A Risk-Based System Dynamics Model for Sustainable Expert Workforce Allocation in Industrial Multi-Project Environments

This study constructs and refines a dynamic simulation framework that brings together risk and effectiveness factors affecting qualified workforce allocation in multi-project contexts, specifically in the construction of industrial production facilities. Based on a case study of three overlapping projects in West Java, Indonesia, the paper examines significant challenges in estimating and planning the requirements for an expert workforce across the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) phases. In fact, mitigation measures generally assume that a qualified expert workforce is immediately available. However, getting the right personnel for a project takes time and must be done in line with the specific qualifications. To fill this gap, the paper presents a dynamics-based model that measures project risks and execution effectiveness to determine the need for the expert workforce at the multi-project level. The mixed-methods strategy includes the literature study, variable validation, simulation modeling, and case analysis. The results show that workforce planning based on risk and effectiveness significantly improves project delivery by anticipating expert workforce shortages and reducing the need for reactive solutions. The model contributes to sustainability by enhancing long-term workforce resilience, reducing resource waste, and supporting more efficient industrial project delivery.