Predicting and interpreting large scale mutagenesis data using analyses of protein stability and conservation

Understanding and predicting the functional consequences of single amino acid is central in many areas of protein science. Here we collected and analysed experimental measurements of effects of >150,000 variants in 29 proteins. We used biophysical calculations to predict changes in stability for each variant, and assessed them in light of sequence conservation. We find that the sequence analyses give more accurate prediction of variant effects than predictions of stability, and that about half of the variants that show loss of function do so due to stability effects. We construct a machine learning model to predict variant effects from protein structure and sequence alignments, and show how the two sources of information are able to support one another. Together our results show how one can leverage large-scale experimental assessments of variant effects to gain deeper and general insights into the mechanisms that cause loss of function.