Recent acceleration in N2O growth rate (2013-2023) is caused by increases of nitrogen-fertiliser use and emissions in northern tropics and southern land

Recent acceleration in N2O growth rate (2013-2023) is caused by increases of nitrogen-fertiliser use and emissions in northern tropics and southern land | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Recent acceleration in N2O growth rate (2013-2023) is caused by increases of nitrogen-fertiliser use and emissions in northern tropics and southern land Prabir K. Patra, Yasunori Tohjima, Akihiko Ito, Naveen Chandra, and 11 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7634454/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 28 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Geoscience Letters → Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a strong greenhouse gas that contributes significantly to global warming and causes depletion of ozone in the stratosphere. Recent observational records show an unprecedented acceleration in atmospheric N₂O growth, reaching 1.15 ppb yr-1 in 2019–2023, a significant increase compared to 0.68 ppb yr-1 in 2001–2005. This surge in growth rate is particularly pronounced over tropical regions. In this study, we use N₂O observations from globally distributed multi-institutional networks and the MIROC4-ACTM inversion framework to quantify N₂O emissions and identify key regions that are driving the recent acceleration. Our results suggest that the major Asian countries, Brazil, Central and Northern Africa, and the Coterminous United States have increased emission sources in the recent 2.5 decades (1998-2023). Further, the increase in land N2O emissions, at a rate of 106 GgN yr-2 during 1998-2002 to 2019-2023 (1Gg=109g), has been clearly associated with the use of nitrogen fertilisers to support extensive agriculture, as inferred from a terrestrial ecosystem model, statistics of nitrogen fertiliser use and inversion results. The emissions from oceanic regions did not show significant increases in N2O emissions (rate: 7±2 GgN yr-2). Our results underscore the importance for improved climate mitigation strategies and emissions reduction policies by increasing nitrogen-fertiliser use efficiency (NUE) in agricultural land. Nitrous oxide N2O emissions chemistry-transport model regional source-sink 48 inversion nitrogen fertiliser natural soil oceanic exchange ecosystem nitrogen dynamics Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files n2oemis2020spatrasupl.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 28 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Geoscience Letters → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 22 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 11 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 09 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 01 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 25 Nov, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 25 Nov, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 18 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 18 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 16 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7634454","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":551948947,"identity":"4014eaae-f4c3-4079-8c8e-c169f76d725c","order_by":0,"name":"Prabir K. Patra","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACNoYEBhtmZJEEYrSkgbQwNhCvhYHhMAOyFvzAXPrwswcP95xn5592/PmDDzUMdv0MDM8e4NNi2ZdmbpDw7DazxO0cw8YZxxiSZzYwpBvg02JwhsFMIuHAbWaG2zmMzbwNDMkGBxjSJPBrYf8G1HKOWf52+sPmv8Rp4QHZcoDZ4HaCYTMwAOwIarHs4Sk3SDiQzGwI9MvMnmMSCZLNBPxizsO+7eGPA3bJcrfTH3z4UWNjz8/ek/YAr8OgdDKUlkhsYOZJw6cDrsUOJmDPwMB+DK+WUTAKRsEoGHEAANQUSb7D0C4NAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"JAMSTEC","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Prabir","middleName":"K.","lastName":"Patra","suffix":""},{"id":551948948,"identity":"8bd43701-bc72-4053-8a84-d0764a9da0ce","order_by":1,"name":"Yasunori Tohjima","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yasunori","middleName":"","lastName":"Tohjima","suffix":""},{"id":551948949,"identity":"c1ec6eba-95d0-4e8c-9f5d-6fc162347436","order_by":2,"name":"Akihiko Ito","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The University of Tokyo","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Akihiko","middleName":"","lastName":"Ito","suffix":""},{"id":551948950,"identity":"99fd2243-ef35-4d81-a2bf-43a36fa7b646","order_by":3,"name":"Naveen Chandra","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"JAMSTEC","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Naveen","middleName":"","lastName":"Chandra","suffix":""},{"id":551948952,"identity":"8de3f34f-8a4f-45ee-b044-e08f846beafe","order_by":4,"name":"Motoki Sasakawa","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Motoki","middleName":"","lastName":"Sasakawa","suffix":""},{"id":551948954,"identity":"f229c094-33fb-4771-b47e-ccb0bb627177","order_by":5,"name":"Xin Lan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Oceanic \u0026 Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xin","middleName":"","lastName":"Lan","suffix":""},{"id":551948955,"identity":"0f6b5f13-1bc6-44bc-92c7-032d4b1aec02","order_by":6,"name":"Bradley D. Hall","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Oceanic \u0026 Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bradley","middleName":"D.","lastName":"Hall","suffix":""},{"id":551948956,"identity":"2ceade21-372b-45bf-95c7-ccdc1306e206","order_by":7,"name":"Paul B. Krummel","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"CSIRO Environment","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Paul","middleName":"B.","lastName":"Krummel","suffix":""},{"id":551948957,"identity":"98eb6877-b868-4a2c-875f-6210c34c144e","order_by":8,"name":"Ray F. Weiss","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of California","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ray","middleName":"F.","lastName":"Weiss","suffix":""},{"id":551948958,"identity":"9d00dd94-a5b9-4337-b3da-4163e96f1c29","order_by":9,"name":"Christina M. Harth","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of California","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Christina","middleName":"M.","lastName":"Harth","suffix":""},{"id":551948959,"identity":"d92779dd-fe6a-454a-a131-3a4bee08bfde","order_by":10,"name":"Shinya Takatsuji","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Japan Meteorological Agency","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shinya","middleName":"","lastName":"Takatsuji","suffix":""},{"id":551948960,"identity":"fff3f93d-5ba9-44ab-8b55-1b409bee5ced","order_by":11,"name":"Daisuke Goto","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Institute of Polar Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daisuke","middleName":"","lastName":"Goto","suffix":""},{"id":551948961,"identity":"0e1c0f94-83d5-45cf-8925-35d7d969b8f7","order_by":12,"name":"Kumiko Takata","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"JAMSTEC","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kumiko","middleName":"","lastName":"Takata","suffix":""},{"id":551948962,"identity":"cc39d139-473c-4a62-b2d4-b97496ce9c0b","order_by":13,"name":"Luke Western","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Luke","middleName":"","lastName":"Western","suffix":""},{"id":551948963,"identity":"a0f5a08c-085d-4b15-a214-fa7470674562","order_by":14,"name":"Ronald G. Prinn","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ronald","middleName":"G.","lastName":"Prinn","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-09-17 01:23:28","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7634454/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7634454/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-026-00476-z","type":"published","date":"2026-04-28T15:57:04+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":97106849,"identity":"50e1652c-61bc-4ac7-b5dd-25b77237402b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-01 05:14:34","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":3432437,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"n2oemis2020spatra.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7634454/v1/555379bada3b23b3a3d704a2.pdf"},{"id":97106846,"identity":"0e584c39-a53b-4f08-884f-ba1913ca46d0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-01 05:14:34","extension":"json","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":14879,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ad3d1a3e7fee4ac9a31e4ad9cad5234d.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7634454/v1/092971fc98c31d5209ba2cb8.json"},{"id":97106848,"identity":"370ef219-e24a-4823-8fba-2f6ada20cdd2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-01 05:14:34","extension":"pdf","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":2568491,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"n2oemis2020spatrasupl.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7634454/v1/d53f588a4e33fe5a236a332a.pdf"},{"id":108437557,"identity":"43e9f209-6ece-4a41-9206-ac138e80971a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-04 15:59:12","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1599493,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"n2oemis2020spatra.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7634454/v1_covered_caac8766-f580-4598-a3f5-b80d4f9f52a7.pdf"},{"id":97106847,"identity":"cb7f175b-fffd-4e74-9f35-f5d3e3c743ad","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-01 05:14:34","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":2568491,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"n2oemis2020spatrasupl.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7634454/v1/c7c51a2b06b47761b92166a0.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Recent acceleration in N2O growth rate (2013-2023) is caused by increases of nitrogen-fertiliser use and emissions in northern tropics and southern land","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"geoscience-letters","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"gosl","sideBox":"Learn more about [Geoscience Letters](https://geoscienceletters.springeropen.com/)","snPcode":"40562","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/40562/3","title":"Geoscience Letters","twitterHandle":"@SpringerOpen","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Nitrous oxide, N2O emissions, chemistry-transport model, regional source-sink 48 inversion, nitrogen fertiliser, natural soil, oceanic exchange, ecosystem nitrogen dynamics","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7634454/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7634454/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a strong greenhouse gas that contributes significantly to global warming and causes depletion of ozone in the stratosphere. Recent observational records show an unprecedented acceleration in atmospheric N₂O growth, reaching 1.15 ppb yr-1 in 2019–2023, a significant increase compared to 0.68 ppb yr-1 in 2001–2005. This surge in growth rate is particularly pronounced over tropical regions. In this study, we use N₂O observations from globally distributed multi-institutional networks and the MIROC4-ACTM inversion framework to quantify N₂O emissions and identify key regions that are driving the recent acceleration. Our results suggest that the major Asian countries, Brazil, Central and Northern Africa, and the Coterminous United States have increased emission sources in the recent 2.5 decades (1998-2023). Further, the increase in land N2O emissions, at a rate of 106 GgN yr-2 during 1998-2002 to 2019-2023 (1Gg=109g), has been clearly associated with the use of nitrogen fertilisers to support extensive agriculture, as inferred from a terrestrial ecosystem model, statistics of nitrogen fertiliser use and inversion results. The emissions from oceanic regions did not show significant increases in N2O emissions (rate: 7±2 GgN yr-2). Our results underscore the importance for improved climate mitigation strategies and emissions reduction policies by increasing nitrogen-fertiliser use efficiency (NUE) in agricultural land.","manuscriptTitle":"Recent acceleration in N2O growth rate (2013-2023) is caused by increases of nitrogen-fertiliser use and emissions in northern tropics and southern land","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-01 05:14:29","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7634454/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-12-23T02:55:03+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-11T15:08:01+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-09T12:30:14+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-02T04:12:21+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"118791678053302379625768094716189622600","date":"2025-11-27T08:15:39+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"143254407609898631952893019790816105077","date":"2025-11-26T10:33:39+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"98789268673401883336859793436273835879","date":"2025-11-26T05:01:16+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"21989512290805158927138437371363511439","date":"2025-11-26T01:34:58+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-11-25T22:06:13+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-09-19T03:25:02+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-09-18T14:20:44+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Geoscience Letters","date":"2025-09-17T01:19:21+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"geoscience-letters","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"gosl","sideBox":"Learn more about [Geoscience Letters](https://geoscienceletters.springeropen.com/)","snPcode":"40562","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/40562/3","title":"Geoscience Letters","twitterHandle":"@SpringerOpen","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"7a3bc21e-9854-442b-8337-365b4aa4961e","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 1st, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-04T15:58:55+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-7634454","link":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-026-00476-z","journal":{"identity":"geoscience-letters","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Geoscience Letters"},"publishedOn":"2026-04-28 15:57:04","publishedOnDateReadable":"April 28th, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-01 05:14:29","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1186/s40562-026-00476-z","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-026-00476-z","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7634454","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7634454","identity":"rs-7634454","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}