An alternative way to mitigate non-additionality risks of carbon offsets

An alternative way to mitigate non-additionality risks of carbon offsets | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article An alternative way to mitigate non-additionality risks of carbon offsets Min Ruan, Sam Fankhauser, Pedro Moura Costa, Stephen Smith This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8205100/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The market for carbon credits is riddled with problems. Despite lengthy and costly case-by-case approval processes, often too many credits are awarded per project (over-crediting), and many projects would have happened anyway (non-additionality). Here we investigate a novel additionality regime based on: (i) dynamic positive lists that define automatic eligibility criteria, specified by host country and by project type; and (ii) partial credit issuance to reflect context-specific non-additionality risks. We carry out simulation analysis, conducted on a synthetic project pool calibrated on historical data, to demonstrate that this approach performs better than current practice under most scenarios in terms of emissions reductions, cost efficiency, and resilience against systematic over-crediting. The findings support a standardised assessment approach over project-specific evaluation, and they call for more disaggregated analysis across heterogeneous contexts to mitigate regulatory biases and deliver a simpler certification process with better climate outcomes. Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Economics Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation carbon offsetting carbon markets additionality positive lists regime design Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files NCCSICarbonCreditsAdditionality.docx Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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