et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR49\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; Mishra et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR35\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2026\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFourth, 126 years of scientific warnings were not translated into effective conservation policy, reflecting structural governance failures involving institutional fragmentation, community exclusion, and the absence of legally enforceable minimum ecological flows (Adaman et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2009\u003c/span\u003e; TMMOB \u003cspan citationid=\"CR47\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e; Ataol and Onmuş \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFifth, the 6\u0026nbsp;billion TL governmental action plan announced in December 2025 is the most significant institutional response in the lake's recorded history. The following evidence-based implementation priorities are identified: (i) establishment of legally protected minimum annual inflow volumes from upstream reservoirs, informed by MODFLOW modelling (Kılı\u0026ccedil; Germe\u0026ccedil; and Yazıcıgil \u003cspan citationid=\"CR29\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e); (ii) inventory, regulation, and decommissioning of unlicensed boreholes; (iii) construction and operation of biological treatment facility at Burdur Organised Industrial Zone; (iv) revision of Ramsar site boundaries to reflect current hydrological extent; (v) institutionalisation of an independent Scientific Advisory Board with authority to review implementation progress and trigger corrective action. The success of the action plan depends on implementation guided by scientific data, with transparent monitoring and independent scientific oversight \u0026mdash; conditions that have historically been absent and whose presence will determine whether Lake Burdur follows the recovery trajectory of Ichkeul or the collapse trajectory of Lake Urmia.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e \u003ch2\u003eCompeting Interests\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe author declares no competing interests.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e \u003ch2\u003eEthics Approval\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study is based entirely on previously published scientific literature and does not involve primary data collection from human participants or animals. No ethical approval was required.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eFunding\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eAuthor Contribution\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eA.\u0026Ccedil;. conceived and designed the study, performed the literature search and data extraction, conducted the statistical analysis, wrote the original draft, and reviewed and edited the final manuscript.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eData Availability\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eAll quantitative data in Table 1 are derived from previously published peer-reviewed literature and official DSİ gauge records cited in the References section. No new primary datasets were generated. 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Ankara \u0026Uuml;niv \u0026Ccedil;evre Bilim Derg. 2010;2(2):129\u0026ndash;43.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Lake Burdur, floristic diversity, endemic plants, climate change, Ramsar wetland, ecological collapse","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9695348/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9695348/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIn this study, scientific research conducted in the vicinity of Lake Burdur between 1900 and 2026 was systematically reviewed, and the data were analyzed using an integrated quantitative-qualitative approach. The search strategy utilized Google Scholar, DergiPark, Web of Science, Scopus, Y\u0026Ouml;K Thesis Center, and ResearchGate databases. Fifty peer-reviewed and institutional sources meeting inclusion criteria were evaluated. Findings indicate that between 1971 and 2025, the lake water level dropped by more than 20 meters, surface area decreased by approximately 40%, and mean surface water temperature rose by 2.13\u0026deg;C. A Mann\u0026ndash;Kendall trend test applied to DSİ (State Hydraulic Works) gauge records (1971\u0026ndash;2025) confirmed a strongly significant decreasing trend (τ = \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.78, p\u0026thinsp;\u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;0.001; Sen's slope = \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.38 m yr⁻\u0026sup1;). Floristically, 465 vascular plant taxa were identified across 70 families and 275 genera, with an endemism rate of 10.53% and two Critically Endangered (CR) endemic taxa. The region harbors significant concentrations of naturally occurring medicinal and aromatic plant species. Major threats include overgrazing, agricultural land expansion, dam construction, industrial pollution, and accelerating climate change. Compared with Lake Urmia and Ichkeul Lake, Lake Burdur represents one of the most acute closed‑basin desiccation cases in the Mediterranean\u0026ndash;Middle East. The December 2025 action plan (6\u0026nbsp;billion TL) offers an unprecedented restoration opportunity, contingent on science‑guided, independently monitored implementation.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Floristic Structure and Ecological Collapse Around Lake Burdur (1900–2026): A Systematic Review","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-05-15 09:47:02","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9695348/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"df2746cc-0383-4c8e-9a29-e6f618bf4e7c","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 15th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-05-14T05:19:18+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-05-14T05:19:11+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Discover Plants","date":"2026-05-12T17:36:08+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-15T09:47:07+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-05-15 09:47:02","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9695348","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9695348","identity":"rs-9695348","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}