Orographic amplification of El Niño teleconnections on winter precipitation across western North America

Orographic amplification of El Niño teleconnections on winter precipitation across western North America | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Orographic amplification of El Niño teleconnections on winter precipitation across western North America James Stagge, Max Torbenson, Kyungmin Sung, Benjamin Phillips, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2222190/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 04 Dec, 2023 Read the published version in Nature Water → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection pattern drives interannual changes in winter precipitation across western North America, but these effects are entangled with orographic effects, caused by mountainous terrain, and long-term climate trends. This study employs a novel, spatially distributed non-linear spline model to isolate ENSO impacts from these other factors. We find that topography exaggerates the underlying effect of ENSO, driving larger precipitation changes at high elevations along western slopes. Further, we detected a north-south precipitation dipole, which exhibited incremental ENSO effects in the southern region, but more binary effects in the north. Spatial extents for positive and negative ENSO phases also varied based on topography. Confirmation of precipitation lapse rates and multi-decadal precipitation trends provides greater confidence in disentangling the ENSO signal. Ultimately, these results provide greater nuance regarding ENSO effects on winter precipitation, which is critical for domestic water supplies, ecological flows, and agriculture. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation precipitation orographic climate change Genalized Additive Model Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files sup1elevation.pdf sup2mei.pdf sup3ensocombined.pdf supgaugeavail.pdf sup5regionenso.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 04 Dec, 2023 Read the published version in Nature Water → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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