Modelling methodology for the analysis of local government debt compliance

Modelling methodology for the analysis of local government debt compliance | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Modelling methodology for the analysis of local government debt compliance Mário A. Antão, Paula Santos, Duarte Trigueiros This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4024620/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract To mitigate the difficulty of analysing local government debt, this article uses a methodology that makes statistical models more suitable for use with financial data, improving their reliability and ease of construction. The article illustrates the application of this methodology by identifying the factors that explain the unintelligible variation in Portuguese local government debt, showing how to identify which local governments have the most unpredictable variation in debt, and how to construct reliable and easy-to-use municipal Z-scores. JEL Classification: C18, C21, C51, C52, C58, H68, H74, M48 Hidden Debt Local Government Debt Local Government Debt Limit Local Government Z-Score Financial Ratio Financial Ratio Selection Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4024620","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":277345943,"identity":"90dd6b94-2c29-4885-b03b-55a197abe412","order_by":0,"name":"Mário A. Antão","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universidade Lusíada, COMEGI","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mário","middleName":"A.","lastName":"Antão","suffix":""},{"id":277345945,"identity":"5e5168fe-16e2-4ae6-9a6a-bf364b3c8fb5","order_by":1,"name":"Paula Santos","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"ISCAL, Lisbon Polytechnic Institute. COMEGI","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Paula","middleName":"","lastName":"Santos","suffix":""},{"id":277345947,"identity":"aec79357-e35e-42a7-ae2a-3c9ab9f9fbf6","order_by":2,"name":"Duarte Trigueiros","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"ISCTE, University Institute of Lisbon, ISTAR","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Duarte","middleName":"","lastName":"Trigueiros","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-03-07 13:15:30","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4024620/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4024620/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":53600344,"identity":"4713cf32-8e20-4983-939d-571b589c3920","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-03-28 01:38:01","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":349522,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscriptwithtitlepageITPF.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4024620/v1_covered_632cd726-8d8a-4d6b-9952-2e9c899b1828.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Modelling methodology for the analysis of local government debt compliance","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Hidden Debt, Local Government Debt, Local Government Debt Limit, Local Government Z-Score, Financial Ratio, Financial Ratio Selection","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4024620/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4024620/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eTo mitigate the difficulty of analysing local government debt, this article uses a methodology that makes statistical models more suitable for use with financial data, improving their reliability and ease of construction. The article illustrates the application of this methodology by identifying the factors that explain the unintelligible variation in Portuguese local government debt, showing how to identify which local governments have the most unpredictable variation in debt, and how to construct reliable and easy-to-use municipal Z-scores.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eJEL Classification:\u003c/strong\u003e C18, C21, C51, C52, C58, H68, H74, M48\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Modelling methodology for the analysis of local government debt compliance","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-03-12 18:23:30","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4024620/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"c0e5bfd5-c1e9-488f-adbb-91aafa118183","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 12th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-03-28T01:29:53+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-03-12 18:23:30","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4024620","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4024620","identity":"rs-4024620","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}