An Integrated Risk Sciences Framework for Food Security in Nigeria: Interplay of Risk Assessment, Mitigation Strategies, and Behavioral Factors

This study proposes an integrated risk sciences framework for addressing food security challenges in Nigeria, a nation grappling with persistent threats from climate change, internal conflicts, and economic volatility. We examine the interplay between three core variables: the identification and assessment of systemic food risks, the development of effective mitigation mechanisms and strategies, and the influence of behavioral and decision-making factors among key stakeholders. Employing a mixed-methods research design, the study combines quantitative risk modeling with qualitative case studies of smallholder farmers and government policymakers across three geopolitical zones (North Central, South West, and South East). Data were collected from 1,856 farmers through structured surveys, 64 stakeholder interviews, and 10 years of historical risk indicators. The quantitative analysis reveals that a multi-dimensional risk model explains 70.7% of variance in food security outcomes, with crop yield index (β = 0.489) and food price inflation (β = -0.367) as primary determinants. Qualitative findings expose critical disconnects between policy design and grassroots implementation, with institutional trust emerging as a fundamental prerequisite for effective risk management. Behavioral analysis confirms that financial literacy (β = 0.387) and technology readiness (β = 0.456) are key predictors of risk management adoption, varying significantly across regions. The study demonstrates that sustainable food security requires simultaneous investment in technical solutions, institutional capacity, and behavioral change mechanisms. Findings provide actionable insights for policymakers, agricultural organizations, and development partners, contributing to a more nuanced understanding of food security in developing economies