Climate-driven inequalities in dengue transmission between rural and urban populations in western India

Climate-driven inequalities in dengue transmission between rural and urban populations in western India | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Climate-driven inequalities in dengue transmission between rural and urban populations in western India Avik Kumar Sam, Akshay Kumar, Ipsita Pal Bhowmick, Kalpana Baruah, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9340174/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Dengue incidence in India is rising and expanding across diverse geographical terrains and climatic zones, with transmission increasingly reported beyond urban centres into peri-urban and rural regions. Methods Using a 12-year longitudinal data from Pune district in India, we investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue across rural and urban regions and developed a climate integrated- and artificial intelligence (AI)–driven framework to predict current and future dengue risk under climate change scenarios till 2100s. The relative environmental suitability for dengue transmission at 1 km 2 resolution is also estimated using Bayesian hierarchical models. Results Between 2012 and 2023, the mean prevalence in urban Pune (181 cases per 10 million) was ~ 3.5-fold higher than in rural areas, with peak transmission observed in October in both settings. Males reported a 1.5 times higher prevalence than females, with maximum burden reported among individuals aged 10–50 years. Spatial analyses identified persistent transmission hotspots that periodically intensified during monsoon/post-monsoon season. The AI models identified the role of 2-month lagged temperature in urban areas and no delayed-temperature effect in rural areas. Under the SSP5 scenario, the projected cumulative burden in rural Pune between 2024–2100 reaches 194,219 cases, representing ~ 15% of the projected urban burden. Bayesian analyses indicate that largest number of neighbourhoods (n = 427) with suitability > 8.75% occurred in September. Conclusion Collectively, these findings reveal distinct urban–rural climatic sensitivities and demonstrate the utility of AI-enabled predictive modelling for early warning, preparedness and targeted intervention to mitigate dengue transmission under changing climate conditions. Infectious Diseases Climate Analysis and Modeling Epidemiology Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Dengue Early Warning Artificial Intelligence Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Environmental suitability Delayed Impact Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files DenguePuneSupplementary.docx Supplementary Material Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9340174","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":618651412,"identity":"d409761e-e313-4f91-9b27-d8cc77f7ed54","order_by":0,"name":"Avik Kumar Sam","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA0ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACxmYwxc/M2MAMZjETq0WymbGxmUgtUCUGB2CaCQH+GcnNBgx/7KKNjzO3Py5gsJNnYOc9gFeLxI3E5gTGtuTcbYeBDpvBkGzYwMyXgN+aMwebDwA9DtHCw8CcwMDMY4BXhzxIC8Of+tzNzWAt9YS1GBxvbE5gYDucu4EZrOUwYS2GQC0GiW3Hc2cAHTZ7hsFxwzZCWuQOsz+W+PCnOre///iDzwUV1fL8/GfwawGDBIQ7GRjYCKsfBaNgFIyCUUAIAAAYPT8Co1mZfAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-8916-4390","institution":"Indian Institute of Technology Bombay","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Avik","middleName":"Kumar","lastName":"Sam","suffix":""},{"id":618651413,"identity":"24f5fda0-60a2-46ee-9e49-8bef3c022d85","order_by":1,"name":"Akshay Kumar","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Indian Institute of Technology Bombay","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Akshay","middleName":"","lastName":"Kumar","suffix":""},{"id":618651414,"identity":"b0f72b1a-cd6d-4190-bfe0-7c7093863419","order_by":2,"name":"Ipsita Pal Bhowmick","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Indian Council of Medical Research - Regional Medical Research Centre, NE, Dibrugarh, India","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ipsita","middleName":"Pal","lastName":"Bhowmick","suffix":""},{"id":618651415,"identity":"c2136a6d-92be-4fff-8198-ea96c0b0893c","order_by":3,"name":"Kalpana Baruah","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Center for Vector Borne Disease Control, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kalpana","middleName":"","lastName":"Baruah","suffix":""},{"id":618651416,"identity":"77db2440-4518-473a-9dfc-b94bb6aaa170","order_by":4,"name":"Harish C. Phuleria","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA0UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCQbGAyCSn5mxgRkswkxYCwNYi2QzY2MzKVoYGAwOMDA2E+Uuc+kegwMf91jIGx9nbn9cwGAnz8DOewCvFss5ZwwOzngmYbjtMNBhMxiSDRuY+RLwajG4kWNwmOeABCNYCw8DcwIDM48BYS1/DkjYb24Ga6knUgvDAYnEDcxgLYcJa7GckVZwsOeARPIMoMNmzzA4bthGSIu5RPLGBz8O1Nn29x9/8Lmgolqen/8MAYdhcNnwqsfUMgpGwSgYBaMACwAATR9BIltXuRsAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5801-0015","institution":"[email protected]","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Harish","middleName":"C.","lastName":"Phuleria","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-07 06:07:53","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9340174/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9340174/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106403680,"identity":"01ad7075-f5e1-47dd-9102-7baac4b184ea","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-08 09:14:46","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1949375,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"DenguePuneMSFeb26AS.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9340174/v1_covered_6a28a93a-a703-4c5f-9f94-0f52328d2043.pdf"},{"id":106385184,"identity":"64e1eb6a-2f61-4c48-a630-6346cb7df30e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-08 06:07:01","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":10937797,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSupplementary Material\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"DenguePuneSupplementary.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9340174/v1/4f166e081281d946e87a8e82.docx"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eClimate-driven inequalities in dengue transmission between rural and urban populations in western India\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Indian Institute of Technology Bombay","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Dengue Early Warning, Artificial Intelligence, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Environmental suitability, Delayed Impact","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9340174/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9340174/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eBackground\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eDengue incidence in India is rising and expanding across diverse geographical terrains and climatic zones, with transmission increasingly reported beyond urban centres into peri-urban and rural regions.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethods\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsing a 12-year longitudinal data from Pune district in India, we investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue across rural and urban regions and developed a climate integrated- and artificial intelligence (AI)\u0026ndash;driven framework to predict current and future dengue risk under climate change scenarios till 2100s. The relative environmental suitability for dengue transmission at 1 km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e resolution is also estimated using Bayesian hierarchical models.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eBetween 2012 and 2023, the mean prevalence in urban Pune (181 cases per 10\u0026nbsp;million) was ~\u0026thinsp;3.5-fold higher than in rural areas, with peak transmission observed in October in both settings. Males reported a 1.5 times higher prevalence than females, with maximum burden reported among individuals aged 10\u0026ndash;50 years. Spatial analyses identified persistent transmission hotspots that periodically intensified during monsoon/post-monsoon season. The AI models identified the role of 2-month lagged temperature in urban areas and no delayed-temperature effect in rural areas. Under the SSP5 scenario, the projected cumulative burden in rural Pune between 2024\u0026ndash;2100 reaches 194,219 cases, representing\u0026thinsp;~\u0026thinsp;15% of the projected urban burden. Bayesian analyses indicate that largest number of neighbourhoods (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;427) with suitability\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;8.75% occurred in September.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusion\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eCollectively, these findings reveal distinct urban\u0026ndash;rural climatic sensitivities and demonstrate the utility of AI-enabled predictive modelling for early warning, preparedness and targeted intervention to mitigate dengue transmission under changing climate conditions.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Climate-driven inequalities in dengue transmission between rural and urban populations in western India","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-08 06:06:50","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9340174/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"1bb0383e-1d91-492d-9f5c-470581ca5a2b","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 8th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":65826193,"name":"Infectious Diseases"},{"id":65826194,"name":"Climate Analysis and Modeling"},{"id":65826195,"name":"Epidemiology"},{"id":65826196,"name":"Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-08T06:06:50+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-08 06:06:50","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9340174","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9340174","identity":"rs-9340174","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}