Assessing the impacts of climate change on precipitation, temperature extremes, and runoff via Lars-WG and IHACRES: A case study of the Darband River watershed, Golpayegan Basin

Assessing the impacts of climate change on precipitation, temperature extremes, and runoff via Lars-WG and IHACRES: A case study of the Darband River watershed, Golpayegan Basin | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Assessing the impacts of climate change on precipitation, temperature extremes, and runoff via Lars-WG and IHACRES: A case study of the Darband River watershed, Golpayegan Basin Seyed Amir Saman Siadatpour, Mehdi Fazeli, Mahdi Zarghami This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6484121/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Owing to its location in the arid belt, the impacts of climate change on Iran are significant. In this study, the effects of climate change on average precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and Golpayegan Darband River runoff for the next 90 years were analyzed on the basis of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), utilizing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model outputs and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The analysis was conducted via Lars-WG 6 for climate variables and IHACRES for runoff variations, incorporating historical data. According to the results, In January, the coldest month, the historical average minimum temperature was -3.26°C, expected to increase under RCP2.6 to -1.97°C (a 1.29°C rise), under RCP4.5 to -1.84°C (a 1.42°C rise), and under RCP8.5 to -0.98°C (a 2.28°C rise). in July, the hottest month, the historical average air temperature was 34.33°C, projected to rise under RCP2.6 to 35.40°C (a 1.07°C increase), under RCP4.5 to 36.96°C (a 2.63°C increase), and under RCP8.5 to 37.88°C (a 3.55°C increase). The annual average precipitation is forecasted to grow by 5.7% under RCP2.6, 1.8% under RCP4.5, and 1.9% under RCP8.5 compared with the historical period. However, the annual average runoff is projected to decline by 20.5%, 29.7%, and 35% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Climate change Rainfall-runoff model Golpayegan Darband River Lars-WG IHACRES CMIP5 Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6484121","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":458771492,"identity":"13b3bcca-db4e-4bb3-8c06-2b123c85a9b0","order_by":0,"name":"Seyed Amir Saman Siadatpour","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Yasouj University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Seyed","middleName":"Amir Saman","lastName":"Siadatpour","suffix":""},{"id":458771493,"identity":"565ea245-8c0e-472e-a751-b3d1b819cff7","order_by":1,"name":"Mehdi Fazeli","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAArUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBAC9gYg8cDABso1IEILzwEgkWCQRrIWhsMkOIyH/fjDBwkF5xM3HGB++IGh4B4RWngSkg0SDG4DtbAZSzAYFBPWYs+QcEwCooXBDOiXBCJs4X/Y/iPB4BxQC/s3IrVIJLMBQ+wAUAsPsbZIPGMGOizZeOZhnmIggyiHpT/88OGPnWzf8faNQAYRWmDAsYGZARRBJAB7UhSPglEwCkbBCAMAkm82d0TnzM8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2787-3368","institution":"Yasouj University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mehdi","middleName":"","lastName":"Fazeli","suffix":""},{"id":458771494,"identity":"028cce36-7b10-4553-a050-d912f6e81d7e","order_by":2,"name":"Mahdi Zarghami","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tehran University: University of Tehran","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mahdi","middleName":"","lastName":"Zarghami","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-19 10:26:48","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6484121/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6484121/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":96366320,"identity":"083ef405-78fb-48e8-a38c-be59d0879524","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-20 10:11:22","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1600989,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Assessingtheimpactsofclimatechange20250421.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6484121/v1_covered_fd417ac4-ae51-4805-909b-e9849b012906.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Assessing the impacts of climate change on precipitation, temperature extremes, and runoff via Lars-WG and IHACRES: A case study of the Darband River watershed, Golpayegan Basin","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Climate change, Rainfall-runoff model, Golpayegan Darband River, Lars-WG, IHACRES, CMIP5","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6484121/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6484121/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eOwing to its location in the arid belt, the impacts of climate change on Iran are significant. In this study, the effects of climate change on average precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and Golpayegan Darband River runoff for the next 90 years were analyzed on the basis of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), utilizing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model outputs and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The analysis was conducted via Lars-WG 6 for climate variables and IHACRES for runoff variations, incorporating historical data.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAccording to the results, In January, the coldest month, the historical average minimum temperature was -3.26°C, expected to increase under RCP2.6 to -1.97°C (a 1.29°C rise), under RCP4.5 to -1.84°C (a 1.42°C rise), and under RCP8.5 to -0.98°C (a 2.28°C rise). in July, the hottest month, the historical average air temperature was 34.33°C, projected to rise under RCP2.6 to 35.40°C (a 1.07°C increase), under RCP4.5 to 36.96°C (a 2.63°C increase), and under RCP8.5 to 37.88°C (a 3.55°C increase). The annual average precipitation is forecasted to grow by 5.7% under RCP2.6, 1.8% under RCP4.5, and 1.9% under RCP8.5 compared with the historical period. 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