Self-adaptive multi-objective climate policies align mitigation and adaptation strategies

Self-adaptive multi-objective climate policies align mitigation and adaptation strategies | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Self-adaptive multi-objective climate policies align mitigation and adaptation strategies Angelo Carlino, Massimo Tavoni, Andrea Castelletti This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-412959/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract With intensifying climate change impacts, there is a risk that economic resources needed to adapt to the rising damages are diverted away from emission reduction, jeopardizing the chances of stabilizing temperature within safe levels. Indeed, the traditional static single-objective formulation leads to a conflict between mitigation and adaptation, invalidating the recently established consistency of cost-benefit analysis with Paris agreement targets. Here, we show that this tension can be resolved by integrating multi-objective optimization and feedback control in the DICE model to design self-adaptive climate policies trading off welfare maximization with Paris Agreement achievement. These policies allow adjusting against uncertainty as information on the socio-climatic system accumulates thus more realistically representing the policy-making process. Years above 2°C are drastically reduced, and costs of meeting the Paris agreement lowered by 2 trillion USD emphasizing the need for integrating adaptation and mitigation strategies and the value of embracing a self-adaptive and multi-objective perspective. Climate Analysis and Modeling Climatology Environmental Engineering Environmental Policy climate change impacts climate policies emission reduction mitigation adaptation strategies Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Full Text Due to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. However, the manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF. Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-412959","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":22701570,"identity":"7f67cf1c-120b-45a6-8dca-fe2c52e45f7a","order_by":0,"name":"Angelo Carlino","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8403-9070","institution":"Politecnico di Milano","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Angelo","middleName":"","lastName":"Carlino","suffix":""},{"id":22701571,"identity":"f85ff944-b469-4db4-b723-638edcf2e2f4","order_by":1,"name":"Massimo Tavoni","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5069-4707","institution":"Polytechnic University of Milan","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Massimo","middleName":"","lastName":"Tavoni","suffix":""},{"id":22701572,"identity":"2c4d7d19-c706-4c6f-b362-8bb0b5cbe52a","order_by":2,"name":"Andrea Castelletti","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7923-1498","institution":"Politecnico di Milano","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Andrea","middleName":"","lastName":"Castelletti","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2021-04-11 16:45:41","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-412959/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-412959/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":8381006,"identity":"b9593109-55a0-4ea9-b54b-a0283b2b9b0c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-04-23 17:50:47","extension":"jpg","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":29492,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Implications for Paris Agreement compliance using the traditional static welfare maximization decisionmaking\nmodel. Uncertainty makes lower temperature economically favorable but including adaptation leads to a\nresurgence of the conflict between economic optimality and climate stabilization.","description":"","filename":"1.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-412959/v1/2cde543f941ed2f99c1cfd2b.jpg"},{"id":8381007,"identity":"03d437c4-4b6c-4513-a04b-378118635757","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-04-23 17:50:47","extension":"jpg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":47101,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"SACPs can largely reduce the conflict between economic and institutional perspective as the Pareto front\nmoves in the direction of preference for both temperature and economic objectives with respect to multi-objective\nstatic climate policies. The static single objective climate policy presents a stark contrast between the two objectives and reports the worst outcome in terms of 2°C overshoot.","description":"","filename":"2.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-412959/v1/fd67b3de060b40bc5efd3d8e.jpg"},{"id":8381536,"identity":"4cff2ceb-6b4d-4a2f-a7e3-bb04ebbd4ccb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-04-23 17:56:48","extension":"jpg","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":211376,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Models’ performance with respect to different cost metrics and the two objectives considered, namely,\nwelfare and years above 2°C. For each metric and objective considered, the preferred value lies at the bottom end of\neach axis. Cost metrics are reported as net present value trillion USD and are computed using Ramsey discounting.","description":"","filename":"3.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-412959/v1/c98fa7860ec832a5bcee1564.jpg"},{"id":8381226,"identity":"4c55cce9-f135-4d2b-8687-062a3884a58f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-04-23 17:53:48","extension":"jpg","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":75732,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Adaptation costs for static (a) and self-adaptive (b) climate policies are reported against the adaptation\nefficiency and residual climate damages. Self-adaptive climate policies modulate the adaptation effort proportionally\nto residual climate damages and inversely proportional to adaptation efficiency.","description":"","filename":"4.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-412959/v1/8b202e05665e91e010199297.jpg"},{"id":8381939,"identity":"1cddf47a-9e10-44a1-9ed6-86f473246a31","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-04-23 17:59:48","extension":"jpg","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":172595,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Social cost of carbon estimates across the Pareto optimal set of alternatives using static (a) and self-adaptive\n(b) climate policies: squares represent mean values while diamonds report the median. The probability of the temperature\nthreshold outcome for a given social cost of carbon estimate is reported for static (c) and self-adaptive climate\npolicy (d).","description":"","filename":"5.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-412959/v1/dbb664eef8e50151b23285f9.jpg"},{"id":13624886,"identity":"98a3ba28-1398-4311-a469-db2852eaca3b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-09-17 07:24:21","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":16205170,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Main.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-412959/v1_covered.pdf"},{"id":9932245,"identity":"d7b27c95-a3d8-412a-90dc-8cc326da59cd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-06-03 12:01:14","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":16201664,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Main.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-412959/v1_covered.pdf"},{"id":8381981,"identity":"3885afa7-a3fd-4c0c-a654-f7f9a4b30f68","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-04-23 18:02:57","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":14238467,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Main.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-412959/v1_stamped.pdf"},{"id":8381229,"identity":"2424b7c1-8ebf-4655-9b8d-45f3d18230f4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-04-23 17:53:48","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":5541540,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryInformation.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-412959/v1/4a3848e34f8cb404b36b3ad8.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Self-adaptive multi-objective climate policies align mitigation and adaptation strategies","fulltext":[{"header":"Full Text","content":"\u003cp\u003eDue to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. However, the manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF.\u003c/p\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"climate change impacts, climate policies, emission reduction, mitigation, adaptation strategies","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-412959/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-412959/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"With intensifying climate change impacts, there is a risk that economic resources needed to adapt to the rising damages are diverted away from emission reduction, jeopardizing the chances of stabilizing temperature within safe levels.\r\nIndeed, the traditional static single-objective formulation leads to a conflict between mitigation and adaptation, invalidating the recently established consistency of cost-benefit analysis with Paris agreement targets.\r\nHere, we show that this tension can be resolved by integrating multi-objective optimization and feedback control in the DICE model to design self-adaptive climate policies trading off welfare maximization with Paris Agreement achievement.\r\nThese policies allow adjusting against uncertainty as information on the socio-climatic system accumulates thus more realistically representing the policy-making process.\r\nYears above 2°C are drastically reduced, and costs of meeting the Paris agreement lowered by 2 trillion USD emphasizing the need for integrating adaptation and mitigation strategies and the value of embracing a self-adaptive and multi-objective perspective.","manuscriptTitle":"Self-adaptive multi-objective climate policies align mitigation and adaptation strategies","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2021-04-23 17:50:46","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-412959/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"9abe132b-2dfd-4a8c-b379-ad3ca20e1627","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 23rd, 2021","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":3857298,"name":"Climate Analysis and Modeling"},{"id":3857299,"name":"Climatology"},{"id":3857300,"name":"Environmental Engineering"},{"id":3857301,"name":"Environmental Policy"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2022-02-07T18:25:43+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2021-04-23 17:50:46","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-412959","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-412959","identity":"rs-412959","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"J0_U0BvcaRcwD8yVFaRlm","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}