Spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of China's economic development performance under carbon emission constraints

Background: Guided by the green transformation of economic development, incorporating carbon peaking and carbon neutrality into ecological progress, and accelerating the formation of an industrial and energy structure that saves resources and protects the environment are the intrinsic requirements for China's high-quality economic development. The paper uses the DEA model and Malmquist productivity index to measure the economic development performance of 30 provincial units in mainland China, and summarizes the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics. Then, the Tobit model is used to analyze the influencing factors. Results: : Our results show that: (1) The static performance of economic development generally showed an upward trend from 2008 to 2020, except for Beijing, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Guangdong, Hainan, Ningxia and Xinjiang, most of provinces had different degrees of input redundancy and output insufficiency. (2) The spatial distribution pattern of the static performance under carbon emissions constraint is dominated by the higher and high-level areas. As time goes by, the number of provincial units in different level areas tends to be stable, and the spatial distribution shows staggered layout characteristics. (3) The dynamic performance of economic development shows a downward trend from 2008 to 2016, and an upward trend from 2016 to 2020. The dynamic performance in most of provincial units has realized the transformation from the constraint of technological progress to the constraint of scale efficiency. (4) The urbanization level, economic development level, energy efficiency and the vegetation coverage are the main factors affecting economic development performance, while other factors such as industrialization level, environmental regulation, motorization level, openness and government intervention have no significant effect. Conclusions: : This study suggests that China should adopt industrial structure transformation and upgrading, strengthen environmental regulation, promote new energy vehicles and introduce high-tech industries to improve economic development performance in the future.