Life history traits and MaxEnt model reveal that climate change facilitates the spread of the non-native fish species Carassius auratus on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The unique ecosystem and biodiversity of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are particularly sensitive to global climate change. In recent years, as global warming intensifies, the climate of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has been trending towards warmer and more humid conditions, exacerbating the invasion of non-native fish species in Tibet. Based on considerations of representativeness, data availability, and ecological impact, our study selected Carassius auratus as a model species to explore the adaptive changes in life history traits of invasive fish from plains to plateaus. We elucidated the mechanisms of rapid population establishment and invasion of C.auratus in Tibet. Based on the characteristics of its population's ability to withstand pressure and poor long-term stability, governance suggestions were proposed. Additionally, we used the MaxEnt species distribution model to predict changes in invasion risk zones for C.auratus under the SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0, and SSP8.5 climate scenarios by incorporating 19 climatic factors and population data. We also assessed the impact of population density and hydropower station construction on the potential suitable habitats for invasive fish on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our findings indicate that climate change will facilitate the spread of C.auratus on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and that the intensity of reproductive activities and invasion risks of invasive fish on the plateau will continue to increase in the future. In the next step, we plan to actively address the invasion of non-native fish species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau through global cooperation and integrated management. Our goal is to effectively reduce the negative impacts of climate change and biological invasions on the plateau, thereby protecting global biodiversity.