On the population density limit to variable renewable energy potential

On the population density limit to variable renewable energy potential | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article On the population density limit to variable renewable energy potential Gil Barnea, Nir Barnea This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-239062/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Renewable energies are expanding rapidly around the globe. In several countries, however, their expansion is being challenged by NIMBY groups and land footprint. In this article, we suggest that indeed a major challenge for renewable energy expansion appears to be tied to land use questions, especially in regions with high population density. Our research finds a strong relationship between population density and renewable energy expansion. The power density of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources, such as wind turbines or photovoltaic panels, is much lower than that of fossil fuels or nuclear power plants, to the extent that land availability seems to be the limiting factor for large scale VRE production. During the last decade, a substantial theoretical effort was dedicated to study the actual power density of VRE, and the available space in order to estimate the limits that land footprint sets on VRE production. On top of the technological, and geographical issues associated with such studies there are somewhat more complicated and less well defined sociological issues related to the willingness of population to live in near proximity to large scale VRE farms. To explore the overall issue of VRE penetration and limitations, the installed VRE capacity data from different countries is examined. It is found that in Germany, with VRE power density of 0.27 W/m2 (2018 data), there is a strong negative correlation between the population density and VRE capacity, dominated by solar power production. We interpret this correlation as an indication that Germany has reached the point where land usage is becoming the limiting factor for installation of new VRE power plants. As Germany is a worldwide leader in VRE production per capita with more than 1 kW/person, we speculate that this sets a universal barrier of 2%-3% on the fractional land area available for VRE production. Crossing this barrier the expansion of the installed VRE capacity is expected to stall. This does not, however, mean that renewable energy expansion will be doomed in countries with high population density. Rather it suggests the need for new approaches — a stronger focus on battery storage technologies, inter-sectoral coupling (renewable energy storage in automobile batteries) and continued investment in efficiency improvements of renewable energy technologies. It may also be a question of how renewable energy develops — enhancing solar on existing built infrastructure (rooftops, siding, and even roads) could help address this issue. Renewable Resources Environmental Policy Renewable energy density population density land footprint installed capacity Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Full Text Due to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. However, the latest manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-239062","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":11743451,"identity":"746b6e02-44e2-46fb-a27c-ef68345c1bc7","order_by":0,"name":"Gil Barnea","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABBklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZuY2CIO9gYEhoQAuLiGDWwsjVAvPAaAWAwYJmBYe3NbAtEgkAAmEFgacWuTdGdse/NxzR45/5uvEDw8MGOr4ZyQwfvjBYIFTi+FhxnbDnmfPjCVu526WADlM4kYCs2QPHocZNjO2SfAcOJzYcDt3A1gLw40EBml8fgFpkfxz4HD9/JtnN/8AaZEH2vIbnxZ5YIhJA21JMLjBuw1si8GNBDa8thgwM7Ybyxw4bLjxTO42iwQDCcmNZx62WfYY4LGl//Cxh28OHJaXO352880fFTb8cseTD9/4UVEnh9OWA6h8ULQwNoAiCCeQb8AtNwpGwSgYBaMAAgBeqVFQ9juKOAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Tel-Aviv University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gil","middleName":"","lastName":"Barnea","suffix":""},{"id":11743452,"identity":"0a2be8f5-2cd3-4784-b86e-fd75624860f1","order_by":1,"name":"Nir Barnea","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The Hebrew University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nir","middleName":"","lastName":"Barnea","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2021-02-13 08:42:58","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":true,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"coiExplicitlySet":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-239062/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-239062/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":5974837,"identity":"6e8c634a-db20-49d6-ac8e-c35a3fb7e979","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-15 16:35:17","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":76476,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Installed VRE capacity per capita vs the population density, in the di˙erent German states (2015). The blue line results from (3) with the\nbest estimate for b, the light blue band stands for an error of ± standard deviation in b. Data source: Germany Renewable Energies Agency.","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-239062/v1/02cc0dbe8baf20d9ad1bd33e.png"},{"id":5974978,"identity":"c7d20a33-dd6c-4e80-b408-29a78df4495c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-15 16:38:17","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":71274,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Germany and China states Installed VRE capacity per capita vs the population density (2015). The blue dots are Germany’s states\nand the blue line shows Germany’s 0.23 ± 0.02 W/m02027fit. 0The004red dots2\nare China’s states and the red line shows China’s . ± . W/m gradient. The light gray band stands for the cuto˙ of 0.001 W/m2 for\nstates with low power density.","description":"","filename":"2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-239062/v1/88eeb7021abbec1f2c90a927.png"},{"id":5974981,"identity":"cd0b7aa0-0037-4c46-aa92-c9e6d82b7bdf","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-15 16:38:17","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":49916,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"The correlation between installed VRE capacity per capita and\nthe population density in Germany as a function of time. Top: The\nabsolute value of the Pearson correlation jrj. Bottom: The power density\nparameter bc. Blue squares: onshore wind. Red squares: solar. The lines\nare linear or exponential fits to the data.","description":"","filename":"3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-239062/v1/9556e0411f70e861f857a147.png"},{"id":5974980,"identity":"9c89dec0-d4df-4699-bc47-7fa7ae4ec8d2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-15 16:38:17","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":77511,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Installed VRE and population density for 131 countries worldwide\n(2015 data). 35 The blue trend line represents Germany’s (2018) 0.27\nW/m2 fit. The green lines represent theoretical solar and wind density\ncalculated theoretical limits of 1.0, 4.0, 16.0 W/m2.","description":"","filename":"4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-239062/v1/4517d259673e5395474b7a28.png"},{"id":5975083,"identity":"b73ed056-3147-4301-bc1d-5c2022edaa6a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-15 16:41:17","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":85336,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"The installed electricity production capacity and population density for 131 countries worldwide (2015 data). The black trend line rep-resents Germany’s 2018 bc = 0.27 W/m2 value.","description":"","filename":"5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-239062/v1/fc3ba00a1a8459322edab497.png"},{"id":13588272,"identity":"c1352ae4-4af7-4aaf-8058-96a06d57dd7a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-09-17 04:54:52","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":816133,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"populationdensityandrenewableenergypotential.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-239062/v1_covered.pdf"},{"id":5975387,"identity":"05280f1b-f2a0-46d6-a92e-884639fbb4cc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-15 16:44:22","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":876500,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"populationdensityandrenewableenergypotential.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-239062/v1_stamped.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eOn the population density limit to variable renewable energy potential\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[{"header":"Full Text","content":"Due to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. 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In several countries, however, their expansion is being challenged by NIMBY groups and land footprint. In this article, we suggest that indeed a major challenge for renewable energy expansion appears to be tied to land use questions, especially in regions with high population density. Our research finds a strong relationship between population density and renewable energy expansion. The power density of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources, such as wind turbines or photovoltaic panels, is much lower than that of fossil fuels or nuclear power plants, to the extent that land availability seems to be the limiting factor for large scale VRE production. During the last decade, a substantial theoretical effort was dedicated to study the actual power density of VRE, and the available space in order to estimate the limits that land footprint sets on VRE production. On top of the technological, and geographical issues associated with such studies there are somewhat more complicated and less well defined sociological issues related to the willingness of population to live in near proximity to large scale VRE farms. To explore the overall issue of VRE penetration and limitations, the installed VRE capacity data from different countries is examined. It is found that in Germany, with VRE power density of 0.27 W/m2 (2018 data), there is a strong negative correlation between the population density and VRE capacity, dominated by solar power production. We interpret this correlation as an indication that Germany has reached the point where land usage is becoming the limiting factor for installation of new VRE power plants. As Germany is a worldwide leader in VRE production per capita with more than 1 kW/person, we speculate that this sets a universal barrier of 2%-3% on the fractional land area available for VRE production. Crossing this barrier the expansion of the installed VRE capacity is expected to stall. This does not, however, mean that renewable energy expansion will be doomed in countries with high population density. Rather it suggests the need for new approaches — a stronger focus on battery storage technologies, inter-sectoral coupling (renewable energy storage in automobile batteries) and continued investment in efficiency improvements of renewable energy technologies. It may also be a question of how renewable energy develops — enhancing solar on existing built infrastructure (rooftops, siding, and even roads) could help address this issue.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"On the population density limit to variable renewable energy potential","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2021-02-15 16:35:15","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-239062/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"bde5408c-9ee4-4bcb-8385-a0af1b370d93","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 15th, 2021","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":2399552,"name":"Renewable Resources"},{"id":2399553,"name":"Environmental Policy"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2021-02-15T16:35:15+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2021-02-15 16:35:15","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-239062","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-239062","identity":"rs-239062","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"_2-kVJe1T_tPrBINL-cwx","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}