Reef fish functional groups show variable declines due to deforestation-driven sedimentation, while flexible harvesting mitigates this damage

Reef fish functional groups show variable declines due to deforestation-driven sedimentation, while flexible harvesting mitigates this damage | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Reef fish functional groups show variable declines due to deforestation-driven sedimentation, while flexible harvesting mitigates this damage Russell Milne, Madhur Anand, Chris T. Bauch This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7596571/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Sedimentation is a major coral reef stressor, with effects including suppressing algae consumption by herbivorous fish. This puts pressure on reef fish populations and the fisheries that harvest them. Deforestation causes much sedimentation on reefs, and is an ongoing concern in many tropical island states. Although ecosystem processes like deforestation and fish population dynamics are usually far from equilibrium, explicitly time-dependent analyses of reef fish vulnerability to deforestation are rare. Additionally, optimization methods for fisheries on heavily sedimented reefs are generally unexplored. Here, we construct a model coupling four reef fish functional groups with seabed dynamics and deforestation, parametrized to represent a wide variety of tropical coastal forests. We show that with predicted human population increases, highland deforestation could cause omnivorous fish abundances to halve within 15-30 years, and piscivorous fish and top predators to do so around 20 years later. In contrast, piscivorous fish and top predators are resilient to lowland deforestation, and herbivorous fish populations often recover after initial declines during sedimentation pressure. We demonstrate that flexible fishing approaches could lead to high and temporally stable populations of most functional groups, offsetting sedimentation-related stress. We show that the combination of deforestation and increased fishing demand due to human population growth may cause medium-term local reef fish extirpation. Our results provide sustainability guidelines for reef fisheries, and demonstrate nonlinear interactions between overfishing and deforestation. Coral reef fisheries food web model tropical moist forests fishing quotas soil erosion Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supplementaryinformation.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 18 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 02 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 22 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 18 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 18 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 18 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 12 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7596571","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":521788986,"identity":"c670e1a9-3874-4230-9b88-ceb0ff79818b","order_by":0,"name":"Russell Milne","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDAC9gaGAw8YGOSgXAsitPAcYDiQwMBgDGQyNjAwSBChRQKoHogSG4jWYt6QnXggcYdN+oYbyc8ffNwjIcfPwPzwAz4tMgfObjiQeCYtd8ONNMPGGc8kjCUb2Izx2iXB2AvU0nY4d8PtBMNmngMSiRsO8OB3ngQzL0jL/3SD2+kfm/9AtDD/wKuFDazlQILB7RzDZgaIFjb8tvCAtSQbzrz/pnBmzwGgX5rZzPDGjoT8280fPrbZyfOdOb7hw48DNnL87M2Pb+DTggUwk6h+FIyCUTAKRgEmAADhaFCd6O3bTgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"University of Waterloo","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Russell","middleName":"","lastName":"Milne","suffix":""},{"id":521788987,"identity":"374e70c2-8299-4bc2-a74d-3edb777b4daf","order_by":1,"name":"Madhur Anand","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Guelph","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Madhur","middleName":"","lastName":"Anand","suffix":""},{"id":521788988,"identity":"03974ebb-856b-472b-963d-d45c448f58ea","order_by":2,"name":"Chris T. Bauch","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Waterloo","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chris","middleName":"T.","lastName":"Bauch","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-09-12 05:08:20","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7596571/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7596571/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":92438616,"identity":"8227e9d6-c6e5-4b56-bf20-c084a19e22f9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-29 17:49:47","extension":"json","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":5250,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"bf7dc4c9c8564ab48d770f0939a3e3ad.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7596571/v1/254221417ea9f31c9f74959a.json"},{"id":92439253,"identity":"efda8f67-e180-44b0-9f49-d885a759b1a2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-29 17:57:56","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":9225868,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"LaTeXpapersource.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7596571/v1_covered_73f5e53a-1e99-4640-a394-7b1b3a130e29.pdf"},{"id":92438617,"identity":"cf959509-4372-4a88-aad5-c3fda3c889d7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-29 17:49:47","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":8782361,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Supplementaryinformation.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7596571/v1/8f1b7fb97ffc2dc299cb5d37.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Reef fish functional groups show variable declines due to deforestation-driven sedimentation, while flexible harvesting mitigates this damage","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"theoretical-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"thee","sideBox":"Learn more about [Theoretical Ecology](https://www.springer.com/journal/12080)","snPcode":"12080","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/12080/3","title":"Theoretical Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Coral reef fisheries; food web model; tropical moist forests; fishing quotas; soil erosion","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7596571/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7596571/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Sedimentation is a major coral reef stressor, with effects including suppressing algae consumption by herbivorous fish. This puts pressure on reef fish populations and the fisheries that harvest them. Deforestation causes much sedimentation on reefs, and is an ongoing concern in many tropical island states. Although ecosystem processes like deforestation and fish population dynamics are usually far from equilibrium, explicitly time-dependent analyses of reef fish vulnerability to deforestation are rare. Additionally, optimization methods for fisheries on heavily sedimented reefs are generally unexplored. Here, we construct a model coupling four reef fish functional groups with seabed dynamics and deforestation, parametrized to represent a wide variety of tropical coastal forests. We show that with predicted human population increases, highland deforestation could cause omnivorous fish abundances to halve within 15-30 years, and piscivorous fish and top predators to do so around 20 years later. In contrast, piscivorous fish and top predators are resilient to lowland deforestation, and herbivorous fish populations often recover after initial declines during sedimentation pressure. We demonstrate that flexible fishing approaches could lead to high and temporally stable populations of most functional groups, offsetting sedimentation-related stress. We show that the combination of deforestation and increased fishing demand due to human population growth may cause medium-term local reef fish extirpation. Our results provide sustainability guidelines for reef fisheries, and demonstrate nonlinear interactions between overfishing and deforestation.","manuscriptTitle":"Reef fish functional groups show variable declines due to deforestation-driven sedimentation, while flexible harvesting mitigates this damage","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-29 17:49:42","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7596571/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-03-19T03:18:33+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-10-02T19:19:58+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"282754364409692537469599017520868864242","date":"2025-09-22T14:48:35+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-09-18T15:13:06+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-09-18T13:14:08+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-09-18T13:14:04+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Theoretical Ecology","date":"2025-09-12T05:01:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"theoretical-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"thee","sideBox":"Learn more about [Theoretical Ecology](https://www.springer.com/journal/12080)","snPcode":"12080","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/12080/3","title":"Theoretical Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"c7783c3d-0691-4a32-a476-5a1d5544e0c9","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 29th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"in-revision","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-19T03:23:24+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-29 17:49:42","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7596571","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7596571","identity":"rs-7596571","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}