Estimating Annualized Earthquake Loss for Residential Buildings in Tehran, Iran

Abstract A probabilistic seismic risk assessment is conducted in this study to quantify Annualized Earthquake Loss (AEL) of Tehran, the capital of Iran. To do so, a comprehensive review of three main components of risk assessment including the seismic hazard analysis, exposure model and vulnerability functions is performed. The classical seismic hazard analysis is carried out based on the most recent earthquake catalog by considering the available uncertainties. A high-quality building exposure model based on recent census data with geographic resolution of census blocks is also compiled. According to available information, buildings are classified into 19 groups by considering their construction material, quality and height. The results show that sum of AEL in Tehran is about 10488 million USD, which is equivalent to 0.16% of exposed economic value. The spatial distribution of AEL indicated that value of AEL in the eastern districts is higher; however, the relative seismic risk in term of AELR in the southern districts of the city is much higher. In addition, a disaggregation analysis per building typology is performed to identify the contribution of different building taxonomies in AEL. The results show that the masonry and low-quality steel and concrete structures with poor designing specifications have the highest contribution in AEL. The finding from this study can be used by local authorities, government and insurance sector in order to develop effective risk mitigation plans and a robust insurance scheme for Tehran, Iran.