not-yet-known not-yet-known A new assessment framework to predict future multi-scenario spatio-temporal variation of the ecological-social-economic coupling coordination degree: A case study in the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area

To achieve high-quality development in metropolitan area. It was essential to explore the mutual influences and constraints between ecological environment protection and social and economic development, the degree of coordination and the evolutionary characteristics of the coupling among these three elements. Therefore, we proposed a new assessment framework based on various scenarios, which integrates the Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs Comprehensive Assessment (InVEST) model, Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, Grey GM(1,1) model, coupled coordination model, and geographic detector. We used the Invest model and the coupling coordination degree model to calculate how well the ecological, social, and economic systems work together in the study region from 2010 to 2020. Combined with PLUS and grey GM (1,1) models, the coupling coordination degree of the complex system in 2035 was predicted. At the same time, a geographic tool was used to assess how much the influencing factors interact with each other. The results showed that: (1) From 2010 to 2035, the areas with high value on the Comprehensive index for Ecosystem Services (CES) in the study region were all located in the southwestern and northern parts. The CES in the study region kept going down between 2010 and 2020. (2) From 2010 to 2020, the coupling coordination degree of the composite system in the study region continued to grow, but the overall value was still low. There was a trend of the low-value area getting closer to the high-value area, and the similarity increased. By 2035, the coupling coordination degrees under all scenarios will have improved, among which the ecological protection scenario will increase the most. (3) The geodetector analysis showed that social factors and economic factors have the greatest influence on the coupling and coordination degree, and the factor with the greatest impact was the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries Supplementary Material File (manuscript.docx) - Download - 1.49 MB Information & Authors Information Version history Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License.

Authors Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 229views 123downloads Citations Download citation Xuanxuan Bu, Genming Li, Jiwei Li, et al. not-yet-known not-yet-known A new assessment framework to predict future multi-scenario spatio-temporal variation of the ecological-social-economic coupling coordination degree: A case study in the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area. Authorea. 27 May 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174831488.86906271/v1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174831488.86906271/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu.