The Nexus between Land Use and Land Cover Change, Vegetation Density, and Land Surface Temperature: A Case Study of Lake Abaya Catchment in the Southern Main Ethiopian Rift

The Nexus between Land Use and Land Cover Change, Vegetation Density, and Land Surface Temperature: A Case Study of Lake Abaya Catchment in the Southern Main Ethiopian Rift | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Nexus between Land Use and Land Cover Change, Vegetation Density, and Land Surface Temperature: A Case Study of Lake Abaya Catchment in the Southern Main Ethiopian Rift Abiyot Akirso, Yechale Kebede, Asnake Boyana, Liuelsegad Belayneh This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7940336/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 24 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Land use and land cover change (LULCC) significantly alters ecosystem processes by reducing vegetation cover, intensifying land degradation, and modifying local climate conditions. This study examined the interplay between LULC dynamics, vegetation density, and land surface temperature (LST) in the Lake Abaya catchment, Southern Main Ethiopian Rift. Landsat TM (1986), ETM+ (2003), and OLI/TIRS (2019) images were analyzed using supervised maximum likelihood classification in ERDAS IMAGINE 2015 and ArcGIS 10.5, supported by field observations and focus group discussions. Classification accuracy was validated with ground control points, while NDVI–LST relationships were quantified through linear regression in SPSS 21. Results revealed pronounced landscape transformation: forest cover declined from 35.1% in 1986 to 25.7% in 2019, while agricultural land expanded from 15.6% to 26.2%. The transition matrix confirmed large-scale conversion of forest and rangeland to agriculture. Bare areas exhibited the highest LST values, contrasting with cooler forested and water surfaces. Regression analysis demonstrated a strong inverse relationship between NDVI and LST, emphasizing the cooling role of vegetation in regulating surface energy balance. Overall, the findings highlight accelerating land degradation and ecosystem stress, with direct implications for microclimate regulation and food security. Strengthening sustainable land management and ecological restoration is therefore critical to mitigate the adverse impacts of LULCC in the catchment Land use/land covers change NDVI Land surface temperature Lake Abaya catchment Remote Sensing Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 16 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 14 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 12 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 12 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 10 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 10 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 29 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 16 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Nov, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 15 Nov, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 28 Oct, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 28 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 24 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7940336","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":535838985,"identity":"952ac23c-dfb8-4d47-93de-32f21b0546e7","order_by":0,"name":"Abiyot 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Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Land use/land covers change, NDVI, Land surface temperature, Lake Abaya catchment, Remote Sensing","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7940336/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7940336/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eLand use and land cover change (LULCC) significantly alters ecosystem processes by reducing vegetation cover, intensifying land degradation, and modifying local climate conditions. This study examined the interplay between LULC dynamics, vegetation density, and land surface temperature (LST) in the Lake Abaya catchment, Southern Main Ethiopian Rift. Landsat TM (1986), ETM+ (2003), and OLI/TIRS (2019) images were analyzed using supervised maximum likelihood classification in ERDAS IMAGINE 2015 and ArcGIS 10.5, supported by field observations and focus group discussions. Classification accuracy was validated with ground control points, while NDVI\u0026ndash;LST relationships were quantified through linear regression in SPSS 21. Results revealed pronounced landscape transformation: forest cover declined from 35.1% in 1986 to 25.7% in 2019, while agricultural land expanded from 15.6% to 26.2%. The transition matrix confirmed large-scale conversion of forest and rangeland to agriculture. Bare areas exhibited the highest LST values, contrasting with cooler forested and water surfaces. Regression analysis demonstrated a strong inverse relationship between NDVI and LST, emphasizing the cooling role of vegetation in regulating surface energy balance. Overall, the findings highlight accelerating land degradation and ecosystem stress, with direct implications for microclimate regulation and food security. Strengthening sustainable land management and ecological restoration is therefore critical to mitigate the adverse impacts of LULCC in the catchment\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The Nexus between Land Use and Land Cover Change, Vegetation Density, and Land Surface Temperature: A Case Study of Lake Abaya Catchment in the Southern Main Ethiopian Rift","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-28 16:27:46","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7940336/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-12-16T09:38:03+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"231292003000079310663289163618521878545","date":"2025-12-16T07:07:52+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-14T07:53:14+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"201728826667426723222939513787815830816","date":"2025-12-13T11:07:04+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-12T16:27:58+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-12T06:23:20+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"329624422810814758990881884187144495093","date":"2025-12-11T09:14:52+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"90368642353888797437094434652166160783","date":"2025-12-11T03:37:33+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-10T15:41:51+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"152885681848268186430026089786584628606","date":"2025-12-10T15:37:16+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"212455767708252292475438604262961028332","date":"2025-12-10T15:04:28+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"171107815790792695764012037775192708987","date":"2025-12-10T14:40:51+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"70154165149098164752266187242839016278","date":"2025-12-10T14:38:04+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-10T12:04:28+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-11-30T01:12:06+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"264427309810616898916851255124790431702","date":"2025-11-21T00:02:32+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"20460116673078444386053363483103247334","date":"2025-11-18T01:04:37+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"120087245060965564662452646699358151234","date":"2025-11-17T18:56:44+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-11-16T13:57:43+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"228367864335604383362633650776750826157","date":"2025-11-15T18:36:33+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-11-15T18:14:04+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-10-28T08:04:54+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-10-28T08:02:56+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Discover Applied Sciences","date":"2025-10-24T11:50:37+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-applied-sciences","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Applied Sciences](https://link.springer.com/journal/42452)","snPcode":"42452","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/42452/3","title":"Discover Applied Sciences","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"b17904ae-8b29-4054-b86b-a119e27d32d3","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 28th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-02T09:41:40+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-28 16:27:46","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7940336","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7940336","identity":"rs-7940336","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}